The NBA regular season is finally over and we can move our attention to the games that matter. The first round has a number of fascinating series across both conferences, with several upsets possible.
Here is a preview of the first round match-ups in the Eastern Conference.
Miami Heat (1) versus Milwaukee Bucks (8)
Miami’s big three are fit, rested and ready to go. The Heat enters the playoffs having won 37 of their last 39 games. They are imposing numbers when you consider that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh missed 4, 6, and 4 games respectively in April.
As always the Heat’s fortunes will be driven by James and Wade. Miami will want to keep the ball moving on offence, shifting the Bucks’ defence until their rotations begin to fail. Defensively they will need to pick it up a notch, with the patented Miami brand of defence missing for much of the season.
During the 27 game winning streak the Heat often found themselves behind early in the contest before turning it on for five or ten minute periods to take control of the game. That type of play will not cut it during the playoffs.
Milwaukee return to the playoffs after missing out for the past two seasons. They gave the Heat fits during their first two meeting this season, an overtime Miami victory in November and a Milwaukee win at the end of 2012.
But the Heat easily had the better of their final two meetings.
For the Bucks the key will be how much offence they generate out of their often streaky scorers Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and J.J. Redick. Quality outside shooting and quickness is going to be the best way that the Bucks can dismantle the Heat’s defence.
Another factor for the Bucks will be whether Larry Sanders can avoid foul trouble and intimidate the Heat inside. If you can force the Heat into making middle range shots they become more beatable.
The Bucks should be competitive throughout the series and may even snatch a game at home but the Heat should be far too good.
Heat in five.
New York Knicks (2) versus Boston Celtics (7)
The Knicks went on a late season tear to gain the second seed in the Eastern Conference. On the back of some superb offensive play by Carmello Anthony, they won 13 games in a row before falling to the Bulls on 11 April.
To progress the Knicks will need a big series by two players: Anthony and Tyson Chandler.
Anthony’s dominant offensive display in early April came on the back of some exceptional outside shooting.
A big concern for the Knicks must be whether he can continue to play at that level.
The mid-range jump shot is the least efficient shot in basketball and usually players who rely on that shot are doomed to be inefficient scorers. Anthony relies on the mid-range jump shot more than the games other elite scorers. As a result, his scoring can be more volatile than the likes of Kevin Durant or LeBron James.
Chandler is an underrated interior defender who for mine is every bit as important as Anthony in determining whether the Knicks advance. In my opinion, Chandler needs to play at least 35 minutes a game for the Knicks to progress far into these playoffs.
The Celtics would have been counting down the days until the playoffs began for months.
For a veteran team, the regular season is simply a warm up for the real thing. The Celtics are old and banged up but they are designed to be a playoff team.
Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are playoff-hardened, while Jeff Green has surprised everyone by becoming a genuinely good player after recovering from heart surgery.
The Celtics can win this series by playing superior defence and controlling the pace of the game. At the very least they will make Anthony and the Knicks work for every basket.
Based on regular season performance the Knicks should win but there is certainly upset potential in this series. Anthony is a perennial underachiever in the playoffs and wouldn’t it feel wrong if the Celtics went out in the first round?
Knicks in seven.
Indiana Pacers (3) versus Atlanta Hawks (6)
Indiana’s success in these playoffs will be determined by one thing: defence.
The Pacers were the league’s best team defensively throughout the regular season. They play a methodical brand of basketball, where they often grind out victories rather than dominate with offensive flair.
Luckily for the Pacers, that is exactly the style of basketball that is successful in the playoffs.
Roy Hibbert will prove to be the most important Pacer in the playoffs; the difference between his best and worst is still too far but if he can become an intimidating inside presence night-in and night-out it could be a difference maker for the Pacers.
Atlanta has a number of nice pieces. Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague are very good players who could play a quality role in a deep playoff run. But the Hawks miss a genuine star who can bring it all together and make the team better than the sum of their parts.
Although the regular season series is tied 2-all I think this will prove to be a too tough an ask for the Hawks.
Indiana in five.
Brooklyn Nets (4) versus Chicago Bulls (5)
Brooklyn may have the superior regular season record but I think Chicago is the team to beat in this series.
Bull’s coach Tom Thibodeau confirmed this season that he is one of the league’s best coaches by squeezing so much out of a team that missed former-MVP Derrick Rose all year.
The Bulls remain hopeful that Rose might come back but the reality is that his return might prove too disruptive to a Bulls team that is used to playing without their superstar.
The key match-up will be at the centre position with the Nets’ Brook Lopez battling Chicago’s Joakim Noah. It has become increasingly rare to witness a series determining match-up in the pivot but this should be one of them.
For the Bulls the greatest risk is offensive stagnation. They have, at times, struggled offensively this season and for periods you could swear that you watching the worst team in the league. The Bulls will need to limit these occurrences if they want to progress to the second round.
For the Nets, their best hope is the recent brilliant play by point guard Deron Williams.
His performance before the All-Star game was well below expectations but since then he has averaged 23.4 points and 8.1 assists per game. The Nets will need every bit of that production if they hope to scrape through to the second round.
Bulls in six.
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