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With CEO Cameron Schwab’s resignation those baying for blood at Melbourne got their wish yesterday, but you still feel coach Mark Neeld isn’t out of the woods.
In fact, another big loss this week to West Coast will give the Neeld sacking story further legs.
One thing is clear. If proper evidence emerges that he has lost the players, obviously that’s it. He’s done.
But it’s mystifying that the foundation of every triple-figure loss has to be the coach ‘losing’ his players.
Those games seduce you into thinking these notions are accurate. When effort is so plainly lacking, we yearn for an comprehendible explanation.
To get that, though, we lose a sense of perspective.
What cannot be denied is that Saturday night was a massacre. A massacre that Melbourne contributed to significantly.
They laid 35 tackles despite Essendon having 452 disposals. That means the Bombers had at least 417 touches that were not contested by a Melbourne tackle.
After a week of complaints about a lack of effort, those numbers are unbelievable.
Across their two games this season, Melbourne are averaging 36 less inside 50s than their opponents. They are averaging 31 less contested possessions, an amazing 22 less than the next worst side.
They have the worst forward 50 efficiency in the comp and by far the worst defensive 50 efficiency.
Then there’s this stat: Saturday’s loss was Melbourne’s worst ever in 1,133 games at the MCG.
This is a team playing terrible football, and the numbers certainly back it up.
Now, to the perspective.
Melbourne were always going to go backwards this year. Always.
Many commentators have been trying to paint the club’s off-season moves as a recruiting spree. But it wasn’t that. It was a clean-out.
The players Melbourne lost last season racked up 6147 Supercoach points in 2012 (we can use this as a rough measure of their contribution across the season). The AFL-level players they gained had only 2765.
The players Melbourne lost last season had 1050 AFL games to their name (we can use this as a gauge of their experience). The players they gained had only 384.
Repeat after me: clean-out, not recruiting spree.
When you combine this with the fact the teams that generated three of the Dees’ four wins last year – Gold Coast and GWS – are almost certain to improve, the idea of Melbourne going forward this year was always going to seem far-fetched.
To be fair, you might have been optimistic on the basis of an easier draw or the fact Jack Grimes, Jack Trengove and Jack Watts are all at a stage players of their quality typically ‘break out’.
But to view Melbourne being destined for a bottom two finish as unexpected is wrong.
Of course, that’s not to say last year’s exchange period hasn’t been brought under the microscope the past two weeks.
“The same mistakes have been made again,” said David King on AFL 360.
I’d argue the complete opposite of that.
They traded pick 20 for Chris Dawes, which on the surface sounds like a rough deal. But what can we honestly expect the Melbourne footy club to extract from pick 20?
I asked the question last year and got a surprising answer.
In the top ten at Melbourne’s best and fairest last season, only one player was drafted between picks 15 and 32. That draft was in 2002 and the player, Jared Rivers, is no longer at the club.
Even inside the top 20, they’ve struggled. An article by Jon Ralph this week pointed out that of the 12 top-20 picks the Dees have had since 2006, half are already gone.
Without any major changes to the club’s investment in recruiting and development, hanging on to pick 20 would’ve meant a minuscule chance of finding even a decent AFL player.
It’s at this point you might ask: why don’t they address the issue of recruiting and development?
To that I’d say, absolutely. What a good point! You’ve hit the real issue!
Just don’t try and sell me the idea that the off-season moves were irresponsible.
Those moves, given the circumstances and past evidence and no indication of change to recruiting or development, were right and pragmatic choices.
None of this puts Mark Neeld’s job under any less scrutiny, though. It’s all about the performance that’s dished up on weekends and by that measure, 2013 thus far has been an absolute failure.
Last year certain performances put another coach under pressure. That coach was Matthew Primus.
Port Adelaide, like the Dees, had their very existence questioned after major losses. One truly embarrassing loss ended the coaching tenure of Primus.
So it’s interesting then to look back on what Port faced when looking for a new coach.
As it turned out, no one wanted to go there. Port were keen to get an experienced coach such as Rodney Eade or Brett Ratten.
When those two pulled out of the race, it was on to Leon Cameron. He promptly signed up to be Kevin Sheedy’s successor.
None of this is to say that Ken Hinkley doesn’t deserve his opportunity to coach senior footy. He does. There’s a warning in this story, though.
The grass may look greener on the other side, but it’s a tough gig convincing the coach standing on that grass to come to a club that is widely considered a basket case.
Ask yourself: Who would want to coach the Melbourne footy club as it currently stands?
Their recruiting and development record means that unless major changes take place, even if you coached to the highest of your abilities, the chances of dragging the club out of the dirt are minimal. Who would want to sign up for that?
Mark Neeld may not be the next Melbourne premiership coach. Right now you’d get very long odds on that ever happening.
But taking the emotion out of it, and disregarding any overly-optimistic expectations for 2013, and taking the half-baked opinions on last off-season out of it, sacking him would achieve so very little.
If we can give Neeld credit for one thing, it’s that at the end of the last year he did what others around that club have a glaring track record of not doing.
He made the hard calls on those who were clearly no longer a part of the club’s future.
He gave up 1050 games worth of AFL experience and put his job firmly on the line in the process.
Right now, the Melbourne Football Club needs more men like that, not less.