Every year in the AFL, there are close matches that can set up a team’s season and also at the same time ruin them.
This season those results are likely to be more costly or beneficial than usual under the current climate involving the Essendon Football Club.
With the long awaited ASADA report now in the hands of the AFL and the Bombers and the release of the findings imminent, we are set to find out before the finals if Essendon will be found guilty of wrong doing regarding providing their players with banned substances.
If that’s the case, there continues to be speculation that the players themselves will escape sanctions, but surely the club will be severely penalised and rightly so with a huge fine and the loss of premiership points from 2013 being talked about as possible repurcussions.
The Bombers sit fifth at the moment with four rounds to play and have 13 victories.
The top eight actually looks settled if Essendon isn’t stripped of their points with the vastly improved, Port Adelaide in eighth and two victories ahead of Carlton in ninth position.
However, if the Bombers are forced out of the race that means the last spot in the eight is up for grabs and currently the Blues are a game clear of North Melbourne, who have a much better percentage.
West Coast and Brisbane also sit on eight wins, but the Lions have a percentage 37 percent inferior to the Kangaroos, so they are effectively a further two wins adrift of the eight.
Brisbane has managed to run down several opponents in the last quarter and win by narrow margins, while close losses are a very good chance of being the difference between North Melbourne playing footy in September or going on holidays.
They have lost five games by less than a goal and actually led most of those matches by significant margins especially Adelaide in Round 9 when they coughed up a lead of more than five goals to lose with virtually the last kick of the day.
Geelong back in Round 2 when they were in front all day and by as much as 41 points near half time only to lose again on the siren is another example of one that got away.
They also had Brisbane’s measure, but were again swamped in the final term and Carlton beat them by a point, but this time it was North, who were well behind before flying home, only to fall short again.
With such a healthy percentage, a win in one of those would have had the Roos in ninth and more than just a slim possibility of playing finals footy.
However, if the truth be known, North Melbourne probably doesn’t deserve to be there, despite playing better footy for longer than some of those teams already booked for September action.
However, with the Bombers future beyond the home-and-away season for 2013 still in a state of flux, the Kangaroos will be hoping their resolve to withstand another withering comeback by Geelong last week will give them the confidence to keep winning for the rest of the season to stay in the race.
Carlton with nine victories know their destiny is still in their own hands, but haven’t beaten anyone above them this year.
Even though they beat the Roos by the barest of margins, there’s no doubt North over the season is a better team and for the Blues to do what their fans expect of them if they make the finals and that is to be more competitive, they must beat sides in the eight
After the Bulldogs this week, where they will start as warm favourites, they get that chance to prove themselves against the better teams, Richmond, Essendon and Port.
They will probably need to win all three, if Essendon isn’t stripped of all their points. The Blues will need at least two, if the Bombers are and on form not sure Mick Malthouse’s men can achieve that.
West Coast seem to have too many injuries to make it and like Brisbane require too many things out of their control to be in the finals. In short, those teams are mathematical possibilities at best.
Port Adelaide is the one that deserves to be there. Their draw isn’t easy, with games against Geelong away, Gold Coast at home, Fremantle away and the Blues at home at Footy Park to come.
However, they keep winning especially the close ones and with this fanatical self-belief new coach Ken Hinkley has drilled into them, they will be formidable opponents for the remainder of the season and will get the opportunity to be part of finals action for the first time since 2007.
Maybe on last week’s effort, North might have learnt the Port Adelaide way as well, but is it too late?
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