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Looking at the first Bledisloe, the two teams played contrasting styles. Considering the few changes made to the teams, and the quick turn-around, it’s a fair bet that we will see similar game plans again this week.
So let’s take a look at them both.
The All Black plan
Clear your 22m, play no rugby in your half, use the ball in the opposition half, pressure to force errors in defence and on kick chase and accelerate attack immediately after a turnover or on kick counter-attack to strike quickly.
The ABs seemingly divide the field into four horizontal zones:
1. Inside the 22m – a swift, deep clearance kick, no exceptions.
2. 22m to halfway – an immediate, high, contestable kick, no exceptions.
3. Halfway to attacking 22m – ball in hand.
The forwards play in attacking pods, but it is difficult to see a pre-arranged pattern for how they use them. Sometimes the pods play off the 9, sometimes the 10, and very often they will react to quick ball with one-out pick and drives.
Sometimes they go left then right, at other times they exhaust one side in a same-way pattern. In general they use the short side with numbers wherever possible.
It looks a bit frantic and ad hoc, but it is done with speed, ferocity, confidence, and the support always reacts and gets there.
In the backs, it’s largely one-out runs by the 9, 10, and 12 done with speed and intent off quick ball, and don’t spread it to the open side unless there is a screaming overlap.
4. Inside the attacking 22m – they pick/drive, then go deep and wide and spread it to the edges with good straight running and great hands.
The Wallaby Plan
Clear your 22m to the safety of touch. Ball in hand for the rest of the field to dominate possession, limit AB attack opportunities, and force ruck infringements for kickable penalties.
Use the lineout as a weapon to attack from to score tries, and from which to create turnovers.
The Wallabiess divide the field into three horizontal zones:
1. Inside the 22m – a clearance kick to touch line.
However, we tried to spread it wide and run it twice last week, so maybe the players were also allowed to ‘play what was in front of them’?
2. Between the 22m lines – ball in hand using three forwards pods spread across the field.
The general pattern is a same-way pattern that exhausts right to the sideline, then bounces back to the open again. They shift two passes wide from the breakdown, with the running pod taking the ball off the 10.
It goes like this – left sideline pod run, tackle, two passes right, mid-field pod run, tackle, two passes right again, right sideline pod run, tackle. Repeat in opposite direction.
They did this last week with incredible discipline, and I was surprised on reviewing the match they gained regular territory this way, in contrast to previous games.
3. Inside attacking 22m – pick and drives, pod runners one pass off the 9, then backs spread it.
Why do they play that way?
The All Blacks know that when you play ball in hand in your own half for too long, you concede points.
So they just don’t do it. They play the game in the other half.
They also have superb kickers in 9, 10 and 15, and work extremely hard on kick chase to apply pressure. They are then mentally fresh for attacking with ball in hand in the opposition half.
They also trust their defence and use it as an attacking weapon to force handling errors, steals, and penalties in the opposition half.
In Super Rugby, 42% of tries were scored from kicks or turnovers, so it is an effective strategy.
The Wallabies also know they must clear their 22m, so they have picked the Brumbies kicking unit of Jesse Mogg and Matt Toomua, and a tall lineout to support effective exits from the 22m.
They hold the ball, rather than kick it, in the middle half of the field because they do not want to give the All Blacks’ back three the counter-attack opportunities that have killed us in the past.
They also know Christian Lealiifano is a deadly accurate goal kicker from anywhere inside 45m, and more tackling eventually pressures either a breakdown penalty, an offside penalty, or a tackle miss.
They hope this keeps the score board ticking over, while they patiently work for a line break or an overlap.
Going back to the lineout, they see their ability to go to the back with confidence (due to four very good jumpers), as their best attacking platform to create tries.
They also see it as a turnover weapon. In Super Rugby, 58% of tries originate from set piece, so this is also an effective tactic.
Which is best?
You have to play to your strengths, and you have to believe that you can win with your plan.
Then you have to pin the ears back and have 15 men thinking as one and committing their bodies and brains to make the plan work. No doubts, thoughts, or hesitation at all.
You also have to react quickly to the opportunities that present themselves unexpectedly.
Last week, the team that did this was the All Blacks. This week, the Wallaby combinations should be better for last week’s run, and they will have had another week with the new coaching staff to understand their roles and build confidence in the plan.
I don’t buy all of the chest beating that the All Blacks are just better in every position, and the Wallabies need to understand the hopelessness of their cause and accept another loss as inevitable.
Thankfully, that’s not how sport works!
That said, you can’t build the combinations and belief the All Blacks possess in just a couple of weeks. Typical Wellington conditions also favour a kicking game.
So, while I believe the Wallabies are on the right path, I can see the All Blacks getting home again in this one.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.