I am basing my analysis of Collingwood’s best team for the rest of the year on who has objectively added value to the team according to a special formula.

This is a ‘Real Player Value’ formula that I have used. The slightly impractical result of the formula that can occur when taking this approach is that players might get picked out of position.

It is my belief however that where a player players is less important than what they contribute in a real and objective manner. In any case I will try to provide a justification for the team I have come up with.

I have attached the list of Collingwood Real Player Value’s for people to take a look at.

This list also shows each player’s average score, standard deviation and 99% confidence range of scores. For the less mathematically minded this range is the range that we can be 99% confident that player will perform within.

So in the case of Scott Pendlebury for example he averages 2.32 goals of real value with a standard deviation of 1.1 goals.

Over a sample size of his 16 games this season that means we can be 99% confident that he will perform within 3.03 and 1.61 goals of real value on average.

This is the team that provides the most value on average irrespective of consistency. This means although Travis Cloke, for example, is by far the least reliable player with the biggest fluctuations in form, he still adds more value than all but two players on average.

I have tried to take positioning into account somewhat and have omitted players who are injured and probably/definitely won’t play again this year.

Bear in mind also that I am not picking this team based on who could potentially add value or who could improve and become more valuable, only on who has demonstrated the most real value so far this season.

Collingwood’s best 22 – Round 18 2013

FB Maxwell, Brown, Russell
HB O’Brien, Reid, Shaw
C Sidebottom, Ball, Swan
HF Blair, Goldsack, J Thomas
FF Elliot, Cloke, Martin
FOLL Jolly, Pendlebury, Beams
INT Seedsman, Williams, Keefe
SUB Clarke

Full Backs
Nick Maxwell: Looking at the analysis, Maxwell is arguably the most important player on this team. I was tempted to write an entire article in defence of Maxwell as captain of Collingwood because I think he is maligned in some ways by opposition supporters.

Maxwell adds the eighth most value of anyone on the team but importantly has the lowest standard deviation of any of the top 10 players. This makes him the most reliable of Collingwood’s elite players and therefore arguably the best full stop.

He’s at his best when he doesn’t have to take on the big forwards one on one and this backline of experienced players, when settled, would probably see him at his best.

Brown: Also probably underrated in some ways, Nathan Brown has established himself as Collingwood’s number one big stopping defender. Injured last week and in doubt this week, Collingwood probably rely on Brown to take out a big forward more than they let on.

He probably doesn’t get a lot of kudos from the media but the formula says that he adds about 1.18 goals of real value every game.

This makes him more valuable than the likes of more recognised players like Sidebottom, Ball and O’Brien and if you think about it he’s pretty rarely beaten.

Russell: Jordan Russell is an interesting one. Ostensibly he’s the backline equivalent of Ben Hudson, an experienced middle tier player on the list for depth to cover injuries. He has only played in spurts this year and just as was the case when he played at Carlton he cops a bit for his perceived flaws.

Most people probably remember his ordinary game against Hawthorn and a spate of errors against Essendon (this was actually his best game of the year).

He’s not right up the list but he’s versatile enough to play deep back, half back and would even be serviceable up on the wing in rotation.

Half Backs
O’Brien: Unfortunately Harry O’Brien won’t be remembered for his football in 2013. This is a shame because he’s probably played some of the best games of his career.

He’s added versatility by moving to the wing at times and when he defends like he did in the Magpies game against Geelong he’s truly an elite running defender. If he gets well off-field O’Brien is easily in the best 22 and at 26 years old he even has room and time to improve.

Reid: Adding 1.91 goals of real value makes Ben Reid Collingwood’s second most valuable player. If you take into consideration that he’s an All-Australian centre half back who has recently gone forward and proved a more reliable forward than Travis Cloke, then his ranking is unsurprising.

Reid is valuable not just in objective value terms but subjectively in terms of how he compliments the team whether he plays in defence or up forward. The only issue with Reid is that there’s not two of him. In fact do you reckon he could play in the ruck?

Shaw: Another player who has attracted some criticism for no-football related issues, Shaw has still had a good season and continues to add value to his team.

His demeanour might seem a little abrasive towards his team mates at times but, let’s be honest, since his smother on Riewoldt in 2010 Grand Final he’s earned some brownie points.

Shaw’s performance is even more notable if you consider that he’s had to play as a genuine one on one defender more this year than even before. He might not be streaking off half back as much but that’s because he’s now taking an opponent head on and thwarting attacks with his spoiling.

He’s a better player for the experience and has now demonstrated he’s more than capable as a stopper as well as a runner from the backline.

Centre Line
Swan: I’ve listed Swan on the wing because I had three other players in mind for the centre/follower roles. I also think it suits him just a bit better.

If you look at Swans stats he’s probably more of an outside player than people realise. He’s strong and balanced around the ball which makes him a decent clearance player but he doesn’t really tackle and throw himself around like a proper inside midfielder like say Josh Kennedy.

He also cops a bit for average disposal and this is the only thing that see’s Swan drop to 9th overall in terms of value added to this team. With a full complement of midfielders Swan can get outside more and with more space and time you’ll see his efficiency improve. I think its little coincidence that he plays better footy when the likes of Luke Ball are in the team.

Ball: Before he came to Collingwood it looked like Luke Ball might never run again let alone perform at his best. When he’s fit he’s as important a midfielder as any of them. He ranks as the 11th most valuable player a ranking only hurt by low-ish disposal efficiency.

Sure everyone could stand to kick a bit better but Ball’s value lies in his tackling and clearance work around stoppages. You can forgive the occasional shank when he’s blindly clearing the footy with 10 players trying to tackle him.

Sidebottom: At his best Sidebottom could win a Brownlow. His sense of how to keep the ball in front of himself, gather it and hit targets with precision is just about as good as any player in the League.

For Collingwood to be excellent he needs to kick goals as well. He’s 10th ranked on my list so he’s still very valuable but has had some average games this year. Still super young, he’ll probably end up playing 250 games and wining a couple of Copeland Trophies.

Half Forwards
Blair: I realise Jarryd Blair has played on ball almost exclusively this year but to be frank I’m not convinced this where he should stay in the long term.

He is always going to give 100% and tackles a lot but his disposal has suffered a bit, I think from being under more pressure than he’s used to. No doubt it’s good for him to gain midfield experience but I reckon going forward he’s at his most dangerous creating pressure and turnovers in the forward line and using his awareness to pinch crumbing goals.

Goldsack: Tyson Goldsack is for all intents and purposes the most underrated player at Collingwood. For years he was a rangy half back flank with a big boot. Now he’s a rangy half forward with a big boot but in reality he’s so much more.

Statistically, in real terms, Goldsack is almost as valuable as Cloke. He’s more reliable if less likely to tear games open with a big bag. Usually he’s described as a ‘defensive forward’, but this probably overlooks his real value. Sure he provides forward line pressure with defensive acts but he’s actually quite a good kick and versatile enough to outrun big defenders and out mark small ones. Any way you cut it, Goldsack is a top five player in terms of adding value to this team.

J Thomas: Josh Thomas has been great this year, if for no other reason than he has filled the ‘Thomas’ void that would have been too much to bear for most Collingwood supporters in Dale’s absence.

Although the sample size is obviously different (Dale has only played five games this year and probably won’t play again… this year…?) Josh Thomas has performed marginally better than his namesake. Even without injuries he adds enough value to be in the best 22. His strength is as an inside midfielder or defensive forward, which is where I have listed him.

In reality he would rotate as another midfielder without being a genuine half forward type of player. On this year’s evidence he has a successful career in front of him.

Full Forwards
Elliot: He’s still inconsistent but when you play as a genuine small forward that’s probably just something you have to live with.

Elliot still isn’t a volume possession getter but I don’t believe he has to be to add value to his team. You’d think he will develop his game away from goal and this will take him to the next level. At present he’s extremely good one on one for his size and a great kick from most angles inside 50.

Just as a side note in his first ever game for Collingwood he laid 15 tackles. I haven’t seen him repeat the feat but if he can up his tackling and hold the ball inside 50 a bit more Collingwood might play some competitive finals.

Cloke: What can you even say? Frustrating as ever, Travis Cloke has been an enigma since day one.

Pound for pound he’s as good an endurance athlete as the game has seen. I heard a radio conversation the other day about whether you’d prefer a Nick Riewoldt type forward or a Cloke type forward. Just quietly it’s this kind of thinking that overlooks how athletic Cloke is.

Yes he can out-muscle virtually anyone and has some of the safest hands in history but he works up and down the ground relentlessly. The only issue, and it’s a big one, his kicking.

I’m of the belief that you can’t have one without the other. That is, you can’t have a full forward who draws the ball as well as he does but who you are confident will kick a goal from the goal square. If you take out Cloke’s two biggest games this year his stats go down dramatically, and to be honest I’m not convinced that he produces his best football frequently enough to be a properly dangerous full forward.

Having said that he add more value than all but two players – take them out he still averages enough to rank 13th in terms of value added. Of course he’s in the best 22 players; I just reckon he’s better up the ground at centre half forward.

Martin: Kyle Martin has also only played a handful of games but the form he has shown placed him in the best 22 on my calculations. With finals looming (although maybe not if they keep losing to teams below them) Collingwood shouldn’t be too worried about playing youth just for the sake of giving them experience.

They have already done a good job of utilising the depth of their list. Having said that the likes of Josh Thomas and Kyle Martin deserve their place in their own right and deserve to get picked. The fact that this might mean they get to play in a final inside the first 20 games of their career is a bonus.

Followers
Jolly: The analysis might have been unnecessary here – Darren Jolly is Collingwood’s best ruck. He’s even more important because Collingwood don’t have either a genuine replacement or a great second ruck. Hudson has been consistent and tries but simply doesn’t add enough value to replace Jolly adequately.

Incidentally a closer look at Jolly’s form reveals only one game where he was genuinely ‘poor’. This was the round four match against Carlton where he was injured and came off early. If we excuse this result because of injury his value goes up significantly.

Pendlebury: The best on this list, this year by far. Scott Pendlebury adds more value than any of teammates. Has not had a game where he didn’t positively add value to the side. My analysis shows that with 99% confidence we can expect Pendlebury to contribute between 3.03 goals and 1.61 goals of real value.

He doesn’t always get the most possessions, although he often does, but he always adds value to his team with everything he does. He is renowned for his precise skills but this can belie the work he does inside packs. His tackling and clearance work at stoppages is beyond elite. He’s one of the best players in the entire League full stop.

Beams: Clearly the issue here is playing time in 2013. Beams form last year took his reputation up a notch and put him in a new class of goal kicking midfielders. His two games in 2013 have produced form which by my calculations makes him the fifth ranked player in terms of Real Value Added.

A larger sample size is probably needed to be confident that he’s back in form but he’d get picked on last year’s Copeland Trophy winning form in any case. If he can get back to kicking a couple of goals a game he will improve this side markedly.

Interchange
Seedsman: 14th ranked on my list in terms of value added, Paul Seedsman has really matured as a player. He is and explosive runner and long accurate kick and his skill set makes him an ideal outside midfielder who can penetrate going forward or provide momentum off half back. He’s also very young still so the signs are good in terms of charting his improvement as a player.

Williams: Marley Williams has played primarily as a half back but of late has moved up to the wing a bit more and has started to gather more of the ball in doing so. He seems like a tenacious hard running player who can provide relief in rotation through midfield or go back to release Shaw, O’Brien or Russell further up the ground.

Keefe: Lachlan Keefe is my wild card here. Ok he’s only been back for one game and it was in a loss to the Gold Coast. His form wasn’t outstanding and more games are obviously needed to get a better understanding of where he’s at. However his one game gives him enough form to get into the best 22, albeit only because three players ahead of him (Alan Toovey, Ben Johnson and Dale Thomas) are all out for the remainder of the season.

I reckon Keefe could be a winner though. At 200cm he’s a ruckman for height but he plays as a key defender. This could make him one of the more unique prospects in the whole league. Let’s call him a key defender and say that’s where he needs to play.

That would potentially take pressure off Maxwell, O’Brien and Shaw in terms of taking a forward and allow them to play more offensively. It could also free Reid to swing forward when needed or keep them all down back for a fairly tall defensive unit if needed.

The key here however is that in the side I have put together there is no official second ruck. With Jolly aging and injured this puts the job on Keefe. It might seem folly to play people out of position and indeed playing Keefe in this role might decrease his value. Nevertheless none of the options available none of Lynch, Hudson or Witts have performed well enough to demand the position. It would be worth a try in any case. Keefe could take ruck duties say 10%-20% of the time and roll back to defence as opposed to the traditional ruck/forward.

It might also give Collingwood the unique option of a tagging ruckman who could be responsible for tagging the likes of Natanui, Cox, Roughead or other forward/rucks who otherwise would try to exploit a smaller defender or take Hudson/Jolly/Lynch/Witts back to play as defenders where they are less comfortable.

Substitute
Clarke: Marty Clarke has fallen out of favour in the latter part of this season which I found somewhat strange because I think he’s a really useful player.

He’s another player who only gets into my best 22 because of injuries to more valuable players but he’s in over some candidates who have played a fair bit of football this year and as far as my formula is concerned, haven’t played as well as Clarke.

The sub is a tough role to play and logic says the role should be filled by a midfielder. Although not a midfielder in the truest sense Clarke is a lovely kick and hard-working running player.

Contrary to belief he’s improved his work at stoppages and isn’t incapable of laying a tackle. Part of the issue with this role is that typically the role is filled by ‘energy’ midfielders who can add significantly to rotations through the middle of the ground and play right up on the ball. I reckon this results in players coming on for a quarter banging in like headless chooks and maybe getting 10 touches.

In their haste to be impactful more often than not these players don’t have quality touches and don’t exhibit the necessary patience required to be truly effective. I think that rather than emphasising ‘energy’ and pace of the bench Collingwood would be better served injecting a player who will provide skill and precision late in the game when tired players are more likely to make errors. Clarke could definitely be that player and even if he only collects 6 touches as the sub if he doesn’t turn it over then he’s done is job.

Notable players to miss out
Macaffer: With all the recent talk about Collingwood needing a tagger most people probably think Brent Macaffer has to play. I just don’t think he does enough in enough different statistical categories to warrant being picked. Truthfully since moving to a tagging type of role, who has he really taken out of the game? I can recall he had a decent game on Dal Santo but I’m not convinced he’s good enough at the role just yet.

Dwyer: The fairy tale ends here. He’s been ok and it’s really impressive to get as many AFL games as he has given his journey through the VFL (although this is more common these days see Podsiadly, Brett Goodes etc). But he can’t complain about lack of opportunity, he’s had his moments but there are just better players ahead of him.

Sinclair: What’s happening with Ben Sinclair? He looked like a really useful small forward come midfielder but since a few ordinary games at the beginning of the year in that position he’s been tried all over the place. He could still be good long term but he’s had the opportunity to demonstrate his value this year and hasn’t stepped up.

Lynch: All would probably be forgiven if he would just start kicking straight. His form really early on was super encouraging but he’s fallen way off and has lost his spot to Witts. Most people would bet on him coming good but I’m making the calls on demonstrated form and on that basis Lynch doesn’t get in.

Hudson: It’s a bit of shame that he doesn’t get in to be honest because I like him and I like the bang and crash tackling/clearance type of ruck that he is. I did think for a while that a ruck tandem of Jolly and Hudson might work ok but the numbers didn’t pan out for him. He’s awfully reliable but simply doesn’t add enough value to demand being picked.

Karakouer: What can I say that isn’t already known? He’s a freak in terms of talent and if you picked a side on what people could do he’d be the first in. He just isn’t doing it enough this year. Basically had one ripper game against Geelong and that’s it. I reckon he’s just not producing enough often enough to get picked when the Pies main focus should be trying to win finals.

Didak: Gooooonnnnee! Well it doesn’t seem like Buckley rates him any more anyway so irrespective of my thoughts you’d think this is his last year at Collingwood. Only had two games to show anything and by my assessment was a net drain on both occasions. If he gets a game again I hope he rips a checkside from off the boundary and immediately walks out of the stadium because he deserves to be remembered as a freakishly skilled disposer of the footy.

Witts: Unfair to be too harsh on a young developing ruckman but he’s only been pretty average so far. Definitely showed signs of improvement though which is a big plus because he needs to fill a gaping hole in the next few years. When Darren Jolly and Ben Hudson retire he’s bound to get a game because, well, he’ll be near enough to the only ruckman on the list….

Kennedy: Good to have got games into a young player, in fact depending on how you look at it Buckley has managed youth, injuries, bizarre confessions of psychological trauma and supposed infighting really well.

With the exception of the ruck department Collingwood have an interesting and deep mix of young and old players and Kennedy is a big part of that perception. Unfortunately lots of games as the sub have hurt his chances of really adding value and based on his production I would say he’s well outside the best 22.

Let me know your thoughts!