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Over the course of the next 18 days I will preview how I think the 2014 AFL seasons ladder will finish during the home-and-away season.
I think we shall call it Lad-View. Why Lad-View? Because it will probably end up as wrong as it sounds.
So without further ado, let’s start at the bottom with St Kilda.
It pains me to do this as this club has hurt no one, but it does have the best-looking supporters going for it (based on 25 years of football attendance, I believe St Kilda have the most efficiently good looking male and female supporters in the league at 68.29%) so this shouldn’t hurt too much.
But the Saints are in true rebuild mode. And what rebuild mode brings is longer, colder and darker than any Game of Thrones winter could throw at you. A raft of changes hit the Saints, the club conceding that the only way to go up is by going down.
It was a dramatic off-season for the Saints as coach Scott Watters was stood down, replaced by Port Adelaide assistant coach and perennial bridesmaid Alan Richardson.
Proving the magnitude of the clean-out, ruckman Ben McEvoy was unexpectedly traded to Hawthorn in exchange for Hawks midfielder Shane Savage and a first round draft pick.
Three-time All-Australian Nick Dal Santos’ three-year offer from North Melbourne was too good for him to refuse and if that wasn’t enough, locker room larrikins Justin Koschitzke, Steve Milne and club stalwart Jason Blake retired.
With a young list, Richardson will preach manic defence as he has already told the press, trying to get the club’s culture back to what it was in 2009-2010.
Having taken a young Port Adelaide club to the second week of the finals last season and coached at five senior clubs, Richardson is a proven assistant coach. The big question is whether he can do this by himself?
The Saints finished 16th on the ladder with five wins in 2013.
They were 13th in opposition scores allowed for the season, which is excellent considering they won just the five games.
The experienced Sams, Fisher and Gilbert, are still the backbone of the defence, but with their history it makes you wonder whether they have gotten over their off-field antics to commit to another rebuild.
Tom Simpkin looks to be a stable defender in years to come and Dylan Roberton proved valuable.
With fighters around the club like Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna and Nick Riewoldt, it comes as no surprise the Saints were 11th in their average losing margin last season, but can they get their rust-riddled legs going for one more year?
The Saints have picked up exciting young ruckman Billy Longer from Brisbane for peanuts. Shane Savage will help Jack Steven battle in the midfield, where the Saints were third last in contested possessions.
David Armitage, Clinton Jones and Gold Coast recruit (with the coolest name in the league) Maverick Weller will need to step up and help take some of the workload too often carried by too few.
Up forward the Saints were third last in average goals a game and percentage. The retirement of Milne and Koschitzke will mean young forwards Rhys Stanley, Aaron Siposs and Thomas Lee will be in the hot seat, needing to come on fast to relieve Nick Riewoldt’s ageing body (knee).
Let’s not dwell on the negatives though, as some successful drafting will hopefully be the bricks for the club’s future to be built upon.
Coming off an injury-riddled pre-season, No. 3 draft pick Jack Billings will be a jet, while the mature frame of Luke Dunstan is advancing quickly.
If he isn’t too heavily tagged and the Brownlow medal goes to a player not in the finals, then Jack Steven may very well be the No. 1 candidate.
His 26.9 average disposals per game put him in the top 10 in league clearances, handballs and disposals, and we all know that the umpires love midfielders come Brownlow night – 1987 was the last year someone other than a midfielder won.
They do have a favourable draw, playing seven of their first 10 games at Etihad Stadium, and very well could be 2-0 after the first two games against Melbourne and GWS. But I think the long AFL season will take it’s toll on the young Saints list.
At least they’re still the most efficiently beautiful footy supporters going.
Lad-View Prediction: 18th
Individual Predictions
Best and fairest: Jack Steven
Most goals: Nick Riewoldt (even if he only plays home games)
Player to watch: Billy Longer
Thing to look forward to: When the Saints play the Kangaroos
In the hot seat: David Armitage, Jarryn Geary, Tom Lee, Rhys Stanley
Novelty blog award: You guessed it, best-looking supporter base.
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