The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

Round 4 tips: Sydney in a close one, Bombers, Port to continue streak

Roar Rookie
18th April, 2013
0

This week gives us a group of matches that is proving very hard to dissect in terms of deciding on nine winners. Anyways, here goes:

Sydney v Geelong – SCG, 7:50pm* – Friday, April 19

*All times in EST

The reigning premiers seem to have improved each week and now look ready to take a real scalp after beating GWS, Gold Coast and North Melbourne.

The 2011 flag winners have looked solid as always to also be 3-0 with hard-fought victories over Hawthorn, North and Carlton.

Therein lies the problem with tipping this game. Both sides are quality, have in-form midfields, and a number of avenues to goal.

Many have spoken about the Cats coming off the back of three six-day breaks in a row but I’m not too sure that will be a huge issue at this stage of the season.

Chris Scott keeps getting his players up when it counts and that could be the case again, however, I point your attention to the alarming stat that has Geelong placed lowest in the league in clearances.

Advertisement

Up against a Swans outfit who lap up contested ball on the narrow and crowded SCG, the Cats could struggle to get enough delivery into the forward 50 and I feel this is the reason why Sydney will do enough to get over the line.

The Cats don’t know how to lay down but tonight they simply may not get enough ball to kick a winning score over a Sydney side who are unlikely to allow them to run over the top.

Prediction: Sydney by 10.

Hawthorn v Fremantle – Aurora Stadium (TAS), 1:45pm – Saturday, April 20

Hawthorn are flying after two huge wins over top-four hopefuls West Coast and Collingwood, brushing them both aside with apparent ease.

Fremantle were flying but succumbed to the character and spirit of Essendon last week in a low-scoring affair in difficult conditions in Perth.

Tomorrow they meet in Launceston where the Hawks have won all six of their outings against the Dockers and I expect them to make it seven in the current form they are in.

Advertisement

There are too many midfield winners and the forward line will exploit Freo’s backline after kicking 23 and 22 goals in their past two outings respectively.

The loss of Matthew Pavlich is enormous even though his form has not been outstanding.

The Dockers will miss his leadership and I struggle to see where they will win this one with everything against them whereas the Hawks are up and running and looking to establish themselves in the top few sides in the league.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 24.

Richmond v Collingwood – MCG, 2:10pm – Saturday, April 20

The arch rivals meet on a rare Saturday afternoon match at the MCG with both sides sitting in the eight together for the first time in what seems like forever (not Collingwood’s fault).

The Tigers were consummate in hammering the Bulldogs last week whilst the Pies started brilliantly before inexplicably dying off against the Hawks to eventually lose by 55 points.

Advertisement

A lot of that had to do with the absence of captain Nick Maxwell and although many may not agree with me, I feel he brings so much to the backline with his direction, zoning off and ability to cover space.

Again he misses, giving Richmond a great chance to get one over their old foes, mainly by being smart with their ball use going forward.

Jack Riewoldt, Ty Vickery and Luke McGuane are beginning to create a dangerous forward line for Damien Hardwick and with a midfield of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio in fine fettle, I’m going to stick with the Tigers yet again.

Sure, Collingwood have a plethora of ball winners of their own in Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas (second week back) and Travis Cloke could provide either Troy Chaplin, Dylan Grimes or Alex Rance with a headache but I believe Richmond can strike while the iron is hot and get the Pies on a day where they are missing key players in Maxwell, Darren Jolly and Dayne Beams.

Prediction: Richmond by nine.

St Kilda v Essendon – Etihad Stadium, 4:40pm – Saturday, April 20

The Saints opened their account last week with a solid 72-point drubbing of GWS and did it without relying too heavily on their group of veterans.

Advertisement

David Armitage was enormous, Ahmed Saad, Beau Maister and Terry Milera helped Nick Riewoldt and Stephen Milne (back to some semblance of form) kick a winning score whilst Jack Steven, Dylan Roberton and Jarryn Geary were all at the top end of the stats columns.

That bodes well after their opening two rounds when they battled with many thanks to Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna (who was back for the Richmond loss) so to have some more contributors must be pleasing for Scott Watters.

Essendon have dealt with all before them thus far, culminating in a morale-boosting win over Freo in Perth last week when they were seemingly beaten half way through the second quarter.

The Dons have lost Dustin Fletcher to injury and Paddy Ryder to suspension, both huge outs, but get back David Hille to help Tom Bellchambers negate the influential Ben McEvoy in the ruck.

Tayte Pears is a decent inclusion for the backline whilst Jason Winderlich will add to the speed of the Bombers midfielders which should again supply Stewart Crameri and Michael Hurley up forward.

The Brendon Goddard factor could work in the favour of the Saints as they may look to prove a point as to why he departed the club at the end of last season but I just feel that James Hird’s Dons still possess enough spirit to make it four on the trot.

Prediction: Essendon by 15.

Advertisement

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – Metricon Stadium, 7:40pm – Saturday, April 20

The ever-improving Gold Coast almost got the chocolates against Brisbane last week but fell short by two points – a result they will be determined to overcome as soon as possible.

Port have flown under the radar thus far after beating Melbourne and GWS but turned heads by getting the better of showdown rivals Adelaide in a tough one on Sunday.

That will surely restore the winning culture which the club enjoyed in the early 2000s and I have expectations that they will be good enough to make it four from four by beating the Suns.

Justin Westhoff is dominating all over the park and the inclusion of Robbie Gray will only add to the Power’s overall quality as a small forward with midfield capabilities.

Ken Hinkley has a fairly solid group on his hands which should be able to travel to Carrara and produce a winning performance, although it will not be easy against an outfit consisting of Gary Ablett, Harley Bennell, Jarrod Harbrow, Greg Broughton, Brandon Matera and the like.

Prediction: Port by 18.

Advertisement

West Coast v Carlton – Patersons Stadium, 7:40pm – Saturday, April 20

West Coast will be widely backed to win this one seeing because of the home factor but do not discount Carlton when playing at Subiaco.

Since 2006, the Blues have won two and lost four away against the Eagles with three of those defeats being by 10 points (twice) and three points.

This shows that they are an extremely capable side on the vast expanses of Patersons Stadium and that they usually get themselves up for a battle with the West Coasters.

This time around, the Blues are up against it and desperately need their first win under Mick Malthouse before the knives come out.

In a similar situation are the Eagles who have only produced one victory so far in the form of an ‘easy kill’ over Melbourne last week.

That may have reinstated their hunger for victories and I suggest they will be able to get the better of a Carlton side who lose Matthew Kreuzer to a thumb injury.

Advertisement

His absence in the ruck will give the returning Robert Warnock too much to do against Dean Cox and he will certainly require the assistance of Shaun Hampson and Sam Rowe.

West Coast will be looking for third-gamer Cal Sinclair to give Cox a chop out in the middle but they can also utilise his goalscoring ability to hurt Carlton going the other way.

All in all, this match appears very interesting on both paper and form but West Coast are slowly finding their feet and will make it two on the trot to heap further misery on the Blues.

Prediction: West Coast by 16.

Melbourne v GWS Giants – MCG, 1:10pm – Sunday, April 21

Wow. How do you confidently select a winner for this one?

I thought that GWS were on the road to massive improvement after their first two outings but they failed dismally when hammered by the Saints last week.

Advertisement

The Giants did not put up much of a fight after testing Sydney and at times Port in their opening two outings which does not give me a lot of assuredness as they get set to travel to Melbourne to take on a Demons side struggling for any fluidity on the field.

It is really hard to predict what will occur at the ‘G on Sunday but after seeing the Dees at least almost break even with West Coast for a half last week, I have been swayed to back them in.

Surely the likes of Colin Sylvia, Nathan Jones, Jack Trengove, Jack Grimes and Mark Jamar can win enough ball out of the middle for Mitch Clark and Jeremy Howe to get on the end of and give Mark Neeld a much-needed four points.

Not saying this with much confidence at all though.

Prediction: Melbourne by 10.

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs – AAMI Stadium, 3:20pm – Sunday, April 21

After seeing the Bulldogs firsthand last week, I can safely say that they need a rocket up the backside!

Advertisement

In their 67-point loss to Richmond, the Doggies midfield let their opponents completely off the hook, allowing them to do as they pleased at Etihad.

Thank god skipper Matt Boyd is back as he will demand so much more from his teammates, especially around the stoppages, and give some impetus back after a massive letdown.

Their form before that was decent with a comfortable win over Brisbane preceding an ok three-quarter effort against Freo and they will be hoping for more of that when they travel to Adelaide.

Injuries have already punished the Dogs and again they are the victims of medical issues with Bob Murphy (calf), Shaun Higgins (foot), Easton Wood (hamstring) and Tory Dickson (ankle) all out this week.

As previously mentioned, Boyd is back to win the footy out of the middle but the rest of the inclusions are unproven and only add to the Dogs inexperience.

The Crows will be looking to exploit that fact and will be desperate to get their season on track after dropping their SA derby to Port last week following an unconvincing win over the Lions.

All the pre-season formguides would be leaning towards the Crows on this one and although it appears it is a bit of a danger game, I just cannot see the Bulldogs kicking anywhere near a winning score.

Advertisement

Prediction: Adelaide by 25.

North Melbourne v Brisbane – Etihad Stadium, 4:40pm – Sunday, April 21

Surely this is the week North break their duck egg! Three decent performances have ended in losses to Collingwood, Geelong (unlucky) and Sydney (led at half-time before being overrun).

The problem for me is that the Kangas have leaked over 100 points in each of their first three matches which has them sitting with the third worst ‘against’ score in the comp.

Luckily, they are facing a Lions side who have kicked the third least in the opening three rounds and if it wasn’t for Jonny Brown’s haul of five against the Suns last week, their goalkicking list would be looking very bleak.

North took it right up to the Cats before a good first half against the Swans which is form they need to sustain if they want to repeat last season’s top-eight finish.

Lindsay Thomas was again in the goals but Robbie Tarrant will miss with a leg injury whilst the jury is still widely out on Lachie Hansen.

Advertisement

Andrew Swallow is the midfield key, Ben Cunnington is ever-improving, Daniel Wells needs to contribute more often than not and the likes of Jack Ziebell, Ryan Bastinac and Aaron Mullett (so impressive) are now being relied upon to get big numbers.

This has to be the week where North break through and I am tipping them to do so against a Lions outfit that simply struggles to score heavily enough.

Prediction: North by 20.

Suggested multi-bet

Choose your own line with Sportsbet

Geelong +22.5 ($1.42)

Essendon -7.5 ($1.64)

Advertisement

West Coast 1-39 ($2.15)

North -12.5 ($1.56)

Total: $7.81

Add some value

Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.20)

Makes the total: $17.18

close