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2014 is a pivotal year for Stuart Lancaster and England. Lancaster has now had two years in the job, and a surprisingly large amount of good will afforded to him by the media and the general public.
However, recycled utterances about intangibles like culture aside, England need to win some games and play well in the process.
In his defence England has the youngest and least experienced of all the top tier sides, and yet they have drawn a Test in South Africa (more than Australia have managed in the same period), and beaten Australia and New Zealand.
They have also won in France, Scotland, Argentina, Italy and Ireland.
Apart from the routing by Wales last season they have been the most consistent of all the European sides, with most losses being very close run things.
Also, the Six Nations with its history and the fact it’s a round-robin tournament means there is always the potential for a shock result – consider how many times Sir Clive Woodward’s England were toppled by militant Celts.
Lancaster also approaches this Six Nations with key players missing in the form of Alex Corbisiero, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft, Manu Tuilagi and Ben Foden.
That’s potentially a fifth of the starting side, and Corbisiero and Tuilagi particularly are key to the rhythm and direction of the side. If they don’t do well this season then there are a number of excuses to fall back on.
In the plus column, plenty of players have been there for the duration and know what the coaches want and what is expected of them.
Further, all sides experience injuries and this is a final opportunity to introduce players like George Ford, Luther Burrell and Jonny May to the international stage.
Rather now than New Zealand in the summer. Essentially it’s a win-win situation.
Autumn revealed the pack is very competitive, with all players being a robust presence over the ball, and competent with ball in hand too.
The scrum was solid in the absence of Corbisiero, Courtney Lawes adjusted well to running the lineout and Chris Robshaw confirmed his credentials as captain.
There is a good balance to the pack offensively, defensively and technically, although they might potentially struggle against heavier packs like the Scots or the French.
Plus it is a very young pack too; plenty of lessons to be learnt the hard way. The English media may wax lyrical about the pack as if it already compares to the sides of the early 90s and 00s, but it is still very much a developing unit.
With Corbisiero injured yet again, Joe Marler and Mako Vunipola get to renew their rivalry for the loosehead jersey.
I would start with Marler, as he’s started to tick along nicely in Test football, and bring Vunipola off the bench along with other impact players like Tom Youngs and Ben Morgan.
Vunipola is a fine footballer, but he doesn’t yet have that instinctive atavistic desire to scrummage. Nevertheless he is potentially world class, and is exactly the sort of player you want warming up with 20 minutes to go.
I’ve previously stated my preference for Dylan Hartley to start ahead of Tom Youngs and I haven’t seen anything since that has changed my mind.
Youngs is still developing as a hooker, and he’s a good option off the bench. Defensively he is awesome, and his work rate is inspirational, but Hartley is the bigger and more experienced man, plus he has a lineout relationship with Lawes.
It’s also been voiced that he’s a more mature scrummager than Youngs, although he is still standing up in scrums to try and eke out penalties.
It’s got to the stage now where it’s a glaringly obvious ploy which might aggravate some referees.
At tighthead David Wilson is going to miss the first two games at least, which leaves Henry Thomas as the back up to Dan Cole, and England shorn of experience and physical presence.
Thomas undoubtedly has potential, but he hasn’t been reaching that potential at Sale, with Steve Diamond preferring the one-dimensional scrummager Vadim Cobilas. He is very comfortable with ball in hand, but question marks hang over his ability in the tight.
If Dan Cole injures himself prior to the France Test Thomas could be in for a long day in the office against the more compact Thomas Domingo.
Interestingly, he has moved to Bath (although not officially) to challenge David Wilson for his jersey.
The locks select themselves, with Dave Attwood having another chance due to Geoff Parling’s injury.
Ed Slater has been brought in as the fourth lock and has an opportunity to take Attwood’s bench spot – presuming Joe Launchbury and Lawes start again.
Slater has improved physically since his move to Leicester Tigers and is a good athlete for a big man. He carries well, is very, very aggressive and has a good work rate.
He’s not the greatest player at the lineout or restart, but could provide some real impetus from the bench, whereas Attwood is more of a starter. Slater can also cover blindside flanker, which is a fillip.
Were England to struggle at the breakdown or scrum, Attwood would be a useful option off the bench against bigger packs, especially as Slater has an occasional tendency to play like a headless chicken.
Tom Wood and Chris Robshaw are the starting flankers. They dovetail well and are staggeringly competitive, providing an 80 minute nuisance at the breakdown – Tom Wood made the most tackles during the 2013 Six Nations.
Tom Croft, world class talent that he is, fudges the issue of balance and who is captain.
With him injured Wood and Robshaw get to develop their relationship, and England can play a bonafide number eight, not the three together as we saw last year.
Matt Kvesic’s form has also simplified the matter; Robshaw has played well, and generally he hasn’t.
One player I would like to see involved this season is Calum Clark. He gives away unnecessary penalties, but he is unrelentingly physical, and that is something you need to grind out close games, especially with a comparatively lightweight locking partnership.
He also has the added value of having played openside as a youth and can also cover lock at a pinch.
Tom Johnson is the classier player: athletic, intelligent, technically sound, and he performed exceptionally well in South Africa in 2012, but he is not somebody who will intimidate the opposition.
He’s just not physical enough to play six at international level if England start Launchbury and Lawes. He could be a good bench option, however.
At eight Billy Vunipola played well in the autumn, although not as well as some suggested.
Ben Morgan also had some great cameos off the bench, but Gloucester aren’t playing well and so he will be likely to play off the bench again.
Vunipola has huge potential, but he still has a lot of developing to do physically and, despite an impressive start to the season at blindside flanker, he has again started to overplay his role as a carrier, thinking he can run over the top of players when he can’t.
Experience will improve his decision making, however, because he found out recently against Toulouse (for the second time) he isn’t the biggest boy in the playground.
All things considered the pack is in credit, and if it improves on the gains made in the autumn then that will be a real positive because they will face a series of different challenges over the 6 Nations.
Tune in tomorrow for my assessment of England’s backs.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.