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Here’s our weekly break-even analysis heading in to Round 19.
Again we’ll look at players with excellent BEs (The Good), players with shocking BEs (The Bad) as well as a few players with moderate BEs who it’s either time to buy or time to sell.
Halfback and Five-Eighth
The Good
Todd Carney ($263,300), Avg score 54.3, BE -33
With two 100-plus scores in his last two games, Carney seems to have finally hit his straps.
A huge positive is that even with the return of Michael Gordon last round he kept the goal kicking duties.
He’s still pretty cheap and could prove to be a nice alternative to Thurston/Maloney in the run towards the finals.
Tyrone Peachey ($120,200), Avg score 39.2, BE 3
With the Sharks missing key forwards Paul Gallen, Wade Graham and Anthony Tupou for the next couple of weeks minutes have opened up for Peachey.
He scored a good 60 last round and will rise nicely in value for as long as the Sharks remain under strength.
Anthony Milford ($195,800), Avg score 45.3, BE 11
With the Raiders’ fullback spot locked down Milford could be a sneaky good buy this week.
He oozes talent and scored a massive 93 in his last game. If you like the look of him this is the week to get on board.
James Maloney ($286,400), Avg score 66.9, BE 60
One of the best performers in the halves so far this season, this is the week to buy him for the run home.
He’s cheap at the moment and will continue to be an elite option for the rest of the season.
The Bad
Wade Graham ($245,100), Avg score 48.1, BE 95
Graham had provided solid bye coverage until suffering an injury early in the Sharks’ round 18 match against the Broncos.
He’ll spend a few weeks on the sideline and isn’t a keeper at either five-eighth or in the second row.
His BE is high but there’s no real rush to get him out this week. Just make sure he’s made way before he plays his next game.
James Segeyaro ($248,300), Avg score 58.2, BE 95
Segeyaro has been one of the surprise packets of the season. He’s scored well and has risen handsomely in price, but isn’t an elite option.
His price is starting to fall so upgrading him to a gun player this week would be a great move.
Josh Dugan ($333,000), Avg score 69, BE 92
Dugan has been awesome since joining the Dragons and wouldn’t look out of place in any SuperCoach team.
He’s not worth selling this week, but those who want him for the rest of the season will be well served to wait until next week to buy him.
Kieran Foran ($260,900), Avg score 48, BE 67
Foran has been on a tear lately (averaging 66.4 over his last five games) but all good things must come to an end.
He’s currently way overvalued and a trade to a top-shelf player like Carney or Maloney would be a great move this week.
Maurice Blair ($258,700), Avg score 52.2, BE 56
Blair’s job is done, and he did it very well. He’s risen a monstrous $146K in value and scored a tonne of points over the bye weekends which is exactly what his owners bought him for.
It’s time to ship him out as he’s not a keeper in the halves or in the centres.
Trent Hodkinson ($212,700), Avg score 46.9, BE 46
Hodkinson has proven to be a tremendous buy this season. He’s risen in value over $110K and provided excellent bye coverage.
With the bye season nearly done (and the Bulldogs not playing this weekend) it’s time to move him out. Thanks, Trent!
Front-row forwards
The Good
Jamie Buhrer ($225,000), Avg score 42.3, BE 18
Buhrer isn’t worth purchasing this week but those who own him have got one more price rise left to enjoy before it’s time to ship him out. He really came good at the right time of the season.
Darcy Lussick ($199,800), Avg score 38.8, BE 23
Moving in to the back row has worked wonders for Lussick. His last three games have seen him average 55.7 and play at least 61 minutes each week.
He’s a good buy this week as he’ll provide a solid scoring option over the bye weekend as well as rise nicely in price over the coming weeks making him an easy upgrade.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves ($277,300), Avg score 64, BE 62
JWH’s price has dropped significantly after scoring 9 in round 9, but it has now bottomed out and is about to start rising again.
He’s been one of the better players in the front row this season and if you’re in the market this is the week to buy him.
The Bad
Robbie Farah ($389,600), Avg score 84.5, BE 110
Anyone who’s stuck with Farah throughout the Origin period would be crazy to trade him out this week, but those without him could save a few dollars by waiting to buy him next week.
He is an absolute must-own player for the remainder of the season.
Aaron Woods ($329,500), Avg score 74.3, BE 100
Woods’ story is the same as Farah’s, if you own him hold him, if you don’t own him consider waiting a week before buying him. He’s also a must-own player.
James Segeyaro ($248,300), Avg score 58.2, BE 95
See the ‘Halfback and Five-eighth’ section.
Aiden Tolman ($305,500), Avg score 62.1, BE 74
Tolman’s time has come. He’s been great over the bye period but there are much better options in the front row for the rest of the season.
Dale Finucane ($204,300), Avg score 40, BE 44
Finucane has been a solid yet unspectacular performer this season. He’s risen nearly $79,000 in value and provided great bye coverage for his owners but there’s no point holding on to him any longer.
Free up some cash by trading him for a cheap player or upgrade him to a gun.
Second-row forwards
The Good
Daniel Harrison ($175,500), Avg score 54, BE 2
With three games under his belt this season Harrison’s price is on the move. He’s averaging a solid 54 points in 67 minutes per game, and will see some healthy price rises over the coming weeks.
The only worry is Ricky Stuart, who chops and changes the Eels’ line-up like a kid on a red cordial bender.
Tyrone Peachey ($120,200), Avg score 39.2, BE 3
See the ‘Halfback and Five-eighth’ section.
Jamie Buhrer ($225,000), Avg score 42.3, BE 18/Darcy Lussick ($199,800), Avg score 38.8, BE 23/Dale Finucane ($204,300), Avg score 40, BE 44
See the ‘Front-row forwards’ section.
The Bad
Sonny Bill Williams ($309,300), Avg score 73.4, BE 117
He’s a must own player in the second row for the remainder of the season but for those who don’t own him it’s worth waiting a week before making a purchase. It seems like an eternity ago people were wondering whether he was going to be any good this season.
David Taylor ($282,000), Avg score 55.1, BE 98
Between injuries, stints in reserve grade and poor scores 2013 has been a year to forget for Taylor. When he’s on he’s an elite SuperCoach option but at this point in the season there’s no point waiting to see if he’ll turn his season around. Move him out this week before his price drops any further.
Anthony Watmough ($295,900), Avg score 69.5, BE 97
The representative season hasn’t been kind to Watmough and his price has dropped nearly $80K since round 9. He’s still one of the best scorers in the second row this season and will be a great buy after his price has dropped one more time.
Wade Graham ($245,100), Avg score 48.1, BE 95
(See the Halfback and 5/8 section)
Justin Horo ($240,000), Avg score 51.4, BE 66
Horo has risen a cool $109K in price since the start of the season and provided a handy score of 65 over the Round 18 bye week. He’s no longer worth hanging on to and should be traded out this week.
Tariq Sims ($238,500), Avg score 45.1, BE 60
Pedestrian scoring and inconsistent game time have been the story for Tariq so far this season.
His current BE is well above his season average and it’s time to trade him to free up cash or bring in a second row keeper.
Tohu Harris ($237,900), Avg score 51.5, BE 43
With the bye period almost over it’s time to move on from Harris. He’ll return to his role off the bench for the Storm’s next game (in round 20) and his price has pretty much peaked.
Centre/Wing
The Good
Jorge Taufua ($295,400), Avg score 60.8, BE -47
Taufua has been an absolute monster over the last fortnight and his BE is awesome as a result. He’s closing in on keeper status in the centre/wing spot but his hefty price tag will make him tough to buy this week.
If you own him and don’t view him as a keeper he’ll be ripe to upgrade in a couple of weeks time.
David Williams ($189,900), Avg score 42, BE -35
Williams has been pretty average all season but has hit a purple patch over his last two games. He’s not worth a purchase this week but if you own him get ready to move him out in a week or two.
James Roberts ($185,500), Avg score 58, BE -15
With a score of 116 in his rolling average for one more week Roberts has one more hefty price rise to come. Next week looks like it will the ideal time to cash Roberts in.
The Bad
Reece Robinson ($224,400), Avg score 48.9, BE 110
Being named on the wing with a huge BE signals the end of Reece Robinson’s fantasy relevance. If you own him make sure he’s out of your team before this weekend.
Maurice Blair ($258,700), Avg score 52.2, BE 56
(See the Halfback and 5/8 section)
Peta Hiku ($205,100), Avg score 50, BE 45
Hiku has been a sensational money maker this season but it’s time to cut him loose. With a full strength Manly back line he’s been relegated to reserve grade and won’t be helping your team out any further.
Fullback
The Good
Brett Stewart ($220,800), Avg score 45.5, BE -60
Stewart is yet another Sea Eagle who has gone ballistic over the last fortnight. He’s definitely not worth purchasing this week but if you own him upgrade him or cash him in after he plays two more games.
James Roberts ($185,500), Avg score 58, BE -15
See the ‘Centre/Wing’ section.
The Bad
Billy Slater ($281,300), Avg score 62.9, BE 129
Slater has been one of the best SuperCoach performers at fullback so far this season. A couple of down weeks have sent his BE through the roof and he’ll be irresistibly cheap in a one or two weeks time.
Josh Dugan ($333,000), Avg score 69, BE 92
See the ‘Halfback and Five-eighth’ section.
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