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I’m not going to produce any fancy stats, reach for the usual bag of omens or even point at Queensland’s ageing team of Origin champions.
But I am predicting a Blues win at ANZ Stadium tonight on the strength that ‘enough is enough’.
The maroon Marauders have won seven series straight and the locals have had to contend with a gutful of misery. You can see it in their steely blue eyes – enough is enough.
We’ve got an L-plate coach in Laurie Daley, an Origin great in his own right, but I am supremely confident that the new (cool, calm but calculated) approach he brings to the NSW team will reap an immediate dividend.
Love him or loathe him, Daley’s predecessor, Ricky Stuart, got the Blue Brothers together. He galvanised them into a rugged, fighting machine that thumbed its collective noses at reputations but lost last year’s series by a solitary field goal.
That really hurt. NSW was the better-performed team over the three-game series but the history books will forever say they were not good enough.
Now it is Daley’s turn at the helm and I have been impressed with his approach to game No 1. He is supremely confident in the men he has chosen and that confidence will count for plenty in the heat of battle.
The odds are that this won’t be a fancy scoreline in the Blues’ favour. It doesn’t have to be.
But a first-up win on home territory will surely strike dread into the heart of Queensland, its champion players and way-too smug supporters, especially as there will be another game in Sydney be it the decider, or otherwise.
The home ground advantage in Origin can never be overstated.
I think NSW has picked a team that can do the job.
There is an experienced core of Origin campaigners who are hurting badly from the string of defeats and it is melding with four exciting debutants (Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds) in a series opener that makes the mouth water.
Plenty of critics have conducted a personal hate session on Blues’ half Mitchell Pearce on this website but he deserves his jumper on club form, and it’s up to challengers such as Adam Reynolds to take it away from him.
Let’s face it: NSW does not need a rabbit in the spotlight in a game of such importance. Adam’s time will surely come, he certainly has loads of potential.
Pearce’s combination with newcomer James Maloney will be closely watched and indeed, NSW hopes will swing largely on how the pair measures up to Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston.
But there are other Blues who will need to be closely watched, especially by the Maroons.
New winger Blake Ferguson has outrageous skills in attack and defence. He will be fired up to produce something very special in his debut and I think he will do so.
The same applies to benchmen Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds. Fifita is quickly developing into an unstoppable force in rugby league while Reynolds is an extremely rugged and niggly customer who plays his best football when the going gets fierce.
Jarryd Hayne’s presence at fullback will also trouble the Maroons. If he brings his A-Game, attacking sparks will fly!
Early on, I’m tipping a surprise blitz out wide from the New South Welshmen before they settle into an up-the-middle grind orchestrated by Robbie Farah, Paul Gallen, James Tamou and Co.
Queensland will rely heavily on centres Inglis and Hodges for their attacking inspiration but will have Josh Morris and Michael Jennings in their faces all night.
Billy Slater, at fullback, will be hustled and bustled all night and I won’t be surprised if he gets frustrated into error.
The NSW boys will have a huge home crowd at their backs and that factor might squeeze a vital penalty or two from the whistle-blowers.
But deep, deep down, the Blues will be driven by the events of the past seven years as they strive to halt Queensland’s run and earn themselves a slice of their own history.
Enough is enough. Blues by 4. Surely, that will be enough.
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