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Under fire coach Robbie Deans must stay in position as the Wallabies coach regardless of what happens in the second and third Tests against the Lions or the upcoming four nations Rugby Championship series.
It’s too close to the next World Cup, 2015, to do anything else. If the ARU didn’t think he was up to the job, then they’d have got rid of him after the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
But he’s still there, win, lose or draw.
You can’t go changing horses midstream.
I gather Sir Graham Henry talked himself past the New Zealand board after 2003, pointing out the All Blacks’ lack of penalty decisions from Wayne Barnes in their elimination match against France. Armed with the match-video, Sir Graham was granted another go. Good call, New Zealand.
Perhaps Robbie Deans did the same after the Australia v New Zealand semi-final.
Incidently, looking back, I see that this match was controlled by whistle-blower Craig Joubert, on his way to refereeing the final somewhat controversially. I can’t remember too much about that semi-final, except that the early scoring flattered to deceive that a ‘classic’ could be on the cards.
Still, it’s not a bad tournament to get to the semis. Beat Italy and South Africa, lost to Ireland and New Zealand. Not bad, but not great. Enough to work on, though, if you’re going to talk yourself into a job for the next four years.
So, let’s say the Wallabies lose to the Lions in the second Test. ‘Well it’s a rebuilt backline. We were devastated by injuries. The refs were against us. We were unlucky.’
This would mean the third Test would be a dead rubber, a meaningless match in which we’ll be playing for pride.
And, possibly, making a case for the next Lions £100 million bonanza coming Australia’s way in 12 years time.
Or, let’s say the Wallabies win versus the Lions in the second Test and lose the third. ‘Well it’s a rebuilt backline. We were devastated by injuries. The refs were against us. We were unlucky.’
Or, let’s say the Wallabies win versus the Lions in the second Test and also win the third. ‘Deans is a God.’ ‘A golden future lies ahead.’ ‘What a bunch of heroes.’
Anyway you look at it, Deans stays.
Next up, the Rugby Championship and pretty much the same scenario. Autumn internationals, the matches against whoever tours in 2014, 2014 Rugby Championship, 2015 Autumn internationals. World Cup warm-ups.
Maybe 20 internationals to be played in total before the World Cup 2015. Not enough to get a new coach in, have him (or her) establish a game-plan, personnel and a rapport with officials and fans.
There is only enough time for the current coach to bed in his newcomers, wheedle out the deadwood and build that 600-cap side to go into a World Cup planning to win it.
How bad would it have to get before Deans resigned off his own bat? 0-3 v the Lions? 0-6 in the Rugby Championship? Strewth, someone would murder Deans before he threw the towel in.
Where can you draw the line? I don’t think you can. I think, these days, once you appoint someone after a Rugby World Cup, then they’re in place for the next four years, come what may.
Even slipping down the IRB Rankings is irrelevant after the Rugby World Cup seeding has taken place, and since that was done last November, it’s Autumn 2016 before that matters again.
So, the earliest opportunity for ejection is 2015, after the World Cup.
Robbie Deans is here to stay.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.