North Melbourne’s season went from bad to worse on Saturday night, after suffering an embarrassing loss to Brisbane at the Gabba.
The Roos led by as many as 33 points late in the third quarter but yielded to a Brisbane fight-back, with the Lions taking out the match by 12 points.
It was another disappointing loss for the Roos, who have lost five games this season after leading in the final quarter.
It was the fifth game they have lost by two goals or under.
To date little responsibility for their performance has been directed at coach Brad Scott, but after four years at the helm the Roos have made little forward progress.
The Roos have registered just two wins against top eight opponents this season, with their other victories coming against Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Richmond.
Earlier this year North Melbourne extended Scott’s contract until the end of 2016. It was a brave move that indicated the board’s confidence in Scott to gain success at the Roos. It was also an unnecessary move that is looking increasingly ill-considered by the week.
A disappointing season, inconsistent performances over the past four seasons and one solitary finals game (a 96 point thrashing at the hands of West Coast) suggests that North Melbourne may have overcommitted.
Scott has won 41 of the 82 games he has coached, with his team finishing either eighth or ninth in his three completed seasons.
Unless you have a very young list, the middle of the ladder is football’s no-mans-land, where you often miss out on the best young talent in the draft while simultaneously being an undesirable destination for players seeking a trade to a successful team.
The average age of North Melbourne line-ups in 2013 is the tenth highest in the league (after accounting for outliers such as Brent Harvey or Dustin Fletcher). They are not an old team but there are younger teams with more upside such as Essendon, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.
It is also concerning how reliant the team is on their older players. Their best player is 35-years-old, while their best forward is almost 31-years-old.
Brent Harvey and Drew Petrie are still excellent footballers but they should be quality role players rather than the stars of the team at this point of their careers.
Brad Scott remains resolute in defence of his players and game plan, with the idea being that if you are good enough to dominate for half a game or three-quarters of a game then you are fairly close to the mark.
But the final quarter fade-outs are telling and indicative of a failed game plan.
Either the players lack the conditioning to exercise the game plan over the four quarters or the game plan itself has a fatal flaw.
In North Melbourne’s case their game plan is too offensive, leaving them open to opposition counterattacks. They are similar in many ways to the Matthew Knights led Essendon teams of 2008 – 2010, which were capable of playing amazing offensive football on occasions but were frequently exposed defensively.
Too many North players run only one way, making it far too easy for opposition teams to score heavily and quickly against them.
In football vernacular they are ‘downhill skiers’. It is no surprise that Scott and Knights have a combined losing margin in their two finals of 96 points.
Flashy, offensively-focused football does not get it done in the finals. It never has and unless Scott adjusts his game style the Roos will continue to suffer embarrassing losses and be an afterthought in September.
All of these factors point to a coach who should be coaching for his career this season. But unfortunately the Roos handed Scott a three-year extension.
The Bombers made a similar move in 2009, extending Matthew Knights’ contract by a further two seasons. It was designed to put an end to contract speculation in 2010 but as we now know it achieved no such thing.
At the time the Knights extension did not make much sense.
First, the coach has not achieved anything yet so why reward them with an early contract extension.
Second, a hungry coach is a better coach; players often play better in contract years to get themselves a new deal so the same should apply to coaches.
Third, there was no competition for Knights’ services; no team was going to steal him away from the Bombers.
All of these factors apply to Brad Scott. Who is competing with North Melbourne for Scott’s services? Nobody.
If they had waited to resign him there is a zero chance that the likes of Melbourne would be trying to poach him.
The Knights saga ended with Essendon sacking Knights before his extension had even commenced and Knights was paid for two seasons that he did not even coach.
It was a monumental stuff up from the Essendon football club but one that other clubs should have learned from.
North Melbourne’s decision to extend Scott’s contract may not prove to be incorrect but it was unnecessary.
If a mistake was made, the Roos do not have the resources to simply pay to make the problem go away.
If the team does not improve under Scott’s watch, the Roos will simply have to live with it and that should be deeply concerning for their fans.
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