In a result that surprised most observers, Collingwood trounced their bitter ANZAC Day rivals to the tune of 79 points this past Sunday evening.
This result has shone a light on the form of the respective sides and in particular some of the contributors and non-contributors for both teams.
It’s easy to be reactionary but let us try to succinctly glean some short term implications from this game – I’ve used my set of formulas.
Collingwood – Best 3
Travis Cloke: Subjectively Cloke was enormous on the basis that wet conditions typically don’t suit his style of play. By my assessment he was worth 5.24 goals. This is slightly more in real terms that his nominal output of 5 goals.
The real key for Cloke was that every one of his 14 possessions was an effective possession and his five goals came without a miss. He took three contested marks, which is essentially his average but they came on a day when marking was difficult and this made him an even more significant player.
This is the game that Cloke should model his play on for the rest of his career. He was a lightning rod for the best opposition defenders, an efficient conduit for facilitating his teammates and crucially kicked accurately. Best on ground.
Ben Reid: Reid was second best on for similar reasons to Cloke. He was able to take contested marks and possession on a day when most people could not, magnifying his value. He was worth 4.64 goals in real terms, used the ball fairly well, took four contested marks and had two goal assists.
His value in real, objective terms was above his nominal output of goals however his value in a subjective sense is what makes him so important. Since 2010 Collingwood haven’t been able to organise perfectly the ruck/forward and second forward roles to perfection.
Quentin Lynch and Lachlan Keefe are important factors in this combination also but Reid’s ability to go forward as a second marking option and release pressure from Cloke is hard to quantify and makes an enormous difference to Collingwood’s chances of winning.
Lachlan Keefe: Keefe is the interesting one for me I ranked him as worth 2.6 goals in real terms which made him the third best player on the ground. Watching this game live it might have been easy to ignore his value because the ball spent less time at his end and his game is not an eye catching or spectacular one.
He took Scott Gumbleton completely out of the game, repelled almost every attack (in conjunction with Nathan Brown) and used the ball at 87% efficiency. This isn’t uncommon for Keefe who is usually very efficient by hand and foot. The fact that he is 200cm tall and it was wet underlines the significance of this stat.
He’s been very reliable in his three games this year and projects impressively as a long term defender. Additionally his ability to take a key forward means that Reid can play forward without robbing the backline of a key defender. In all these factors make him one of the most important players in the short and long term for Collingwood.
Essendon – Worst 3
It might seem unfair or reactionary to bash the Bombers after an unexpectedly big loss and at a time when on field performance is arguably not their main concern.
Their season has been great and if you look over at my blog you can see a spread sheet that shows the rankings of Bombers players this year. Nevertheless when you lose by 79 points there’s bound to be some ordinary players and these were the most ordinary in my opinion.
Travis Colyer: The worst player on the ground, his efforts cost Essendon 1.32 goals in real terms. Normally Colyer might come on as a sub and you would give him a pass for his performance. On this occasion he played the whole game but was just poor.
No doubt many would’ve expected a nimble player like Colyer to excel in the wet but the conditions called for aggressive, honest, contested play and Colyer simply does not have these weapons in his armoury. Eight possessions all of which were uncontested and only half of which were effective, highlights just how poor he was.
He has been around long enough to know what’s expected in a match and in conditions like he played in on Sunday and just didn’t show any backbone. I’d suggest he’ll be cut from the side this year or for next.
Dustin Fletcher: Although he wasn’t the most ineffectual player for the day (3 Collingwood players – Grundy, J Thomas and Macaffer added less value by my calculations and of course the aforementioned Colyer) Fletcher struggled badly in this game. I think he was responsible for costing the Bombers .56 in real terms and for once he looked his age.
Incidentally was he involved in the peptide program? Because his rubber band limbs suggest they didn’t take in any case. Looked slow and struggled to play on Reid or get across for intercept marks. Still in their best 22 but probably in the lower quartile now and at the end of the day tall defenders are not in short supply at Essendon.
Scott Gumbleton: Gumbleton cost his side 0.29 goals in real terms. It would be too easy to say ‘it wasn’t a day for big forwards, because for the Magpies it was an excellent day for big forwards and defenders. What is perhaps more accurate is that it was a high risk day.
If you took your chances, few though they may have been, your value would skyrocket and if not then it plummeted. This is probably true for low possession key position players on most days. Gumbleton’s season has been good for just 6 games, however he was dominated by Keefe and Brown and simply did not provide value at all.
Long term the question mark is still fitness, if he could just play a full season you might see some of his potential. Truthfully I still believe he’s a worthwhile if risky investment but I’m not his doctor and if he can’t play more than half a season in any given year he may go the way of Courtney Johns.
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