- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Through the first four rounds of the 2013 AFL season, scoring has increased significantly over the same period in 2012 and, if maintained, would result in the highest scoring season since 2000.
AFL teams are averaging 99 points per game during the first four rounds, up from 92 points per game during the first four rounds of 2012.
It marks a noticeable change for a sport that has placed greater focus on defensive zones and defensive presses following the rise of St Kilda and Collingwood in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
To some extent the increase in aggregate scoring reflects the natural improvement of the two expansion teams.
The Gold Coast Suns are averaging 80 points per game this season, up from 62 points per game at this point in 2012. By comparison, Greater Western Sydney has increased their scoring by 29 points per game.
The biggest improver, though, has been Port Adelaide, who is averaging 40 points more than they were at this time last year at 122 points per game.
The change in Port’s form is so large that they account for around a third of the change in scoring by themselves.
But the upward trend is broadly consistent across the league, with only six teams averaging fewer points per game than they did at this point in 2012.
Yes, even Melbourne is scoring more freely having averaging 10 more points per game so far this season.
Accuracy is also up having increased to almost 54 per cent in 2013, compared with 52 per cent over the first four rounds of 2012.
Teams appear to be playing a more attacking brand of football, which may have benefited from fewer free kicks paid per game (total free kicks are down by four per game) and a decline in stoppages.
To some extent these trends, and the higher scoring, may be a by-product of the new rules regarding tackling and below-the-knee contact. Both rules make it riskier to go to ground, which should in theory reduce the likelihood of stoppages.
Although there may be some positive consequences, the below-the-knee contact rule remains contrary to players’ natural instincts, too frequently penalises the player who wants the ball the most and reflects a knee-jerk reaction to a single isolated incident.
Is greater scoring sufficient compensation?
The high possession style popularised by West Coast and Geelong through 2006 and 2007 continues to fall out of favour. Average disposals are down to their lowest level since 2007, with teams averaging 14 fewer handballs per game compared with this point in 2012.
These changes are consistent with the notion that a smaller bench will result in more direct play as player’s fatigue.
Will these scoring trends persist? In 2012 they did, with early season scoring trends persisted through to the end of the home and away season.
However, history suggests that coaches will not be pleased with the number of ‘shootouts’ that have occurred so far this season and lower scoring games may become more likely at the season progresses.
At the very least, the early season scoring trends are indicative of more competitive games across the league.
The expansion teams are not yet ‘AFL quality’ but they are a lot closer than they were last season, while the dramatic change in Port Adelaide’s game style is remarkable to see.
Overall, it points to a more enjoyable season than 2012.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.