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Every rugby team has a plan and a style. Usually that plan comes from the coach and is represented on the field by the leadership of the team.
On Saturday night the Reds spent over 12 minutes inside the Brumbies’ 22m area, but were too predictable in attack and couldn’t punch through the desperate defence enough.
One of the Reds’ 10 campaigns into the 22m area lasted a full eight minutes and saw them receive six penalties.
They also had 63 percent possession and 61 percent territorial advantage – all huge numbers.
We now know it’s not the size that counts; it’s what you do with it.
I don’t want to focus on the possibility of another card being issued or a penalty try. Here I want to look at the game theory at play. While less controversial, I think it is more interesting.
Broadly speaking, Jake White’s rugby teams play aggressive, physical rugby. They rely on the percentages falling their way if they stay on the right side of field position, handling errors and penalty kicks.
His Brumbies have been lauded for playing expansive rugby. I would temper that and say his teams are more ruthless than purposefully expansive.
For the most part they do the foundation parts of rugby relentlessly well and when the opposition finally flinches, they pounce.
There’s nothing wrong with that and it’s been effective in international rugby and now Super Rugby for Jake White.
Ewen McKenzie as a coach is hard to pin down.
I would suggest he employs a degree of Amoeba philosophy. The New England Patriots in America have been famous for this philosophy of constantly changing and adapting week-to-week based on what the opposition can do.
This has been McKenzie’s tactical approach at the Reds and as a coach he employs this philosophy more than most.
One week, such as against the Rebels earlier this year, the Reds will play to pin the opposition inside their 22 through field reversing kicks.
Other times they plan to keep the ball in hand at all costs and drive it through the middle of the forwards.
Other weeks the Reds will employ an almost exclusive inside-outside game, where the ball is either in pick and drive or being flung to the far reaches of the pitch – such as against the Chiefs at Suncorp last year.
He is also usually adept at adjusting that plan, especially after half time. The Chiefs game last year is a perfect example. A side to side game in the first half morphed into a pointed narrow ruck edged attack in the second stanza.
The Reds amoeba this week was a determination to play the ball through the forwards and keep the ball to score tries rather than kicking goals.
Some people derided the Reds for not taking the points on offer. That is a good point. Some of those people also said that 16 penalties kicked would be worth 48 points. That doesn’t stack up as correct.
It’s not true the Reds would have received so many penalties back to back if they had have kicked their first one. That would have stopped the run of play and the Brumbies would have kicked them back into their half off the restart.
We could see how hard it was to gain ascendancy throughout the match and particularly at the end, when both sides were trying to find a way into enemy territory again but couldn’t manage to flip the field position decisively.
Ultimately the Reds paid the penalty for not keeping to the overall philosophy of adapting their shape to the opposition when their plan isn’t working well during the game.
The way the Reds set up Rod Davies’ try by using the forwards to suck in defenders on one side of the field and swing it quickly the other way to find the open wing was brilliant. It also appears to be an anomaly – outside what was planned for the match.
Every other campaign inside the Reds 22m area resulted in them keeping it tight to the detriment of the space created out wide by driving forwards.
We heard audio on the field of Genia saying, “We go again.”
James Horwill was also urging his forwards to drive through the Brumbies.
An intelligent decision, in keeping with McKenzie’s penchant for changing his plan to suit the occasion, would have been to instruct the team to replicate the Davies try while they had the man advantage.
They would have capitalised sooner and given themselves time to score again.
The Brumbies, on the other hand, stuck to their plan of defending like men possessed, playing the percentage of field position when they could and the percentage of a penalty being less costly than a try.
On game-day this was enough to ensure the Brumbies a draw even though they were clearly beaten in most aspects of rugby.
This game also showed that while the Reds might have marginally better playing stock, a small failing in game theory can nullify that difference.
A small thought for free
It seems like there is trouble at the Reds in terms of contracts not being fully paid by third parties. The principal concern is Wallabies winger Digby Ioane not being there next year.
I have many thoughts about the overall state of contractual negotiations and arrangements in Australian rugby. I won’t go into this all here.
I wrote a while ago that Michael Cheika of the Waratahs might look to the Reds as a source of quality Super Rugby talent while he renews his squad this off season.
The Reds losing Digby Ioane may ultimately be a blessing in disguise. He is a quality player but was surely taking up a large chunk of the payroll at the club.
It might mean the newly available cap space would be put to good use keeping the likes of Liam Gill, Ben Tapuai and Rob Simmons at the club longer.
It may even help them retain the second tier players that are still vital to squad depth over a long season such as Jono Lance, Saia Faingaa and others.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.