Rewind the clock to thirteen weeks ago.Collingwood and Carlton were facing off in an intense Round 2 battle as the greatest rivalry in the AFL was played out in front of over 80,000 fans in fading light at the MCG.
Collingwood had gone in with a tough win in Round 1, whereas Carlton lost their opening match to Richmond in a tight affair.
After a whole seven days of controversy over former Collingwood now Carlton coach in Michael Malthouse, who had won a premiership with the Pies.
After Twitter quotes like ‘#lovetohatecarlton’ and vice versa from the Carlton side, as well as some rude manners from Carlton coach Mick Malthouse in press conferences during the week, both sides locked horns on a Sunday afternoon.
Carlton were looking good in that match before falling at the final hurdle to a gallant Collingwood outfit who ran out winners by 17 points.
But since that match both teams have gone their separate ways, with Collingwood losing to Hawthorn, Essendon, Fremantle, Sydney and Port Adelaide, just clinging onto eighth spot after newspapers made bold predictions of a premiership after just a couple of rounds.
Carlton started shooting up the ladder and good performances granted them praise, with some great games being played by the Blues against West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and Sydney.
Tomorrow night both teams will yet again meet in the tensest of rivalries, as around 90,000 supporters are expected to click through the turnstiles before the 7.50pm AEST start at the hallowed turf at the MCG.
The match will be a tight affair, with both teams always lifting their performances against each other.
As a Collingwood supporter (don’t hate) I believe that the Magpies can win, but I still will resign to making a non-bias prediction on how tomorrow night’s match will pan out due to match-ups and form.
When Collingwood were struggling in the first three quarters against Carlton, Travis Cloke didn’t kick any goals, and wasn’t involved in any scores as he started to demand the ball and set up goals in the last quarter.
The Collingwood midfielders need to not be as consistent at kicking the ball to Cloke, as Carlton will surely have another defender to drop back to help Jamison with the power forward.
But that means that another target needs to bob up in the forward line.
Quinten Lynch was supposed to fill that role that Dawes failed, but Lynch’s kicking has been disgraceful and whether his glove is on or off, he still regularly shanks the ball.
Jamie Elliot, the pocket sized forward who can take grand marks, proven by his exciting mark of the year contender last week, can stand up and make a difference like he did in Round 2 where he booted five and frustrated Malthouse, much to Collingwood’s delight.
If Elliot steps up and demands the ball and a key defender, then that leaves Cloke to roam around and take contested mark after contested mark.
If that happens, then watch out Carlton, because Waite is going to have to mirror what Cloke does, if not do better, which is going to be extremely hard if he is on Reid or Brown.
Collingwood are also going to have to up the ante when it comes to pressure, as they did against Geelong earlier in the year in a fantastic win.
From the word go the Pies attacked the player and the football ferociously, constantly creating turnovers which shocked the Cats into leaking goals as the Pies came home fast.
But since then Collingwood have relaxed and their pressure has been lacklustre, with the Pies themselves making the turnovers.
If they are going to win, they will have to pressure the Blues every second they can, because Carlton are brilliant at creating space without pressure.
Last of all, Collingwood will need to cover the three minute killers for Carlton in Betts, Garlett and Yarran.
Now that Collingwood don’t have Toovey due to a ruptured ACL on ANZAC Day, Heath Shaw, Marley Williams, Jordan Russell, Nick Maxwell and possibly Harry O’Brien will have to share the load.
Shaw, O’Brien and Maxwell normally provide the release and running defenders that aided the Pies so well in their two years of excellent football in 2010 and 2011.
If the Pies can stop those three from scoring heavily, then the Pies are sure to be in for a win.
So, for my pick, it is going to be an excruciatingly close game, with the final minutes deciding all, just like in Round 2.
I say that if the Pies have two targets up forward, apply pressure and stop the three small forwards for Carlton then they can just slide home.
I predict that Collingwood will grind their way home in a thrilling match that raises the supporters’ hopes by nine points in front of a packed Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The ultimate rivalry continues.
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