If you didn’t put your house on the Miami Heat for a title in the past months, you can today.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Russell Westbrook has been hobbled by a meniscus tear in his knee.
The Thunder and the NBA have been robbed of one of the best players in the world right now.
But it’s just one in a long line of moves that has made the Heat the only team anyone would logically put money on for the championship.
Before the season there were a couple of genuine contenders and a few more floaters hoping to make the next step.
Those teams, in no particular order, were OKC, San Antonio Spurs, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies. Unfortunately, none of those teams have gotten any closer to the Heat.
At the start of the season, the Thunder got a little bit less imposing when they traded away James Harden — and a few ancillary members of their second unit — for serviceable scorer, Kevin Martin and D-League regular, Jeremy Lamb.
Despite, or more likely because of the trade, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook stepped up in true superstar style and led their team to a 62-win season with help from an improved Serge Ibaka.
It looked as if they were primed for a playoff-run and another epic showdown with Miami in the finals. While OKC will probably still make the finals, giving LeBron James and the Miami Heat a legitimate run for their money is far less likely.
As old of a story as it may be, the Spurs are simply another year older.
Tiago Splitter is better than he was last season and Tim Duncan’s still doing what he’s been doing for the last decade-and-a-half but Tony Parker isn’t quite himself thanks to an injury.
Overall they haven’t gotten any worse than they were last year but unfortunately they also haven’t made many strides to get significantly better either.
The Bulls could have been a genuine threat in the East this year had Derrick Rose made a successful comeback from his torn anterior-cruciate ligament. But, for whatever reason, he didn’t.
In addition to no Derrick Rose, Chicago management also more or less jettisoned some of their best back-ups before the 2012-’13 season began.
Without Kyle Korver — the epitome of a knock-down 3-point shooter — and Omer Asik — arguably the best bench defensive center in the league — the Bulls were never really given a fighting chance.
Still, coach Tom Thibodeau did a remarkable job of getting a team of also-rans to the fifth seed, but with defensive anchor Joakim Noah hobbled and bench asset Taj Gibson out injured, they simply don’t have the firepower to put the blowtorch, or even a match, to the South-Floridians.
The Knicks, thanks to Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith are one of very few teams that can match it with Miami in terms of half-court scoring ability.
Melo has been an absolute monster all season but even more so recently and JR Smith has turned what were once sporadic flashes of brilliance into a regular and consistent scoring output.
However, LeBron is the most versatile defender in the NBA and is one of a select few of people that can slow down Carmelo Anthony. The same can’t be said of Carmelo though.
Every now and then he applies himself on the defensive end but in a seven-game series between the two, LeBron will get his offensive numbers more often than not. The the Kenyon Martin-Chris Bosh match-up will be an intriguing one, as will the battle between Smith and Dwyane Wade, but only really at one end of the floor.
Despite the Knicks’ typical NYC flair, it will be their inability to stop LeBron and Wade that will ultimately bring about their downfall.
NB: look out for the inevitable K-Mart/JR versus Chris Andersen scuffle.
On paper, the Indiana Pacers look like a superb match-up for the Heat. Roy Hibbert is a devastating interior defender and has size to burn over the Heat’s “bigs”.
Paul George and Lance Stephenson have the length, athleticism and instincts to bother LeBron and Wade at the defensive end.
During this season George has emerged as a genuine star and David West has regained his early-2000s form. This season though, they’re without Danny Granger who, for all his downfalls, was important in last year’s series with his ability to get under LeBron’s skin.
The Pacers were a team that couldn’t really afford to lose any production. The Heat don’t have to do much more than they did last year to win any possible series against the Pacers this season.
The Boston Celtics’ window was basically closed after last season anyway but they didn’t do themselves any favours with their off-season moves. Letting Ray Allen go left them vulnerable.
It looked like replacing him with an amalgamation of Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jordan Crawford might just work but that proved an unreliable response.
Terry has been a shadow of his 2011 self, Lee has been a good defender but his limited offense hasn’t been there all season, and Crawford continues to be the most frustrating Celtic on a team that includes the ever-erratic Jeff Green.
Throw in an ACL tear to star point guard Rajon Rondo and the Celtics have been robbed of even a puncher’s chance in any playoff series of note.
The only bright spots have been the consistent play of the 94-foot pest Avery Bradley, the continued strong play of the wily Paul Pierce and a logic-defying season from octogenarian Kevin Garnett.
However, none of those are factors that worry any powerhouse NBA teams this season and two of them will be gone, if not next year, certainly the year after.
The Memphis Grizzlies, like Indiana, are another team who’ve lost a strong but flawed small forward. After the Rudy Gay trade they still looked to be an excellent team built on the stingiest defence in the league but as we roll into the playoffs, their offense is looking somewhat stagnant.
Zach Randolph isn’t his once dominant self, Tony Allen is no real scoring threat, Mike Conley is a decent offensive point guard but come crunch time has often been found wanting and Tayshaun Prince is another NBA player who’s past his best.
Getting a win in the Memphis grind house is a feat for any team but the Grizz will struggle in any seven-game series if their opponent can regularly get 85-90 points, something Miami can do in their sleep.
And while the rest of the NBA’s elite are floundering around making changes and toiling to try and reach the bottom of the Heat’s Air Jordans, Miami has just gotten stronger.
In the off-season they added Ray Allen who has been fulfilling his role perfectly and with a sizeable chip on his shoulder all season.
And during the season they picked up Chris Andersen. The Birdman has brought some much needed energy and defence to the Heat’s bench unit and his impact was on full display in their Game 1 drubbing of Milwaukee.
Even their pedestrian signings haven’t affected them negatively. Some people thought Rashard Lewis might play a slightly bigger role than he has this season but when they’ve needed him, he’s stepped in and done what he’s had to.
In addition to this, LeBron has somehow improved on his 11-12 campaign, Wade overcame some early hiccups to get back to an all-star standard, and Chris Bosh has become more comfortable playing James Worthy to LeBron and Wade’s Magic and Kareem.
The result of these improvements, only accumulating 16 losses from 82 appearances this season. Don’t be surprised if we only see two more before the finals.
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