- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Brace yourself. It’s only twenty-five days until the start of the AFL season, and we’re about to be bombarded with predictions of what may unfold.
These postulations will come from everywhere – the media, the street-corner, the local pub. They’ll especially come from online sports bloggers.
The best way to prove yourself as legitimate and that you know more than everyone else is to come up with something that will happen that no-one else has thought of.
In Australia, we’ve come to know and identify such predictions by the slang term ‘smoky’.
Last week, on Melbourne radio sports station SEN, key AFL media identities, Mark Robinson, Dermott Brereton and Kevin Bartlett all identified North Melbourne as their smoky to make a leap up the ladder this year to become a top four and potential premiership contender.
Nonsense.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a very reasonable opinion to have. Extremely legitimate.
In fact, the factors that should lead to a jump up the ladder for the Kangaroos are so blindingly obvious that it’s harder to miss them than it is to connect the dots.
For a start, thanks to a series of close losses last year, mostly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, most people would agree that North’s percentage of 119.53, ranked sixth in the competition, is a truer reflection of their ability than the tenth place ladder finish and 10/12 win/loss record.
As often as not in recent years, a team with the sixth best percentage has landed in the top four on the ladder. Before the expansion sides came along, a percentage of 119 would often have been the third or fourth best.
Leading into 2013, North Melbourne had what was considered to be the toughest draw, which was somewhat backed up in having to play Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood twice.
They also had Adelaide beat them both times in close matches, once in unforgettable fashion.
This year, they have repeat matches against Adelaide again, along with Melbourne, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs. It looks friendly on paper, and it’s hard to think it won’t become so in reality.
Looking at their record against top eight sides last year, North either beat, matched or established comfortable leads against Sydney, Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood.
The only side missing from the top nine there is Fremantle, who strangled them into submission the only time they met – a not uncommon occurrence for any side taking on the Dockers under Ross Lyon, and my personal premiership favourites this season.
Looking at what North’s best 22 might be, half of them would be considered as having their best football in front of them and should improve this year.
This is a talented core group reaching the perfect blend of age and experience, which includes the likes of Jack Ziebell, Ryan Bastinac, Ben Cunnington, Jamie MacMillan, the Aaron’s Mullett and Black, Lachie Hansen, Nathan Grima, Robbie Tarrant and Sam Gibson.
Father-son draftee Luke McDonald should also have an impact and make them a better team if his assured first showing in the NAB Challenge is anything to go by.
When it comes to North’s more experienced players, all are still at their peak, or even coming off career best seasons. Here, we’re talking about Daniel Wells, Andrew Swallow, Todd Goldstein, Brent Harvey, Scott Thompson, Drew Petrie and Lindsay Thomas.
Nick Dal Santo will now be added to this collection of players, sure to provide a welcome dose of class and finals know-how. His seventeen finals is one behind Harvey, but dwarfs the third-place Petrie of those on the Kangaroos list.
The biggest problem North had last year was contriving to lose the unloseable over and over, leaking goals and unable to prevent opposition sides from gaining momentum and capitalising late in games.
Brad Scott and his coaching staff will surely have spent countless summer hours to correct this problem, and the majority of younger players will also have improved natural maturity and fitness to deal with such match situations.
So, if we look at North as having a ‘real’ base of fifth-7th in 2013, rather than 10th, and the natural progression of a talented list, it’s not a leap to think they should be pushing even further up.
Add in the fixture disparity from last year to this, a proven ability to match the best sides, and an improved list through the draft and free agency, and the maths add up to a top four contender.
None of this is to say that the Kangaroos are a sure thing to make a jump this year. As we’ve seen with Carlton over the last five years, football teams don’t always follow a linear progression of improvement.
The weight of expectation has also brought many an emerging club undone.
But the ingredients are all there for a successful 2014. They are clear and they are obvious. Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking they’re making a bold statement by calling it.