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Upsets in finals are bad for football

Expert
8th September, 2013
166
4397 Reads

So the mighty have fallen. And fallen. And fallen. Three upsets in the first week of finals, while not unprecedented since the inception of the final eight, is certainly rare enough to raise some eyebrows.

As Australians, we generally love to cheer the underdog.

Most people gave Sydney a genuine chance of upsetting Hawthorn in the first game of the round, possibly more so than any of the other matches.

But the Swans gave us close to their worst football of the season, and Hawthorn decimated them in the second half.

Many thought the gift of a home final at Simonds Stadium for Geelong would be enough to see them straight through to the preliminary final.

It can be argued the players fell into the trap of feeling that way, and weren’t prepared for Fremantle’s defensive onslaught and physical intimidation.

Neutral fans, unhappy at the preferred treatment given to the Cats by the AFL, were gleeful at the Dockers upsetting the established order. Freo supporters, who whinge like few others, went from irate to euphoric in the space of two hours of intense football from their side.

Port Adelaide have been the feelgood story of 2013, their trademarks being a never-say-die effort coupled with incredible belief and unyielding fitness.

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Even so, not many gave them much chance of travelling to Melbourne and toppling a Collingwood outfit that was starting to look dangerous enough for some to paint them as a flag smoky.

For the second time on Saturday, the established order was upset.

While most of us were salivating at the prospect of a Cats v Pies cut-throat Friday night final next week at the home of football, including the Collingwood players, the Power surged early and often.

Port’s pressure was at a level Ross Lyon himself would have been proud of, and their ability to absorb it was even more impressive, exposing a couple of football myths in the process.

The Power lost the tackle count 56-81 and the inside 50 count 43-58. What they did do was corral extremely well and force their opponents to kick high and long, coupled with controlling the ball through short passing when in possession, borrowing something from the Hawthorn gameplan, recording 35 more marks than the Pies.

This was often matched with a play-on-at-all-costs mentality that broke open the Collingwood defence.

Richmond fans have been waiting over a decade to see their team play finals, and they didn’t let them down, accounting for the lion’s share of the 95,000 people on offer at the MCG yesterday.

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The good news was the Tigers performed to the required standard, leading to guttural roars of approval from the ravenous hordes.

The bad news was that it was only for a half and, for the second time in four weeks, they had no answer to Carlton’s run and ball movement once the Blues started playing with freedom.

Richmond’s Plan A, fast, flowing, run-and-spread football, is capable of matching and beating the best sides. Their Plan B, when they slow it down and play tempo, gets them in trouble.

Carlton are the opposite. Their Plan A, call it ‘Malthouse football’, often hasn’t worked. But when unleashing Plan B, call it ‘Ratten football’, they look much more dangerous.

It’s not hard to believe their former coach would have them in a better position than their current.

It’s easy to get sucked in to barracking for the underdog, but the joy of seeing them get up is short term gain for long term pain.

Tommy Robredo ousting Roger Federer from the US Open was all well and good, wowed those watching, and was no doubt pleasing for Robredo and his connections.

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But instead of seeing another potential classic match-up between storied rivals, we got Rafa Nadal cleaning Robredo out 6-0 6-2 6-2. Fans of the sport don’t win in that scenario.

Geelong v Collingwood would have seen a spine-tingling build-up and combustible atmosphere, as happened in previous recent finals between the two.

Geelong v Port will arrive with much less fanfare and depart with a much more predictable result.

Richmond is a side with the gameplan to expose Sydney on a big ground, but instead we’ll see a fired-up Swans despatch an unworthy Blues outfit that has fired their shot.

Some may think it presumptuous to be so flippant about the chances of the underdogs after a week of upsets, but we all know it to be the truth.

Those backing the underdogs this week will be handing back money to the betting agencies.

We’re on track for a couple of cracking preliminary finals, no doubt about it, but we have to get through the lull of the semi-finals first.

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Be careful what you wish for when next cheering that underdog home.

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