Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle. The top four is pretty much locked in stone, and therefore – so the conventional wisdom goes – one of that quartet will bring home the bacon come September.
Why’s this? Well, history says so.
The wise old football prophets have peered into the past and found under the current top eight system no team has so much as made a grand final, let alone pinched a flag, from the bottom half of the eight.
Only two have even progressed to a preliminary final: Hawthorn in 2001, and Collingwood in 2007.
Therefore, no top-four spot, no flag. You can’t argue with history… can you?
The trouble with this accepted wisdom is it’s based on a pretty small set of numbers – we’ve only had the present finals system since the year 2000.
It’s a big call to say this is a pattern that will never be broken, and season 2013 offers the best opportunity yet in two sides hitting form at just the right time.
In Collingwood we’ve got a proven premiership-winning outfit decimated by injury early in the year and only returning to full strength in the back half of the season, while in Richmond we have a young team learning the ropes and clicking together in ominous fashion just in time for finals, with a comprehensive dismantling of flag favourites Hawthorn to their name.
On top of their recent momentum, there’s one crucial factor playing to the advantage of these two teams – they’re both Victorian.
That’s right, I’m going there.
The Vics enjoy a significant advantage when it comes to pinching a flag from outside the top four.
Why? Well, one of the key challenges of finishing fifth to eight is the prospect of having to win not only four games on the trot, but having to do so playing away from home for potentially the entire finals series.
Victorians have a much higher chance of bumping into crosstown rivals, meaning they can enjoy a neutral venue setting, rather than an unfamiliar ground packed with hostile fans.
On top of that, the grand final is a MCG affair, so if the Magpies or Tigers do make it all the way, they might even get a home ground advantage against their opponents.
Imagine if Collingwood lose the rest of their games this year and end up seventh.
Even then, they could potentially play the Tigers in the first week, the Cats week two, Hawthorn in the prelim and then enjoy home ground advantage against Sydney or Freo at the Big Dance.
All four weeks in Melbourne after barely scraping into the eight? Not a bad deal at all.
The flipside of this for Victorian sides is less of an advantage at the top end of the ladder.
Despite dominating the competition all year long, Geelong and Hawthorn are less likely to get home-ground advantage for the majority of the finals series.
But if Sydney or Freo can squeeze into the top two, they’ll get to enjoy a pair of games at their hometown fortresses.
So for at least six teams, there’s still plenty to play for in 2013. Collingwood and Richmond probably won’t get the perfect storm of results needed for the double chance, but they will get a chance to make history.
After all, who wants to win a flag from inside the top four anyway – as history has shown, anyone can do that.
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