If the two AFL semi-finals were anything to go by, both Geelong and Sydney could find it difficult to overcome their preliminary final opponents.
The Geelong Cats, surprise losers to Fremantle in the first week of the finals, rebounded well to defeat Port Adelaide by 16 points, but not before they were given a scare by a team that were not expected to contend at all this season.
The Power, which underwent an overhaul of its coaching staff and administration after a few disappointing years following their most recent September campaign in 2007, took it right up to the opposition in the first half.
Leading by 23 points at half-time, an upset looked right on the cards.
This was the same team that were on the receiving end of the worst ever AFL grand final defeat in history, on this very ground, back in 2007.
That was the only other time the Power and the Cats met at the MCG.
Only five of the 22 players who survived that bloodbath six years ago were represented in this Power side, which put in a more competitive effort in a match which mattered less.
Of those five, Kane Cornes is also the only survivor from the team that tasted the ultimate success back in 2004, though Shaun Burgoyne is still running around at Hawthorn.
This team has the potential to continue to do very well in 2014. Just how they will cope with the pressure of continuing to deliver week-in, week-out will be the most interesting question long-suffering Power fans will want answered.
The Cats were expected to bounce back given that they had the home ground advantage and hadn’t lost to Port since the penultimate round of the 2007 season.
The Cats had already beaten the Power easily both times in the regular season, but this match proved to be as close as any during the Cats’ ongoing dominance of the men from Alberton.
It also proves that the Cats’ off performance at home against Fremantle was simply a one-off.
And should they continue their dominance against Hawthorn on Friday night, you can confidently bet on them becoming the first team since West Coast in 2006 to win the flag after losing their first qualifying final.
But the Cats’ bid to continue their dominance against Hawthorn – one which stretches back to their shock loss in the 2008 grand final – could be derailed if the man who has inspired this dominance is rubbed out of the preliminary final.
Paul Chapman, whose vow “never to lose to Hawthorn again” has inspired the Cats to 11 straight victories over the Hawks, could be suspended if he is found guilty of a head-high bump on Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray.
The Hawks, for their part, will be desperate to end that frustrating losing streak.
If there is any inspiration that Hawthorn desperately need in their bid to end their 11-game curse against the Cats, it’s that Sydney did the same against Collingwood in last year’s prelims.
The Swans had not beaten Collingwood in 11previous meetings prior to the 2012 preliminary final, but the red-and-whites smashed that curse in emphatic fashion en route to claiming the flag.
What Sydney were able to do last year can inspire the Hawks to finally end the Kennett curse. If they did finish victorious on grand final day, it would make up for last year’s 10-point loss to the Swans after being heavily favoured in the lead-up.
Interestingly, the Hawks haven’t lost to the Swans since that last Saturday in September last year, though their dominance has only lasted three matches.
Only when they win ten straight against John Longmire’s men can we then initiate the “Longmire curse” – or the “Colless curse”, if you like.
The only difference is no one from the Swans hierarchy attacked the Hawks for lacking the mentality to beat them, nor did this occur prior to any subsequent matches between the two sides.
The Swans’ premiership defence is still alive thanks to a terrific 24-point victory over lucky losers Carlton at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night.
Injuries have attempted to sabotage their premiership defence throughout the year.
To counter this, the Swans made sure that it would not weaken the team by fast-tracking the rise of many of its young players, namely Dane Rampe, Harry Cunningham (who kicked his first two career goals in the match), Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards, among others.
Rampe has been a revelation for the team this year, impressively filling in the void that was vacated by Alex Johnson’s season-ending knee injury during the pre-season and Rhyce Shaw’s injury struggles over the course of the season.
Adam Goodes, Sam Reid and Lewis Jetta have also spent prolonged periods of time on the sidelines, but Sydney have been able to cope without them for most of the season.
Their absences have also given us an insight into what life will be in Sydney when Goodes, in particular, retires in the next few years.
Jude Bolton will retire at the end of the season but that doesn’t mean we haven’t seen the last of what he can deliver for the team.
His dribbling goal against the Blues on quarter-time was proof of that.
Jarrad McVeigh also showed why he is an important figure in the side, amassing 42 possessions as the Swans won a match which was for the most part dominated by the reigning premiers.
The second half of the match presented a very interesting trend, with not even a point scored at the southern end of ANZ Stadium. Carlton endured a scoreless third quarter, while Sydney also failed to score in the final term.
The Blues, who were only elevated into the finals after Essendon were disqualified, were far from disgraced against the defending premiers.
But the reality is that Mick Malthouse’s men are now winless in interstate finals. It’s also the fourth time in the past five years in which their finals campaign has ended with an interstate loss.
It’s also the third time in five years in which it has ended north of the Murray River, and the second in four in which it has ended at the site of Cathy Freeman’s greatest achievement.
There’s clearly a lot of work for the Blues to do if they are to go one step further in 2014, but what can we make out of year one under Mick Malthouse?
If it wasn’t for Essendon asking the AFL to investigate its supplements program in February, the Blues would not have made the finals and Malthouse’s first season would have been deemed a failure.
Let’s turn our attention back to the match and the Swans’ scoreless final quarter.
It could be suggested that the Swans ‘tanked’ that final quarter with its victory guaranteed, so that it could recharge its batteries ahead of next week’s daunting trip to face the Dockers in Perth.
The Dockers have only lost once at home all year, but the Swans have not lost in the west since ANZAC Day, 2009. The two teams however, did share a draw back in Round 8 at the SCG.
That could be about to change given the Swans’ mounting injury toll, which claimed Kurt Tippett and Tom Mitchell in the first quarter alone of the victory over Carlton.
The Dockers have also earned premiership favouritism on the back of a stunning victory at the Cattery last week.
This will be Fremantle’s second ever preliminary final, the first also coming against Sydney way back in 2006. On that occasion, the Swans were the reigning premiers and boasted more experience than the then-Chris Connolly-coached team did.
This time, it will be Fremantle’s home preliminary final and Ross Lyon’s men will be strongly favoured to move into what would be their first ever grand final.
Should they move into the decider on 28 September, Lyon will be desperately hoping that it’s fourth time lucky after he presided over two losses and a draw while coaching St Kilda between 2007 and 2011.
What will work in his favour is that he is unbeaten against Geelong since the 2009 grand final loss, but his failure to beat Hawthorn (to whom the Saints lost to in the 2008 preliminary final) cancels out the former statistic.
Fremantle have, however, beaten Hawthorn in their only ever finals meeting – an elimination final in 2010, coming just a fortnight after the Hawks had thrashed them by 116 points in Tasmania.
On that occasion, Mark Harvey, the Dockers’s then coach, rested half of the side for the trip east, knowing that a finals berth was already in the bag.
It was a completely different Dockers side that ended the Hawks’ season in Perth on that first Saturday in September 2010.
It was for this tactic that Ross Lyon earned the ire of critics this year, as a second-string Dockers side copped a 71-point hiding from the club he formerly coached, St Kilda, in the final round of the regular season.
So now we know why Fremantle are premiership favourites. There is a big risk of getting thrashed in resting half the side, but it’s for the better of the team’s chances of doing well in the play-offs.
And so, the curtain falls on the seasons of Port Adelaide and Carlton, while the premiership bids of Sydney and Geelong continue on for at least another week.
Six of the last eight premierships have been won by either Geelong (three), Sydney (two) and Hawthorn (one), however Fremantle are attempting to ruin the tri-dominance which dates back to 2005 with a maiden flag.
Anyone could win the flag now. This competition will continue to be as unpredictable as it has ever been.
Bring on the two preliminary finals, and I hope that whichever team you support makes it through to the big dance.
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