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For all of the hype associated with the upcoming British and Irish Lions tour, don’t expect the Brits to do anything fancy.
The final round of the Six Nations, and most notably the deciding game between Wales and England, provided a fairly clear pointer as to the playing style they will bring with them: direct, physical, combative and extremely disciplined.
They will use the tour games prior to the Test series to get all of the players on the same page, in terms of the principals that will underline their game.
They will try to ensure that every member of the squad is ready to go and is capable of stepping into the breach once the Tests get underway.
I’m not sure when the Lions will name their squad, or how many players will be in it, but it’s fairly obvious that the nucleus of the squad will be Welsh and English.
The scales have probably now tipped in favour of Welsh dominance after they comprehensively beat England.
That will inevitably impact on the nuances of their game: they will be quick on the counter-attack as the Welsh are, load up the breakdown to try and get quick ball as the Wallabies do, and quite possibly look at employing two openside flankers, as Wales did so successfully against England.
Don’t expect this all to lead to millions of tries!
Everyone in Australia knows how hard it was for the Wallabies to breach opposition goal-lines last year.
It was not for a lack of trying, and we weren’t the only ones who struggled.
Having access to the excellent verusco statistics we use to monitor our games: I looked up the overall try-scoring for all of the Test teams last year.
The result was quite telling, with New Zealand scoring 50 tries, while the next best nation got just 23.
Part of that was the impact of the refereeing, which allowed a genuine contest at the breakdown, resulting in slower ball.
We might not have beaten the All Blacks last year, but the fact that they could only score three tries (just six percent of their total tries for the year) against us in three Tests showed that even they are restricted when their opponents can match them at the breakdown.
Slow ball delivery allows the opposing defensive line to readjust, limiting the time and space available for counter attacking play.
Australia also had the added burden of a consistent run of injuries, which meant constant personnel change and the resulting organisational difficulties that flow on from that – although that’s for another column!
The Six Nations trends suggest a continuation of last year’s breakdown battles. Slow ball is on the cards, with tries likely to be at a premium during the Lions Tests. At the very least they will be hard earned!
There were 16 tries scored across the three games on the opening weekend.
The remaining four rounds provided just 21, from the 12 games played.
While bad weather contributed, the stats do highlight how tight the games were, and how much the international game is leveling out. (Who would have thought after our experience in Paris last year that France would finish last in the Six Nations?)
It also shows how effective the defensive lines were, and how good the Northern hemisphere teams have gotten at slowing the ball down at the breakdown; an area of the game where the teams from south of the equator had previously had pre-eminence.
That’s not to say the Lions games will necessarily be duds.
The atmosphere created by the Lions fans and their Australian counterparts will be amazing, while the games – even if not full of tries – should still get the blood pumping.
Look at the Wales series last year.
There were only nine tries across the three Tests, but no one who watched the games could say they were boring.
Ultimately, however, it’s all about winning.
There’s more satisfaction in winning 12-9, than losing 42-40.
That was reinforced after our tour-ending win over Wales, when Nathan Sharpe returned from the post-game press slightly exasperated after having been quizzed by a persistent, pre-determined Aussie journo over the fact that we’d only scored one try.
As soon as he mentioned the conversation, someone piped up with the fact that the All Blacks had scored three the same afternoon at Twickenham and had lost.
“Which dressing room would you rather be in right now?”
Hopefully we are saying the same thing after the end of the Lions!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.