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I’m not buying the suggestion Melbourne were a bit flat coming into their game against Canberra and were overdue to lose after having won 15 in a row stretching back to last season.
I’m buying the suggestion Canberra exposed and capitalised on a genuine weakness in the Melbourne side.
The Warriors had partially exposed the same weakness against the Storm in the previous round, but had failed to capitalise on it.
After adopting a plan that put them in the game with a genuine chance of winning, the Warriors blinked when they got a penalty close to the Storm line inside the final 20 minutes and kicked for goal to break a deadlock instead of going for a try and a possible six-point lead.
The Storm came back to beat them, as they usually do in such circumstances.
The Raiders didn’t blink, and went on to record a 24-20 win that was their third in a row over Melbourne in Melbourne.
We all know Canberra are dynamic out wide when they want to be. The trouble is they don’t put it together often enough.
But it was obvious they had gone in with a specific plan against the Storm, and they carried it out to perfection.
Raiders captain Terry Campese had given notice that they weren’t going to die wondering when he was quoted in a pre-game article saying they would “take a little bit out of the Warriors’ book” and “throw the ball around”.
It was more scientific than that, and seeing what the Warriors did would have had the effect of confirming Canberra’s belief rather switching a light on.
The Raiders still had to do the hard work first, but they knew that if they concentrated on getting the ball out wide at every genuine opportunity they would be a chance of winning.
Some of Melbourne’s defenders out wide have got real problems, and if the attack can move sharply to get the ball to a player on the outside of his opposite man then they are in business.
It’s not some willy-nilly approach.
Blake Ferguson was a nightmare for the Storm defence, and fellow centre Jack Wighton enjoyed himself as well.
What the Raiders did wasn’t a fluke. When they beat the Storm in Melbourne last year, wingers Edrick Lee and Sandor Earl scored three and two tries respectively, and centre Ferguson and fullback Reece Robinson one apiece.
Again this time, it was the outside backs scoring the tries. Ferguson got two, and Wighton and Robinson one apiece.
The last try actually came from a break out of nothing down the centre of the field by Robinson, but that is just another indication of how dangerous the Raiders can be. Robinson has a great step and super acceleration.
Canberra’s problem is to do with consistency. They haven’t been able to establish any in recent years. There have been periods of fantastic highs and awful lows.
The teams that are prepared to simply get into the grind with Melbourne and hope for the best are going to lose the vast majority of times, because Melbourne are too good at that.
And some teams are obviously better equipped to challenge them out wide than others.
But what both the Warriors and Raiders have proved in recent weeks is that you’ve got to try to be inventive against the Storm or forget about it.
The challenge for the often-frustrating Raiders will be to back up the win over Melbourne with another strong performance at home against Newcastle on Sunday.
The challenge for the Storm, not just on the road against Penrith on Sunday but over time, will be to try to make the necessary adjustments to their defence out wide.
They are still the competition favourites, but for opponents with the necessary ability and nerve there is real hope.
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