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I believe Queensland, the seven series in a row State of Origin champions with their backs against the wall, will raise a mighty effort and level the series by winning game two at home.
But I also believe that, as long as NSW aren’t badly beaten and have their confidence rocked, the Blues will return to Sydney and clinch the series by winning game three next month.
I’ve tipped Queensland in the vast majority of games during their incredible run, in the belief that when a team is as good as they undeniably are you’ve simply got to keep tipping them until they start to lose.
But I think the tide finally turned with that win by NSW in game one. I think the Blues have, at least, caught up with the Maroons, and that the advantage of two home games is enough to tilt the balance in their favour.
But back to tonight. I think the Blues have got a genuine shot at winning this game, and that it will be close, but that this will be an occasion when Queensland dig deep in true Origin tradition to stay alive.
I realise it’s stating the obvious to say game two of an Origin series is critically important. Every Origin game is critically important – even game three when a series has already been won 2-0.
But what I would like to point out are the game two results during that seven-year period.
The Maroons won game two in each of the first five years of that run – three of them at Suncorp and two at ANZ Stadium. The Blues have won game two in each of the last two years – both at ANZ Stadium.
It’s the game where it all goes on the line – one team is trying to clinch the series and the other is trying to stay in it.
And it’s a scenario that I think will inspire the champions to find what was missing from their game in Origin I.
And before you get to the performances of individual players and the player ins and outs for game two, it was intensity that Queensland mainly lacked in the series opener.
NSW went a long way down the field in their early sets, which you wouldn’t expect to see against this Maroons side – regardless of where the game is being played.
The Blues deservedly built a 14-0 lead, and it wasn’t until the final 20 minutes that Queensland started playing like Queensland.
Johnathan Thurston began to have an influence in that closing period, but he was practically invisible until then.
He showed in the one club game he has played since for North Queensland, against St George Illawarra, that he is over the groin injury he took into the Origin game.
And Greg Inglis didn’t see nearly enough good ball playing in the centres in that game. He didn’t have anything like the influence he is capable of having.
I expect both Thurston and Inglis to have a big impact tonight, and it was interesting to read that the Maroons have done a bit of training with Inglis at fullback and Daly Cherry-Evans in the centres.
That says they are prepared to go outside the square to win, if that is what it takes. It’s an acknowledgement that the gap between the two teams has closed and that you can’t just prepare to do the same thing over and over again and automatically expect to win.
In case it’s not working, you’ve got to have a good Plan B.
The Blues have lost three players from the team that won game one – fullback Jarryd Hayne, winger Blake Ferguson and prop James Tamou.
It’s so frustrating to think that only one of them – Hayne – is out injured, and that the other two are perfectly fit but ruined their chances of selection because of off-field incidents.
Those are big losses.
I don’t mind Josh Dugan at fullback. He would have been there for game one had he not managed to get himself sacked by Canberra and been forced to spend an extended period out of the game while he found another club.
But not having Hayne there as either a winger or fullback takes a lot from the team.
Ferguson has what it takes to be a great player at Origin level. He made a solid debut in game one and is the type of player – much like Dugan did when he made his Origin debut at Suncorp Stadium in 2011 – who would have gone there and not been overawed.
Nathan Merritt is the feel-good story going into Origin II, but there is no guarantee he is up to it. The only guarantee is that the Maroons will find out if he is up to it or not. Queensland are going to run at Merritt and kick to him – he is going to get a thorough examination.
I like the fact Aaron Woods has been given his Origin debut, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he had a big game, but ideally he would have come in via the bench instead of starting.
Queensland appear to have taken a risk by not including another prop, and that is an area in which NSW could gain an advantage through the big, yet mobile, props they have chosen. But we will have to wait and see how the game is played.
I don’t expect the game to erupt, with the risk of a team being left with a numerical disadvantage due to a player, or players, being sin-binned. But I would sneakily like to see three players from each side – all forwards, preferably – be sat down for 10 minutes.
Imagine 10 minutes of an Origin with 10 against 10, as the greatest players in the world try to take advantage of an open field.
That would be something to see.
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