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Australia must resist the urge to field an all-pace attack in the Tests in South Africa, regardless of expected green, seaming pitches.
Off spinner Nathan Lyon offers Australia it’s only advantage over the world’s best Test team.
His opposite number Robin Peterson is a handy all-round cricketer, but his left arm finger spin is modest.
Since the start of last year, Peterson has earned just 15 wickets at an average of 41 in seven Tests.
Lyon, meanwhile, snared 27 wickets at 28 in his past seven Tests while showcasing increased assuredness, accuracy and guile.
The 26-year-old has blossomed into a world-class tweaker.
As he demonstrated towards the end of the Test series in India last year and then over consecutive Ashes contests, Lyon has developed an ability to both tie up one end and make important breakthroughs.
In an insightful piece for the Sydney Morning Herald last month, sports journalist Malcolm Knox through statistical analysis revealed an unacknowledged impact Lyon had had during Australia’s 5-0 Ashes triumph.
Knox’s number crunching found that Lyon had been bowling at the opposite end 36 times when an English wicket fell during the Ashes.
That was triple the number of Peter Siddle – who 12 times was operating when another Aussie bowler made a breakthrough – and far exceeded the returns of stars Ryan Harris (19 times) and Mitchell Johnson (23).
This was a hugely significant revelation unearthed by Knox’s analysis.
It underlined what an intrinsic component Lyon had been in the Australian machine which dismantled the Poms.
The spinner’s value has spiked even further as a result of the injury-forced absence of all-rounder Shane Watson for the first Test against the Proteas, and perhaps even the entire series.
Watson may not have taken many wickets during the back-to-back Ashes.
However, his accuracy and reliability ensured that whenever he was called upon by skipper Michael Clarke he built pressure which aided the frontline bowlers.
It is this role which Lyon can fill with aplomb in South Africa.
Clarke skilfully manipulated his quicks during Australia’s stunning rout of England, utilising them in short bursts which heightened their potency and often prevented the English batsmen from settling.
He will almost certainly seek to employ a similar method against the Proteas, particularly at Centurion this week and in the third Test at Newlands.
The pitches at those grounds will offer generous assistance to the fast men.
It is at these venues where Australia will likely consider the option of omitting Lyon in favour of fielding four frontline pacemen.
Young firebrand James Pattinson and swing merchant Jackon Bird would be the players in competition to complement Australia’s veteran pace trio of Siddle, Harris and Johnson.
Were either bowler at their peak then it would make far more sense to include them at the expense of Lyon.
But Pattinson and Bird are both fresh from long layoffs prompted by stress fractures of the back.
Neither has played a first-class match in more than six months.
At his best, Pattinson is an irresistible force with the red ball in hand.
But a handful of limited overs contests, in which he has looked down on pace and searching for rhythm, are not sufficient evidence he deserves to usurp Lyon.
Bird is a canny operator who is well suited to South African conditions.
However, he too is undercooked having taken part in only eight limited overs contests since returning to the game.
Australia must place faith in Siddle, Harris and Johnson to wreak enough havoc in the helpful conditions.
They must also back in Lyon to bowl long, economical spells while that trio attack from the opposite end.
A fourth quick is surplus to requirements.