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On Sunday, at 5.15 am (do officials think rugby writers never sleep?), SANZAR sent out an email to hundreds of media outlets and writers titled: ‘Dates and times confirmed for 2013 Super Rugby Qualifiers’.
The details of the qualifying finals are as follows:
Qualifier A: Saturday 20 July 2013 Crusaders v Reds at AMI Stadium, Christchurch at 5.35 pm on the eastern seaboard of Australia.
Qualifier B: Sunday 21 July 2013 Brumbies v Cheetahs, Canberra at 4.10 pm local time.
The week after these finals, the semi-finals will be held between the Bulls playing the highest-ranked winner of Qualifier A or B. And the Chiefs playing the other winner of A or B.
The Crusaders get a home final as the top-ranked ‘wildcard’ team. They play the Reds, in a rematch of the 2011 Super Rugby final, because the Queensland team, with the points gained from its win over the Waratahs, is the fifth-placed side.
The Brumbies get a home final because they won the Australian Conference with 60 points and 10 wins. They play the Cheetahs, the last placed team in the finals, even though they won 10 matches.
Looking at the overall statistics of the 2013 Super Rugby tournament, it is clear that there is no dominant side. The Chiefs, the top team in the tournament and the New Zealand Conference winners and the Bulls, the South African conference winners, both won 12 and lost four
The Brumbies won 10 matches and also lost four but drew two matches in amassing 60 tournament points.
The Crusaders, the second ranked New Zealand side, amassed 60 points and won 11 of its matches and lost five
The Reds, like the Brumbies and the Cheetahs, won 10 matches and lost four matches and drew two.
The Cheetahs made the finals even though they lost six matches.
It probably would have been better for the Reds if they had somehow contrived to be in the sixth position, and playing the Brumbies. The Crusaders, the Reds’ opponents, have a 100 percent record at home this year. The Brumbies have a 75 percent winning record this year at Canberra.
The Crusaders, too, are going into the finals with some momentum. They have won their last four matches. The Reds have a loss, victory, bye and victory record; not bad perhaps, going into the finals.
The performance of the Reds against the Waratahs was uneven. The team lacked spark and energy. There was a lot of pick and driving. But the flair and pace of earlier in the season just wasn’t there.
The play of Quade Cooper, despite the ravings of Rod Kafer, was very ordinary. He put in a couple of wonderful, trademark passes but there were the usual flow of mistakes, kicks out on the full, an interception and some terrible hospital passes.
There is a great difference between the Cooper of 2011 and the present Cooper. Two years ago, before his bad leg injury in the 2011 Rugby World Cup tournament, he had a lot of speed and could and did clear out often from inside his 22 even at times.
Now the blistering speed seems to have gone. He is too inclined to pass before getting to the line. He rarely challenges the defence (despite Kafer’s insistence that he does).
The ball-runners have to make most of the running and a shrewd defence, by concentrating on them, is able to shut down the Reds.
The Reds have scored the least number of tries of all the finals sides, 31. The Chiefs have scored 50, the Crusaders 44, the Brumbies 43, the Bulls 41 and the Cheetahs 38.
But he Reds are far and away the best defensive side, conceding only 23 tries. The Crusaders are next on 30 tries conceded, the Brumbies 31, the Cheetahs 32, the Bulls 34 and the Chiefs, with a try-leaking defensive system, 38.
These statistics are interesting and possibly important because finals rugby is all about defence. The Waratahs found out on Saturday that the Reds are very resilient under siege. Part of this is due to the fact that the Reds pack, and especially Liam Gill, are ferocious diggers for the ball. They get plenty of turn-overs. They slow down attacks. But they do concede penalties.
And at Christchurch, with the Crusaders sharp-shooter Dan Carter, this could be fatal.
A lot depends of the referee for the match. The official SANZAR statement noted that the referees will be announced later this week. My hope is that that the policy of having local referees, or a referee from the country of a side playing in the match, is not used.
SANZAR has been dishonest in the past about the use of local referees in the finals. When the change was made, under the South African management of the referees, to have local referees for some matches rather than neutrals for all matches, SANZAR said this rule would not apply in the finals.
Then we found the South African Jonathan Kaplan refereeing a Bulls-Chiefs final, and a New Zealander Bryce Lawrence refereeing a Reds-Crusaders final.
During the Waratahs-Reds match at ANZ Stadium, Waratahs captain Dave Dennis could be heard having a long chat with referee Steve Walsh about the way the Reds were disrupting the rucks and mauls (often illegally) by throwing players through to the other side or by constantly playing the ball on the ground.
This seemed to me to be a spot-on call by Dennis. It fitted what I was seeing and the Reds pattern throughout the season. Walsh seemed to be sympathetic to the Dennis pitch. Then he started penalising the Waratahs at a number of ruck and mauls.
It is pretty obvious that Craig Joubert, the South African and number one referee in the world (in my opinion) should handle the Crusaders and Reds match. Joubert refereed the Wallabies-Lions second Test at Melbourne. On the weekend, he refereed the splendid Stormers-Bulls match, which was easily the best-played and most ferocious match of the round.
What a pity for the Stormers that they dropped so many matches early on in the season. Their all-round play against the Bulls, with ferocious charges by their forwards and some devastating running by their backs, was as good as any team has played this year.
The referee for the Brumbies-Cheetahs match should be Chris Pollock, the New Zealand referee who handled the first Wallaby-Lions match of the 2013 series.
That match was one of the best played by the Wallabies in recent years. Unfortunately Pollock allowed himself to be talked into giving a red card against the Blues early on in their match against the Chiefs. But in general he is a referee who, like Joubert, encourages enterprising teams.
If we get these two referees, we are also likely to get the spirited, tough and enterprising play that Super Rugby finals should have.
I’m picking the Crusaders and the Brumbies to win their finals, mainly because they are playing at home.
If this happens, the Chiefs would play the Crusaders in the semi-final at Hamilton (or the Reds if they get through) and the Brumbies, as the highest ranked winner, will play the Bulls at Pretoria.
Of course, if the Cheetahs win (most unlikely, in my view) the winner of the Crusaders – Reds match will have to travel to Pretoria.
But all this is speculation. All the teams in the finals have shown vulnerability at various times in the 2013 Super rugby tournament.
The cream is rising only slowly to the top. Which raises the real possibility of a bolter taking out the tournament this season. But which bolter?