So the news is out there that Benji Marshall will be leaving Wests Tigers and also the NRL, as he looks likely to stand by his word and not play against the only club he has ever played for.
Now unless an incredibly unlikely offer comes in from the English Super League or a big U-turn, Marshall is on his way to rugby union with the two major options being the NSW Waratahs and the Auckland Blues
First, let’s looks at the situation with the Tahs. By signing on with the Waratahs, he is able to stay in Sydney, his home for the past 10 years.
Syndey is also a bigger market, which offers him better financial incentives. If he signs with the Sydney side, the likelihood of highly lucrative off-season spells in Japan are likely.
For the Waratahs, he is another player to build the franchise on, helping them to gain traction in the incredibly tough Sydney winter sports market.
The issue is though, where does he fit in? The position most people would think he is likely to transition to is first five, yet Cheika has invested heavily in Bernard Foley this past year and it has started to pay real dividends.
Also, with Kurtley Beale likely to return and find the 15 jersey filled by the impressive Israel Folau, he might also be challenging Foley.
The Blues won’t offer the same financial incentives, but he is most likely going to have to take a cut whichever team he decides on and Sir John Kirwan will probably want him to get accustomed to the XV man game by playing NPC with Auckland, who have a space opened up with the news of Anscombe’s absence from the competition due to a shoulder surgery.
What the Blues will offer is a platform for Marshall to make a play at the Rugby World Cup 2015 squad and also a chance to go to the 2016 Olympics with the Sevens team.
What do the Blues get out of this? During the build up to the NFL Draft, the term ‘boom-or-bust prospect’ is bandied around by scouts about certain players. I think this NFL parlance fits the situation with Marshall well.
Noakes started off well with the Blues this year, but faded away, whilst Baden Kerr was bedding into his first season in Super Rugby. If the Blues put their chips on Marshall, they will be asking a lot of Piri Weepu, who will have to take up the role of the French half back ‘General’ role, where he will have to manage the game and do the goal kicking.
Marshall struggled as Tim Sheens tried to build more structure into his game, so how will he manage in the more limited space in union, especially in the steep learning curve that is New Zealand rugby.
And for the national side, he is going to have to battle one of the finest players of the professional era, regardless of position, Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett to have any chance of making it into the World Cup squad.
But, whilst the past year or so has tarnished his reputation somewhat, Marshall, like Folau is a natural footballer and if there is a player who would make the switch at this stage of their career, it is Benji.
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