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The initial 25 man training squad was announced on the weekend and there are disappointed and angry fans all over the Internet.
On the plus side now we can get into the nitty gritty of pulling apart Robbie Deans’ squad.
To be sure there are six more players to be added to the squad but these 25 are the ones that will leave their franchises for the three-week training camp. It is logical to assume the entire starting XV is present within this group (injury permitting).
Squad:
Front Row: Benn Robinson, James Slipper, Ben Alexander, Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore, Saia Fainga’a
Second Row: James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Sitaleki Timani
Back Row: Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Michael Hooper, Liam Gill, Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen
Halves: Will Genia, James O’Connor, Berrick Barnes
Centres: Rob Horne, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Christian Lealiifano
Outside Backs: Israel Folau, Digby Ioane, Joe Tomane, Nick Cummins
Let’s pick the team apart and see what it tells us about the game plan Deans means to use in June.
He has selected 15 forwards (just one lock short of a full second scrum) and only 10 backs. This tells us he knows his starting backline so let’s begin there.
These selections are about experience first, incumbency second and form third.
Ioane and Cummins on the wings, Barnes at 15, Horne and Adam Ashley-Cooper in the centres and Genia and James O’Connor in the halves.
Folau’s inexperience won’t be risked in the first half of the first Test so he’ll ride the pine. With a reserve halfback to be named and Deans praising Lealiifano’s versatility to all and sundry, that covers the bench.
As a side note the reserve halfback is clearly Luke Burgess, hence all the details about dates and arrivals and availability.
Deans has looked at his experience and wants it (despite the fact the halfback behind Genia will see less game time then Chris ‘Anthems’ Whittaker did behind Gregan). Phipps has fallen out of favour and White was never in favour.
So what can we deduce from that backline? Well not one of Horne, Ashley-Cooper, Ioane and Cummins can draw and pass. This is the first clue to Deans’ game plan.
He talked in the press conference about JOC playing square and it is clear he intends to use Genia and Barnes to pass the ball to his runners who can hit the line and offload. JOC will be given license to attack as he sees fit from 10 or 12 depending on the channel he’s standing in.
All up it amounts to a conservative game in the backs. Nothing fancy (other than JOC’s footwork) but a backline designed to ‘play what is in front of them’ hitting the ball up off one or two passes.
Scoring opportunities will come from capitalising on mistakes as they present themselves rather than through any playmaking creativity.
That indicates Deans is banking on the Lions defensive systems not being particularly well set and coming apart over the course of a game.
In the forwards it is no more difficult to extrapolate. Deans has selected the entire Waratahs pack except Kane Douglas, who I would expect to see in the additional six (especially if Hugh McMeniman doesn’t recover in time), and all seven of them will be in the game day 23.
Deans wants to throw big bodies at the Lions. Timani and Palu will both start.
There are only two decisions that will modify the pack.
Firstly, is Deans playing both Hooper and Gill in the game day 23? If so, one of the bench players has to be a lock/blindside flanker, which means Dennis or McMeniman.
The problem with this option is easy to identify, it leaves Higginbotham as starting blindside calling the lineout.
One point in favour of this set up is that since Timani will partner Horwill in the second row, all Wallaby lineouts will be five-man affairs, with Sita standing in the midfield for a crash ball – so the calls will be much simpler to remember.
Secondly, who does Deans trust to start at tighthead prop? Alexander was towelled up by Cian Healy last time they met and Benn Robinson dented his confidence again on the weekend.
Sekope Kepu, apart from being a penalty magnet, is best utilised as an impact forward and is almost certain to come off the bench.
That leaves James Slipper and, although I don’t share the concerns, there are plenty of people who worry about his ability to anchor the scrum at international level.
This is probably the one position for which I think Deans has not yet made up his mind.
Playing Slipper, Higginbotham and Hooper in the starting XV would give us a good point of difference in mobility and speed against the Lions and I have some hope we might see it.
Make no mistake though, this is a conservative side who will be playing a thoroughly unimaginative style of rugby, similar to what we saw against Wales last year.
Deans knows his job is on the line and he has picked a team with the aim of trying to keep the score close and win on penalties or a late try created through individual brilliance.
There’s a quote from Robbie in his post-announcement press engagements that I want to end with:
“The reason we haven’t chosen Quade in this instance is that we believe the balance in James O’Connor’s game suits us more.”
I am in 100% agreement with Deans on that point. Unfortunately I also think Deans has picked a losing strategy.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.