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We are only five rounds in, but some teams have already shown enough to indicate that they will not feature in the September action.
Below are the teams that can safely organise their end of season trips, family holidays and weddings for September.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
This is no surprise as even coach Kevin Sheedy would not expect the Giants to make the eight in their second season.
Although the Giants have yet to win a game they have been more competitive than they were during 2012, with a percentage of 64 percent compared with 46 percent last season. For the Giants, growth should be measured more in competitiveness rather than in wins and losses.
But the future remains bright for the Giants. They have dramatically improved their forward line play, while the improvement of youngsters such as Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio and Jonathan Patton (pre-injury) indicate that the future is rosy for the Western Sydney club.
Of some concern is the early season struggles of Toby Greene, who has found it more difficult now that he receives more attention from opposing players.
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne’s struggles have been well-documented both on The Roar and elsewhere.
It became obvious that the Demons were no hope of featuring in September about half-way through the third quarter of their 79-point loss to Port Adelaide in Round 1. Coupled with a 148 point demolition at the hands of Essendon a week later, some were left wondering whether the Demons were one of the worst teams of all-time.
But the Demons scrapped together a win against Greater Western Sydney, with a dominant last quarter more than offsetting a disappointing performance over the first three quarters. However, after five rounds the Demons have only won two quarters of football (by comparison, the next worst is the Giants with five quarters won).
It is unlikely that the Demons will win more than a few games in 2013, and many expect significant changes over the off-season. The only shining light to date is that they will likely avoid the wooden spoon.
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs surprised everyone in Round 1 with a stunning win over the NAB Cup champions the Brisbane Lions. As the weeks progressed we discovered that the victory probably said more about Brisbane than it did about a Dogs’ resurgence.
This season will be tough for the Dogs, and their fans should not expect more than a handful of victories. But at least the Dogs have been more competitive than many had expected, particularly last weekend against an undefeated Cats outfit.
For the Dogs this season is about developing young talent and creating the foundations that can lead to another finals assault. The growth in youngster Tom Liberatore has been remarkable, particularly considering how he finished last season, and Mitch Wallis continues to be an exciting prospect.
The challenge for the Dogs will be whether their youngsters can improve quickly enough to return to the finals before their older players such as Matthew Boyd, Robert Murphy and Daniel Cross retire.
St Kilda Saints
After five rounds the only team that the Saints have defeated is Greater Western Sydney. They have suffered losses against both Gold Coast and Richmond, two teams that their supporters would have considered them good chances for victory.
The big names are still there for the Saints, but increasingly there are too many passengers in the St Kilda line-up.
Nick Reiwoldt has been exceptional this season and is possibly playing his best football since he tore his hamstring in 2010. Both Leigh Montagna and Ben McEvoy are playing excellent football, while Lenny Hayes still leads by example even if he is not quite the footballer he once was.
But the responsibilities have been left to too few and there is a genuine lack of depth at the Saints.
The coaching staff should be happy with the development of Jack Stevens and Steven Armitage, but otherwise there has been little to celebrate for coach Scott Watters and the Saints’ fans.
Brisbane Lions
Following an excellent NAB Cup win expectations were high for the Brisbane Lions this season. Rightfully so given their finish to the 2012 season which saw them storm home to finish on ten wins.
But a shock 68-point loss to the Dogs in the first round forced many of us to re-evaluate the Lions. Normally pre-season form is a solid indicator of how a team is travelling and it was perfectly reasonable for analysts to have high expectations for the Lions. But those expectations have not been realised and the Lions are playing uninspired football.
Captain Jonathan Brown has struggled, with the years of punishment finally catching up with him. Statistically his season seems reasonable but it reflects two solid performances against Melbourne and Gold Coast, while he has managed just one goal in his other three games against more highly-regarded opposition.
Champion midfielder Simon Black has yet to play a game and might make a difference when he returns, but at 34 years old he should no longer be expected to carry the midfield load.
It has not been all bad news. Pearce Hanley has been excellent, while Tom Rockliff has returned to his best after an, at times, inconsistent 2012 season. Brent Moloney has proved to be an inspired free agent signing and it is simply amazing that he could not get a game for Melbourne last year.
Brisbane could certainly turn it around but they will need Brown to be performing at a high level to do so. I would not be hugely surprised if they were contending for the finals later in the season, but for now I think they will prove to be one of the disappointments of 2013.
Gold Coast Suns
After five games they have two wins and a percentage of 95 percent. They have also won ten of the twenty quarters they have contested. Coach Guy McKenna must be pleased with his Suns’ progression this season.
The Suns will fall short of the finals but it is becoming increasingly obvious that they are improving at a rapid rate. It would not surprise this analyst if they are contention for the top eight in 2014.
Ablett has been excellent as always, but it has been the improved form of the Suns’ youngsters which have accounted for the dramatic improvement. Charlie Dixon is playing inspired football, while so far Jaegar O’Meara is proving to be every bit as good as the hype suggested. Swallow, Bennell and Prestia are also playing great football.
Nevertheless with the team so young it is still going to be difficult to finish the season, and when the better teams begin to flex their muscles the Suns will find themselves at the end of some large thrashings.
The two biggest omissions from this list are West Coast and North Melbourne.
West Coast have been far from impressive this season but they have won more quarters than they have lost, which indicates that they are better than their record suggests. North is similar, having suffered tight losses to the likes of Hawthorn and Geelong.
At one-and-four it would be easy to discount both teams’ finals aspirations but they remain only two games outside the eight. North in particular are playing football that would beat many higher placed opponents.
West Coast has not played good football this season, but with a range of quality personnel set to return I believe they will come home strongly over the second half of the season.
We are only five rounds in but already six teams have little chance of featuring in September. For fans of Greater Western Sydney, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Brisbane and Gold Coast it will be a long season.
Some fans will be bitterly disappointed as their team falls short of expectations, while for fans of the Dogs, Suns and Giants I expect they will simply be happy to see the steady improvement of their young talent.
That leaves twelve teams fighting for the final eight, and there is little margin of error for both North Melbourne and West Coast.
Another poor performance by both these teams this weekend and it would become increasingly unlikely that they can make the eight.
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