Is winning the toss that important?

Roar Guru

12th December, 2013

2250 Reads

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Tony Loedi

Roar Guru

12th December, 2013

2250 Reads

There’s been a lot of talk about the importance of winning the toss in this series.

One of the scribes here on The Roar suggested that the captains alternate on deciding who bats and bowls during a series.

For example the home side has the choice to bat or bowl in the first Test, then the away side choosing for the second Test and so on.

This was obviously brought up because of the results from the Ashes contest in England and from the first two Tests of this one.

So far in the seven Tests that have been played, the side that has lost the toss hasn’t won a match. Winning the toss has lead to five wins from seven matches.

So is winning the coin flip that important?

From the small sample size of seven matches it sure appears that way, but lets dig a little deeper.

For a larger sample size I looked at the results for the past five years. I split the records for home and away Test matches.

Australia’s record at home when winning the toss is: Won: 13 Lost: 5 Draw: 1

Losing the toss: Won: 6 Lost: 2 Draw: 3

Not much of a difference here, maybe a little better when they win the toss, but that is to be expected.

Australia’s record away when winning the toss: Won: 6 Lost: 7 Draw: 4

Losing the toss: Won: 3 Lost: 8 Draw: 4

This clearly shows Australia is no where near as good away from home, but they are even worse when they lose the toss in away matches.

England’s record at home when winning the toss: Won: 13 Loss: 3 Draw: 4

Losing the toss: Won: 7 Loss: 1 Draw: 4

Very similar to Australia’s record at home, losing the toss doesn’t really affect their performance.

England’s record away when winning the toss: Won:1 Loss:4 Draw:7

Losing the toss: Won:6 Loss:4 Draw:5

Now this is interesting, it seems England play better away from home when they lose the toss. This is hard to explain but it shows they are a good side playing away Test matches.

The only conclusion that I can make out of both nations’ records is that the Aussies are clearly better when they win the toss in away Test matches.

So its not that surprising that the Poms won the three Tests where they won the coin flip.

But in Australia it shouldn’t make that much of a difference.

For instance the last ashes series played in Australia the team that won the toss could only manage one win for the series, with three wins for the team that lost the toss.

So I wouldn’t be in favour of getting rid of the toss, or making any radical changes in the way we decide who bats and bowls, I dare say things will even themselves out for the series.

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