I mostly approve of this Wallabies side that has been selected. However there are a few flaws in it, and some changes that I think must be made for this team to transition from an exciting side to a winning side.
The Brumbies showed to the ARU that you don’t have to play guys out of position to emphasize speed and mobility to beat the Lions. What you need is physicality up front and in the breakdown, an aggressive tight five and a tactical backline who can all defend one on one.
Starting with the front row picked for this Saturday, I don’t think anyone in Australia can argue with the Robinson and Moore picks. Robinson rarely has a poor game in the green and gold and Moore is arguably the best hooker in world rugby.
Alexander, however, is a poor selection. He is not physical or big enough in the set piece to do damage against this Lions pack. While effective against sides like New Zealand where his mobility adds an extra dimension, it will be useless this Saturday.
Slipper should be starting, and I believe Paddy Ryan would have been ideal for this game. His physical style and immense size draws defenders, and he wheels scrums more effectively than Alexander.
That being said, Slipper and Kepu coming off the bench will have a huge impact in the last 20 minutes; especially as the fitness of Lions’ prop Vunipola will be tested in the latter stages of the game.
The second row selections are fantastic. To win on Saturday aggression and mongrel are key, and Douglas and Horwill offer both those traits and then some. Horwill provides the power ball-running and leadership while Douglas is a rabid dog in the rucks. Both are excellent in the lineout as well.
The backrow selections are also logical, and while Palu might be seen by many as being too unreliable to perform, his size and impact will give the forwards fantastic momentum.
Hooper should have been benched for Gill in this game. Gill leads the Super Rugby in pilfers and revels in the trenches while Hooper is a more ball-running seven, similar to Warburton.
It has been witnessed how effective a traditional pilfering seven is against Northern Hemisphere sides, exemplified by Pocock’s dominance against Wales, and George Smith’s ability to disrupt the breakdown in his last year in the Wallabies jersey.
Hooper would be a brilliant substitute to bring on when the opposition is tired as his pace would let him run rings around them. However you need Gill to wear down the opposition pack for 60 minutes first. The lack of pilfering ability in Mowen, Palu and Hooper will be a disadvantage in this game.
Now to the backline. That this backline has the right personnel and the talent from 9-15 is not up for debate. However, it is the positional selections that make it almost certain to perform below its potential.
James O’Connor should be directly swapped for Berrick Barnes, with the latter starting at flyhalf. We have seen how effective Barnes’ no nonsense, traditional style of flyhalf play is against Wales in the 3-0 series whitewash last year, and O’Connor’s experience at fullback would also help.
I am concerned with O’Connor’s tackling ability in the inside channel, especially when faced with George North and O’Driscoll crash balls through the inside channel off set pieces.
Barnes would add a lot of stability in defence, and his calm nature would compliment his debutant inside centre Lealiifano.
Ashley-Cooper was one of the first names I had down for the Wallabies, and his consistency in attack and defence will be vital come Saturday. If he has been able to play as well as he has with Rob Horne distributing the ball to him, then he could really hit another gear with a real playmaking inside centre setting him up.
Ioane and Folau are both going to have fine games, however it would have been fantastic to see Nick Cummins start on the wing for Folau and Israel to be on the bench instead of McCabe.
Cummins was incredible in his last game for the Wallabies and his man of the match performance in Twickenham last year showed how effective his direct running and zeal in defence is against Northern Hemisphere sides. That being said McCabe will offer those same abilities coming off the bench in the second half also.
Overall this is a team that has the ability to win the first Test against the Lions on Saturday night. O’Connor and Barnes will be studying the game plan of Mogg and Toomua from Tuesday with great interest. Their tactical kicking behind the Lions’ shallow wingers and not spreading the ball too wide, too early are vital lessons to be learnt from that provincial victory.
This is especially true after the more ‘exciting’ methods of rugby employed by the Reds and Waratahs were quashed by the Lions.
We have the team to make history this Lions Series, but the way they play is entirely in their hands.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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