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Has the premiership race been turned on its head by in the last two weeks, or will Rounds 19 and 20 be mere bumps in the road to glory for the true contenders?
In this time, the three firm flag favourites – Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong – have been soundly beaten by sides residing on the tier or two below them.
The Cats were outpaced by the Roos on the fast track of Etihad and, not for the first time this season, unable to control the ball as they like to do.
In their last two losses, the other being to Adelaide in Round 17, they’ve lost the possession count by an average of 99.
In fact, over the last two months, Geelong is a far from imposing 5-3, with each loss to a side sitting outside the eight, and four of the wins coming against weak or weakened opposition at Skilled Stadium.
Were the losses simply understandable mental lapses in a long winter for a club readying itself for a seventh straight spring campaign, or tell-tale signs of a deeper malaise?
The positive for the Cats is an average losing margin for the year of under a goal, and they’ve been able to rotate plenty of players through the senior side over the course of the year.
Only three players, Joel Selwood, Andrew Mackie and Mitch Duncan, have played every game, and Duncan only played four minutes on Saturday against Port before being subbed out with concussion, so can consider himself rested.
Three weeks out from finals, it’s time for Chris Scott to bed the best 22 down, with particular focus on the ruck division and injury cloud surrounding Tom Hawkins.
Hawthorn were schooled by a side quickly becoming their nemesis in the rising Tigers. Their last two losses to Richmond have totalled 103 points, while their six other losses across 2012-13 have been by a combined 56.
Including last year’s grand final, the Hawks most recent four losses have been noticeable for them winning the inside 50 count, but being unable to prevent the opposition from rebounding on a consistent and deadly basis.
Foot speed is a weapon against them, as well as a gameplan that can switch the ball quickly in defence and spread to the open side of the ground.
When the Hawks set up defensively on one side of the oval, the likes of Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis and Shaun Burgoyne can’t spread quickly enough to cover any fleet-of-foot runners from the opposition.
Of course, this is made difficult when Hawthorn controls the ball as well as they can. But it’s hard to replicate that level of control under finals pressure and intensity, which is why the Hawks have often come unstuck deep into September.
That said, a side with a forward line consisting of Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead as the main targets, Jack Gunston as the third tall, and Cyril Rioli and Luke Bruest as the tackling small forwards capable of multiple goals, is always going to be dangerous.
Sydney were outrun, outworked and outplayed against Collingwood, put to the sword by a midfield that arguably beats their own for top end quality, and is now running just as deep.
The Swans are certainly fallible, but it takes a four quarter effort from a gut-running midfield, versatile forward line and sturdy defence.
Their record against fellow top eight sides in 2013 is also a cause for concern, recording more losses than wins.
But it’s hard to think their entire midfield, save for Jarrad McVeigh, could all be down again for the rest of the year, as they were on Saturday night.
None of Josh Kennedy, Ryan O’Keefe, Keiran Jack, Tom Mitchell, Luke Parker or Jude Bolton could top 20 disposals, and their influence was even less than their numbers would indicate.
Kurt Tippett has only played eight matches, but already leads the Sydney goalkicking, and is three times the player he was during his Adelaide days.
Rhys Shaw has just come back and will get better, while Lewis Jetta and Adam Goodes, upon their return, will add plenty of class in the front half of the ground.
Were these the losses that some people think a contender needs to have in the lead up to the finals, sharpening their focus, or is the flag race more open that we had earlier supposed?
Fremantle is a legitimate threat, reminiscent in some ways of Adelaide in 1997.
No one gave them a whole lot of thought, even though they finished fourth, but they were the number one ranked defence that year, and conceded only 11 goals a game through the finals on their way to the flag.
The Dockers are more than capable of replicating such a feat.
There’s a good chance they’ll be drawn to play Geelong at Etihad in the first week of the finals, a venue they play very well, and we all saw what they did to the Cats at the MCG in the elimination final last year. A home preliminary final is still very much on the cards.
Collingwood are the dangerous floater, and are a side the top four will want to avoid at all costs.
History tells us it’s simply too difficult to win a flag from the bottom half of the eight, having to defeat three better credentialed opponents along the way, but not many have a premiership midfield to call upon to do it like the Pies do.
They also look much more dangerous with Ben Reid up forward complementing Travis Cloke.
Richmond won’t be taken lightly in September, especially at the MCG, having claimed the Hawks and Dockers as scalps there in recent times.
Few teams are better at running in waves than the Tiges when they’re up and about, and it will surprise some to learn they have conceded the third fewest points so far this year.
With only three home and away rounds to go, nothing is set in stone, especially with the Swans, Hawks, Cats and Pies still to play each other in one form or another.
The finals series to follow could well be the most open we’ve seen in a decade. Expect plenty of classic clashes before the season concludes.
The weaknesses of the top three teams have been on display for all to see in recent weeks. All that’s left now is to expose them on the biggest stage.