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We are only two weeks away from the finals and time to look at who we think will win the 2013 NRL premiership, but also represent value from the market place.
Let’s address who can win first.
There is no doubt that any of the top four teams, Souths, Roosters, Storm and Manly can win the big one.
I am happy to eliminate the other 12 teams not only because I don’t think they are good enough based on what we have seen this season, but because history says a team cannot come from outside the four and win.
Since 1999 when we have had a final eight system in place, no team can has come from outside the top 4 and won.
The AFL have had the top eight system since 2000 and no team has won from beyond the top three, which means in 27 grand finals teams outside the top four have been unsuccessful – an imposing stat.
So we are down to four teams now from 16, so we should look at the prices and determine if any of the top four are indeed value.
Premiers, the Melbourne Storm are the betting exchange elect. I must oppose them at these cramped odds because:
1. They will play their first up match away in Sydney which is rated as a negative five points. Last year they were able to play in Melbourne first up, a massive advantage.
2. No team has gone back to back since the Broncos in 97/98
3. No team has been able to back up from the World Club C’ship and win the P’ship this century.
The Storm is such a classy team and so well coached that they are good enough to be an exception to these persuasive points, but NOT at 3.85. They can run against us at those odds.
We are now down to three teams and up until last Monday night, the Roosters were the hot public elect. They have drifted from 3.85 to 4.1 but are still poor value based on:
1. Most grand finals are decided by the key position players and the Roosters rate a clear fourth from the big 4.
2. They have consistently shown poor discipline and an inability to build pressure via clever tactical kicking near the opposition try line.
3. They will not have Boyd Cordner for the crucial finals game in week one.
Any team with a +300 points differential and the best forward I have ever seen in Sonny Bill Williams gets my utmost respect, but given their spine, they represent poor value.
We now have two green bottles hanging on the wall in the name of South Sydney and Manly. I really like Souths because:
1. They have the best four key position combination of players plus their very own Sonny Bill Williams in Sam Burgess.
2. Luke Keary gives them an impact like no other teams has off the bench.
3. They know how to build pressure and have an outstanding tactical kicking game.
I would back them to beat any team if they have their best 17 available so 4.00 represents value given they will play at home ANZ first up.
Like most of the teams, no, all of the teams, injuries will dictate the results and if Manly are able to get their best 17 on the field they are as good as any team because:
1. They have the best 1, 6 and 7 combination.
2. They have the best backline.
They have a sense of timing and if they can stay fit then 7.0 is value.
If you think I put too much emphasis on key spine players well we only have to look at the top four teams to underline my point.
• The games best four half backs happen to be from the top four teams
• Three of the top five fullbacks are in the top four teams. Slater (Storm), Inglis (Souths), Stewart (Manly) will play top four footy with Dugan (Dragons) and Hayne (Eels) missing out.
• Two of the three top hookers in Smith (Storm) and Luke (Souths) will play in the top four with Farah (Tigers) missing out.
• Three of the top four pivots in Sutton (Souths), Maloney (Roosters) and Foran (Manly) will play in the top four with Thurston hoping to make the top eight
The top four teams are made up from the game’s best 12 key position players from a possible 18 (66.6%), which incredibly means the other 33.3% of the best spine players are spread over 12 teams.
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