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Two great rivals of recent times will finish off the first round of the 2013 AFL season, as Hawthorn host the Geelong Cats at the MCG for this Easter Monday clash. We’ll have live scores and commentary from 3.20pm.
Since Hawthorn upset Geelong in the Grand Final five years ago, the Cats have reeled off nine consecutive wins over the 2008 Premiers, most by margins of less than ten points.
In 2012, even though Hawthorn topped the ladder, they still couldn’t break the streak, losing twice by two points.
That run of losses hasn’t really damaged the general opinion that the Hawks are very serious flag challengers in 2013, favourites in many people’s eyes.
But things haven’t really gone their way recently. Injuries to Whitecross and Suckling will test their midfield depth, while Hodge, Rioli and new recruit Brian Lake have had interrupted pre-seasons.
The Buddy Franklin contract drama hasn’t helped either.
This is a chance for Hawthorn to put all of that past them and prove what a great football team they are.
They didn’t finish top of the ladder for nothing last season and with a midfield boasting Mitchell, Sewell, and Lewis and the best forwardline in the league bar none, they have more than enough firepower to go up against anyone with confidence.
The conventional wisdom is that after five years of near-dominance, the Cats’ fall into the bottom half of the eight in 2012 is just the beginning of an inevitable slide for this ageing team.
But they showed no signs of aging in the NAB Cup.
Indeed, the Cats only lost one match, to Fremantle in the West, enjoying wins over West Coast, Adelaide, North Melbourne and Collingwood.
What was most impressive was the way fringe players like Murdoch, Blicavs, Kersten, Caddy and Walker stepped up. All of a sudden it seems Geelong have plenty of depth.
The Cats do have concerns though, particularly over a series of injuries to their ruck division. James Kelly and Steve Johnson will also miss through suspension.
Both sides have genuine superstars in Mitchell and Selwood on the ball, and if either of them has a quiet day that could go a long way to deciding the result. Overall, the two midfields look pretty even.
While this is a close one to call, two factors point to the Cats today.
Firstly, based on the pre-season their preparation seems to be slightly ahead of Hawthorn.
Secondly, the Geelong defenders should be able to at least reduce the effectiveness of the Hawks’ forwardline, with Lonergan, Taylor and Rivers a strong force in the air.
Of course, you have to weight that against the advantage Hawthorn should have in the ruck today, and they probably have a bit more pace around the ground.
But overall I think Geelong should be able to extend this amazing streak to ten games.
Does the Kennett Curse continue? Find out from 3.20pm AEDT.
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