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How can Hawthorn be favourites again?

Editor
19th September, 2013
34
1942 Reads

I find it inconceivable how the most famous winning streak in the AFL manages to garner so much attention, but subsequently be so ignored.

When Geelong and Hawthorn meet on Friday night, the Cats will be aiming for their 12th straight win over the Hawks – a streak that has now spanned half a decade.

This dominance was in no way faked or fluked, it was earned and won on the back of a simple reality: when matched up, Geelong is better than Hawthorn.

Now this is not to say the Cats are an overall superior team; Hawthorn have proven themselves a formidable force season after season in recent years.

I am purely talking about their relationship as rivals when placed head to head.

There are 153 unique rivalries that exist within the AFL, many of which toss up surprising results; this is due to favouritism being so often heavily based on recent form and not on the intricacies a rivalry can contain.

The rivalry that exists between Hawthorn and Geelong is unquestionably dominated by the Cats, to an extent that is simply stupid to ignore.

But still, every time Geelong and Hawthorn meet, current form overrides recent history, and Hawthorn enter the match as the favourite.

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And again I ask, how?

Hawthorn’s favouritism is simply undeserved, and to an extent, it is probably unwanted.

Anyone who has experienced the rough end of an unbalanced sporting rivalry (on any level) will understand how much a history of failure can impact the outcome of a match.

As hard as Hawthorn tries to suppress knowledge of Geelong’s dominance, you can be sure memories of the past five years will emerge in more than a few minds as the game draws to a close.

If the game is tight at the end, you must assume history will prevail.

As much as players talk down its significance (I personally get a kick out of Geelong players dismissing the relevance of their dominance as they hold back a smug smile), the history at play here is incredibly significant, and is only amplified by the pressure provided by a preliminary final.

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Now I want to make clear this article is not intended as a prediction for the match – in games that offer such a huge reward, anything is possible.

But when the teams run out on Friday night, I will be looking upon Hawthorn as the underdogs, as Geelong more than deserve the pressure that comes with being the favourite.

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