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Can Hibbert get out of this slump in time to save the Pacers?

Paul George has a huge role to play as the main man for the Indiana Pacers in the NBA. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
Roar Guru
19th March, 2014
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Last season was monumental for the Indiana Pacers. They finished with the third best record in the Eastern Conference at 50-32.

They made it to the conference finals, losing Game 7 on Miami’s court when their lack of offensive consistency (and LeBron James) blew them out of the water.

While the end was devastating, upon reflection the season was a success. Without franchise player Danny Granger for all but the first five games of the season, young superstar-in-waiting Paul George led the team deep into the playoffs.

Last season’s playoffs
The ability of the Pacers to go deep into the post-season and cause Miami all sorts of problems was largely due in to the outstanding performance of Roy Hibbert. Career stats of 11.3 points and 6.9 rebounds became 17.0 and 9.9 in the playoffs, and Hibbert threw in a couple of blocks a game for good measure.

But it was more than pure statistics. Hibbert dominated the paint at the defensive end for most of the 2012-13 season and he raised his game in the playoffs.

His ability to protect the rim and defend at the rim using ‘verticality’ was well publicised and there for all to see.

Hibbert is really tall and really good at defending, so he used those two skills to present a perfectly vertical barrier to those brave enough to attempt to attack the rim.

OK, that is a little simplistic but the fact of the matter is that Hibbert impacted the game at the defensive end.

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Offensively he was above average, but his defensive prowess made him very highly regarded at the beginning of this season.

He was shaping as a similar player to Dwight Howard, in that he was one of the very few NBA players who could impact big games on the defensive end.

This season
Fast forward to this season and Hibbert’s stocks rose as Indiana started the season brilliantly. At the All-Star game they were a league-best 40-12 and Hibbert was doing what he did so well in the 2013 post-season.

The Pacers were flying and the league’s best record and home court throughout the playoffs seemed to be a matter of going through the motions.

Things have have changed and it has coincided with Hibbert experiencing a significant slump.

Since the All Star game, the Pacers are 10-5 and have slipped a half game behind San Antonio in the race for the league’s best record (although they remain three games ahead of the Heat in the East).

Signs of trouble
The Pacers have lost their last six games against teams above .500 and are giving up 101.5 points a game in those games. Hibbert has averaged 8.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2 blocks in March as Indiana fight for top spot in the East and best overall record.

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Breaking down the Pacers record month by month and factoring in Hibbert’s statistics paints a clear picture.

In October/November the Pacers started 15-1 and Hibbert averaged over 12 points, 9 rebounds and almost 4 blocks. In December those numbers slipped to 10-4, 13.4, 7.6 and 1.6; in January they were 10-5, 11.3, 6.9 and 2.1; in February we saw 10-3, 9.8, 7.1, 2.3 and in March 6-4, 8.6, 6.4, 2.0.

Defensive statistics and the Hibbert factor
The numbers fluctuate slightly from the team record but the fact is that the Pacers have been at their best when Hibbert has been effective.

This article suggests Hibbert has been as effective as ever and that the problem is with the other Pacers dropping off.

Interesting theory, but anyone who watched Hibbert in last season’s playoffs would be hard pressed to be convinced that it was a flash in the pan or fluke.

All signs pointed to it being sustained defensive brilliance and offensive competency from someone who was poised to become the next star big man.

And further evidence to support that this is not a team problem – the Pacers’ team defensive statistics remain elite.

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They are clearly #1 in opponent field goal percentage (41.7 per cent), third in opponents three-point percentage (34.7), first in defensive rating, fourth in net rating, second in rebound percentage and first in opponents points in the post.

Conclusion
The NBA season is long, and even the best have their flat spots.

Teams don’t generally panic but it seems the Pacers are worried about Hibbert, so much so that they went out and got Andrew Bynum.

Bynum hasn’t been added for his positive locker-room influence; he has been added because Indiana don’t know that they will get back the Hibbert they had in last season’s playoffs.

The Hibbert who drives their defence and takes them from an inconsistent perimeter-based team to one who dominates defensively and knows that if they score in the 90s, they win the game.

The fact remains that Bynum is a Band-Aid fix for a deep flesh wound.

Perhaps Hibbert’s playoff performance last season was not sustainable and he is really just a solid defensive player.

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In any case, if Indiana is going to beat Miami and have a chance to play for the NBA title, they need Roy Hibbert playing at his very best.

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