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Ewen McKenzie’s version of Wallaby rugby has taken shape, forged by the unpleasant All Black anvil. Will his squad continue the good run against the Springboks? Or has that cycle run its course?
Will we see a return to South African dominance of the Wallabies under Heyneke Meyer’s more structured tutelage?
Based on the players Link and Meyer have available, given injury and their respective union’s rules about overseas stars; the teams’ form on display in 2013 at Test level (not Super Rugby, which can be hard to translate); and my omniscient powers of rugby discernment, I can guarantee you a narrow Bok win in Brisbane, by three to five points.
Why?
1. The Springboks’ kicking game
Both the starting iteration and reserve unit, has taken a low, powerful, brutal shape at scrum and ruck time and is soaring and safe at line-out and restart time.
In the Boks’ eight-Test win streak, their pack has only had two so-so outings, but in those, faced extremely negative and spoiling (even biting and gouging) bruisers.
Australia is not that. Link has Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Ben Mowen and Liam Gill to use against a grizzled Springbok group.
There may not be a more reliably physical number than Duane Vermeulen, a better tackler than Francois Louw, or a more punishing non-Islander ball carrier than Willem Alberts.
The breakdown battle, without the absent David Pocock, should be fairly even.
At scrum time, under the new rules, the Springbok pack has looked superb, both at stabilising and winning their own ball, but also disturbing opponents’ ball.
The Wallabies cannot really dig deep at the prop position, and they cannot expect an impact off the bench.
And one of the few facets that the Springboks are better than the All Blacks at, is line-outs.
This is where Australia will need to be 100 percent accurate.
2. The South African kicking game
From nine, ten and 15, is not as good as it should be.
But it will test Jesse Mogg – if he retains his place.
The biggest difference between the Bulls’ or Stormers’ kick-chase game and the Bok version is that you have the world’s most accurate and powerful nine-ten kicking combo giving the world’s best kick-chaser, Bryan Habana, a real platform for nuisance.
If SA starts Pat Lambie (or even Zane Kirchner), they should have no real problem covering Matt Toomua’s or Christian Lealiifano’s tactical kicks.
3. Springboks’ inability to punish where it hurts
The South Africans won’t punish the Wallbies’ mistakes as quickly or clinically as the All Blacks and in fact the Australians’ best path to victory is to use their advantage in size at the wings and outside centre positions.
But still, this group of Boks can finish.
Habana, Willie le Roux, JJ Engelbrecht, Jean de Villiers and even Bjorn Basson just need a sniff.
I don’t think Mogg or Israel Folau are polished enough yet to deny a Bok side with quick ball inside the Wallabies’ 22.
4. The maul
After the Wallabies’ recent performances, enough said.
5. Morne Steyn’s boot
Ditto.
6. Exhaustion
Yes, a few of the Springboks would have flown from South Africa to Argentina to France to Australia in a month but the Wallabies have played the Lions and the All Blacks on top of a longer-than-usual Super season.
Guys like Ben Mowen and Adam Ashley-Cooper look gassed.
Meyer has some fresh horses (Bismarck du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Lambie, Jan Serfontein, Siya Kolisi, Louis Oosthuizen) to put out on the paddock.
Link can’t dip too far into his reserve front or second rows; and only has the mercurial Quade Cooper and perhaps Tevita Kuridrani for late-match impact.
This is the best time in decades for the Boks to win in Brisbane. They will seize their chance. This is a squad learning to win ugly with their B-game, and often.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.