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The Over/Under: NRL Round 2

Manly's celebrate Tom Symonds' try during the NRL preliminary final between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Manly Sea Eagles at ANZ Stadium. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Pro
13th March, 2014
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With Round 1 of the NRL done and dusted, it’s time to look forward to the second week of games. As teams still get used to playing competitive football after the offseason, a couple of upsets may be on the cards once again.

Rabbitohs (-6.0) over Sea Eagles at Gosford
Souths leapt into premiership favouritism after they held the Roosters to eight points in the opener.

Though it was only the first week of the season, fans should feel confident that the squad will be right in the mix for the minor premiership come September.

With a new five-eighth and Sutton moved to lock, the Rabbitohs managed to completely avoid chemistry issues.

It was a tale of two halves for Manly in Round 1, although it could be called before and after Brett Stewart.

After a dominant first half, their injury-prone custodian was forced to miss the entire second half and the Sea Eagles subsequently gave up a 16-point lead.

Peta Hiku had some unbelievable finals performances but he doesn’t offer the same attacking spark.

Manly looked like a totally different squad when they lost Stewart and with the news that he’s out for a month, their hopes for this game have dwindled.

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Though their forwards played fairly well against Melbourne, the strong Souths pack could prove a lot more difficult.

If South Sydney control the ruck again, it will give plenty of attacking opportunities to their playmakers in Adam Reynolds, Dylan Walker and John Sutton.

A big game from Daly Cherry-Evans is needed to give Manly a real chance.

South Sydney was impressive in their dominance against the defending premiers and will look to continue that performance on Friday Night Football.

The match probably won’t be the 20-point drubbing of Round 1 but Souths can still handle a weakened Sea Eagles squad comfortably.

Cowboys (-2.0) over Broncos at Suncorp
Behind the majesty of Johnathan Thurston, the Cowboys managed to complete a big comeback against Canberra.

The entire team definitely wasn’t playing near their best but if Thurston can play like he did, North Queensland can be in contention against any team in the competition.

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Brisbane travelled south to face Canterbury and were able to seize their first two points of the year.

Though they did get the victory, their performance wasn’t strong and there is a lot of work remaining.

The halves really need some quick development for the Broncos to improve.

After facing off against an inexperienced five-eighth in Round 1, Thurston gets to do it all over again against Josh Hoffman.

The difference in the playmaking abilities between the halves of Brisbane and North Queensland is stark and gives a definite advantage to the Cowboys.

If this game becomes one of field position, the Broncos will be in serious strife as an ineffective kicking game is their achilles heel.

However, there was a legitimate improvement in the Brisbane defence with the outside backs deserving recognition for their performance in Week 1.

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Against two of the best props in the NRL in Matt Scott and James Tamou, the entire Broncos defence will need to be focused if they want to attain victory.

In the first Queensland derby of 2014, North Queensland will overcome the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.

Though Brisbane played well last week, Thurston and the Cowboys are the class of the Queensland teams and will notch up their second win of the season.

Warriors (-9.5) over Dragons at Eden Park
After a heavy defeat at the hands of the Eels, the Warriors will quickly be searching for answers to their performance.

Against the worst defence of 2013, New Zealand playmakers were consistently shut down with Shaun Johnson being a big culprit.

A home game is a good opportunity to forget about Round 1.

In contrast, the Dragons have no interest in forgetting Round 1 as they notched the highest scoring output in Steve Price’s tenure as coach.

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Behind the impressive debut of Gareth Widdop, St. George looked more dangerous than it has in years, albeit against an uninspiring Tigers side.

The Warriors enter this game on the back of a poor defensive performance while the Dragons journey to New Zealand after their best day of offense in years.

Their 20+ margins were unexpected results but it shouldn’t lead to fans quickly rethinking the chances of their teams.

St. George has the potential to dominate the awful outside defence of the Warriors, particularly if Widdop can have another great performance.

However, they gave up 24 points to an ineffective Tigers squad and New Zealand have even more dangerous attacking weapons.

Sam Tomkins looked dangerous and Johnson will be aiming to significantly improve upon his first effort.

The big match-up is in the forwards, where the undersized Dragons have already lost one of their starters in De Belin.

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They need to play well against a Warriors pack which underperformed against the Eels.

Though St. George convincingly defeated Wests, travelling to New Zealand will be a much more difficult challenge.

St. George have the potential to surprise again, but a Warriors team at home looking to avenge its loss to the Eels will show why pundits were calling them a dark horse to make the top four.

Melbourne over Penrith (+8.5) at AAMI Park
Without Cooper Cronk, it seemed Melbourne would have some playmaking struggles against their rival Manly.

Though it was true in the first half, their huge second-half comeback gave the Storm the first golden-point win of 2014. Despite the ageing of the squad, you still can’t count Melbourne out.

Their new signings were out in force against the Knights and now Penrith gets to sit on top of the table until Friday night.

Peter Wallace may have stood out but Taylor and Peachey were both notable for the impact they brought to Penrith. This team definitely has some great talent on it.

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The Storm get their first home game of the season and games in Melbourne have been notoriously difficult for visiting squads.

Behind the re-signing of hooker Cameron Smith and the return of Cooper Cronk, expect the team to be fired up for this one.

The Panthers showed they have a lot of offensive talent and if Jamie Soward can find his game, the team will become even more threatening.

Both teams were dangerous in the second half of their opening games and will try to put a positive 80-minute performance on the field this week.

The battle in the forwards will be important as Jesse Bromwich and Tim Grant will go head-to-head.

Interestingly, both were mentioned in rumours surrounding the Sharks after the loss of Andrew Fifita.

However expect the proven playmaking of Melbourne’s Big-3, in their first game together in 2014, to be vital in the result of this game.

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It’s hard to be certain on the potential of the Panthers after they soundly defeated an injury-ravaged Newcastle side.

Even if they don’t get the win here, an inspired performance should show that they’re a team that could be on the right side of the top eight come September.

Melbourne escapes with the win but Penrith make the game very interesting by keeping it close.

Roosters over Eels (+10.0) at the Sydney Football Stadium
They weren’t able to keep the energy levels up against South Sydney and it left them 20-points down when the game was done.

The pack was dominated in the ruck, the halves were irrelevant as playmakers and the backs were unable to make their mark in the game.

There shouldn’t be any alarm bells going off and additional determination should get them back on track.

The Eels came out quickly and shocked the Warriors, finishing up 36-16 winners in a surprising victory.

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The backline posed a constant threat with their wingers grabbing six tries while the defence of the big men was significantly improved upon last season.

Some might call it an irregular occurrence but there is no doubt that they at least looked good on the field.

After their performance in Round 1, you can imagine that Trent Robinson probably had some things to say in the dressing room. The forwards were dominated, the backs were outclassed and their NSW halves did a disappearing act.

So the Roosters should be expected to come out firing with the intention of reasserting themselves among the competition heavyweights.

The Eels are in for a tough fight but if they can play like they did against the Warriors, they might have a shot.

Their backline was superb in accounting for all seven tries last week and their defensive effort was significantly improved upon last season.

With Williams suspended for a shoulder charge, there is a real opportunity for Parramatta to shock the NRL with another upset.

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Sydney should be out for revenge after their lethargic effort against South Sydney and have last year’s wooden spooners at home.

However, the Eels could make this a competitive one and keep the score close. Despite this, the Roosters still get home with their first victory of the season.

Titans (-9.5) over Tigers at Skilled Park
The Gold Coast took care of business against an under-strength Cronulla side, though they’ll need to play better throughout the season if they want to become a real finals contender.

However, the magic of Albert Kelly was working last week which is essential for the Titans’ offensive gameplan.

After being blown out by the Dragons, Wests have quickly descended into wooden spoon favouritism.

They were missing some of their stars such as Tim Simona and David Nofoaluma, but they add more offense to a team that is in desperate need of some defensive integrity.

With their struggles on defence, the Tigers should be looking at more blow-outs in 2014.

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The Tigers really need to improve their defence for this game, otherwise Kelly will tear them apart.

The squad was missing tackles often against the Dragons and Kelly is one of the most dangerous in the league when he’s allowed to run freely.

Even if Luke Brooks is the star of the future, opposition teams know that a young halfback is almost always a defensive liability which could result in the Gold Coast props, Greg Bird and Nate Myles constantly assaulting his position in the line.

The Titans are a flawed team but they likely won’t be exposed this week against a worrisome Tigers team.

There are some very talented offensive players for Wests, including Simona and Nofoaluma who were out injured in the first round, but it might not matter if the defence doesn’t improve.

Liam Fulton might be the most important player for the team in his role as defensive anchor because they looked lost without him on the field.

It’s hard to feel confident in the Titans winning a game by 10 or more.

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It’s even harder to imagine the Tigers pulling their act together on defence in the span of a week.

If Wests can bring an improved gameplan into this match they have a chance to upset the Gold Coast, but the Titans should win this by a notable margin.

Raiders (+5.5) over Knights in Newcastle
In the NRL, injuries have the potential to break a team at any point during the year. One week into the 2014 season and the Knights are fighting off a slew of injuries to their core playing group.

By the end of the Penrith game, not one original starter of the spine was uninjured.

Though the Raiders gave up a double-digit lead to the Cowboys, there were some positive signs from the squad.

The trip up to North Queensland is among the most difficult away games in rugby league and Canberra showed some legitimate growth in Ricky Stuart’s first game.

With real uncertainty regarding the playmaking capacity of Newcastle in Round 2, the Raiders have a great opportunity to steal an away game. Anthony Milford was dangerous in Round 1 and the Knights might not be able to compete with his ability to create plays this week.

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One match-up to watch is the second row as the Newcastle back row of Beau Scott, Robbie Rochow and Jeremy Smith was their best positional unit while Josh Papalii and Shaun Fensom were two of the better Canberra players last week.

However, unless the Newcastle outside backs can create plays on their own, offense should be hard to come by in this game.

An important element for the Raiders in this game will be the play of Jack Wighton, as they’d prefer to see him improve vastly on his opening performance as five-eighth.

The Green Machine beats the Knights at home as concerns grow over the state of Newcastle without Jarrod Mullen.

The Knights may have held some top four aspirations before the season but now the team just has to stay alive until their star five-eighth can return later in the year.

Bulldogs (-7.5) over Sharks at ANZ Stadium
The Bulldogs were unable to win their first game of the season as the team looked quite inept.

The playmaking problems are creating some serious concerns as it seems like Canterbury doesn’t know where the points will be coming from.

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They might have signed Andrew Fifita for 2015 but he doesn’t solve their issues in the spine.

With an injury list rivalling that of Newcastle’s, Cronulla struggled through to the end of their Monday clash against the Titans.

Without either half, the Sharks lacked discipline or an effective kicking game.

The defence is stout but the club is overly reliant on the offensive impact of the oft-injured Carney.

Cronulla is reeling from another horror week of football news, losing Paul Gallen and Andrew Fifita to different causes while receiving the news that Carney is unlikely to suit up against the Bulldogs.

It sounds like the perfect opportunity for Canterbury to get their season on track.

The trio of Aiden Tolman, James Graham and Sam Kasiano could wreak havoc against the back-ups of the Sharks which is good news for their struggling playmakers.

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With Daniel Holdsworth the only legitimate kicking option, depending on your opinion of Wade Graham, the Sharks could quickly find themselves in trouble on offense.

However, this clash will be focused on Andrew Fifita leaving Cronulla which could cause some bad blood between the sides in Round 2. After a disaster in his first game, the Sharks have to hope he remains committed through the rest of the season.

But his shoulder charge in Round 1 will lead to him missing the match against his new team.

If Todd Carney makes it back then this game will become a lot more even.

As is though, the Sharks will again find it difficult to create the necessary attack to win.

The Bulldogs might not be near their best but they’ll find enough to beat the walking wounded of Cronulla.

If Canterbury is able to find their form, this game could get ugly quickly.

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Record for Week 1 (Lines): 2-6-0

Record for Week 1 (Result): 3-5-0

A poor opening week of tipping. Hopefully there’s a bit of an improvement in Round 2.

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