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Once again I’d like to posit the three best and three worst players from the latter half of Round 1. I’d also like to reiterate that the approach I am taking here is one based on ‘metric analysis’.
This is approach aims to reveal the ‘True Footy Value’ inherent in a players performance.
This relies on statistical analysis generated by a model that I have developed which is similar to models employed in sports like Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association in the US.
For the sake of brevity I will only discuss here the three best and three worst.
The Best
Grant Birchall (Hawthorn) – True Footy Value 2.48
As a measure of efficiency and true value, Birchall is not only a prototypical modern back line player but one of Hawthorn’s most consistently overlooked stars.
Because the Hawks are prolific offensively and have a slew of more recognisable stars, it is easy to ignore the contribution that Birchall makes.
Moreover because he is not a defensive stopper in the traditional sense. It seems that Birchall is often derided as perhaps ‘soft’ or at least incomplete as a true backman.
His length to make intercept marks and his kicking skills to quickly turn defence into attack really drives the Hawthorn game plan.
Teams hoping to beat the Hawks need to tag this man out of the game arguably more than anyone else on their list.
Jobe Watson (Essendon) – True Footy Value 2.45
As a Brownlow Medal winner in 2012 and the captain of the team commanding the most negative press in the past 12 months, there has been no shortage of discussion about the Bombers and Jobe Watson.
The narrative that comes along with discussion of Watson’s game tends to centre around his wonderful leadership skills and the subjective belief that his game is more impressive as he has to perform in the face of adversity.
Indeed you seldom hear someone evaluate his performance without talking about a wonderful human being he is outside of his job.
Forget his personality for a moment. He’s just flat out one of the best players in the league because he adds objective value to his team, irrespective of how nice he is to talk to.
Much is made of his ‘inside’ qualities as a midfielder. Certainly against North Melbourne he provided contested possession (14 out of 38 total) and clearance at stoppages (seven all up).
However his class and precision cannot be underestimated.
Watson had 38 touches at a disposal rate of 90 per cent against North Melbourne and it was this precision that went a long way to denying the Kangaroos possession and adding value to his own team.
Clinton Jones (St Kilda) – True Footy Value 2.42
I’m glad I have the opportunity to praise Clinton Jones’ game for a couple of reasons.
A) I think he has been forgotten about as a useful senior player as St Kilda have declined since their premiership contending years.
B) His performance was objectively the most valuable for St Kilda, but can barely crack a mention alongside Nick Riewoldt.
Don’t get me wrong Riewoldt was excellent. However, this example illustrates how media and subjectivity can often provide a misleading understanding of where teams get wins from.
St Kilda were actually beaten badly for possession around the ground on Saturday night.
They only had 37 inside 50s and had fewer scoring shots than Melbourne.
Without Jones, who gathered 39 possessions at 84 per cent efficiency and sent the ball inside 50 five times (equal most of any St Kilda player), it is likely the Saints would have lost despite Saint Nick’s best efforts.
The reality when it comes to True Footy Value is that big athletic forwards, as inspirational and hard working as they often are, cannot replace the objective value of players who can win their own ball en masse and use it efficiently.
The Worst
Cam Pedersen (Melbourne) – True Footy Value -0.07
This is probably no surprise to anyone who watched the Melbourne v St Kilda game on Saturday. Usually I like it when my metric analysis contradicts commonly agreed upon subjective assessment but in this case I think by any measure we can all agree that Pedersen was just bad.
His 11 possessions and one contested mark yielded three missed shots at goal including an easy one late in the game that would have kept Melbourne alive.
With 50 more total disposals, nine more inside 50s and three more scoring shots the Demons actually gave their forwards a decent chance to be damaging.
Pedersen’s inability to garner more opportunity from their relative dominance around the ground and to not take the few opportunities he did earn compounded his presence as a truly ineffective player.
Sam Wright (North Melbourne) – True Footy Value 0.06
As has been discussed at length, North Melbourne were desperately underwhelming on Friday night. The focus with North Melbourne, when they are poor, is typically on their lack of defence and pressure around the ball.
As such their defenders often come into view as the main culprits when North loses.
This in my opinion takes some attention away from forward or midfielders in this team that are very ineffective. I believe Sam Wright is one of these players. He managed a goal from seven possessions but also missed twice and had two other turnovers.
Perhaps the issue at North Melbourne is not so much the defensive scheme at the back end of the ground but the effort and defensive pressure from forwards like Wright.
They need to be working to do more than simply convert opportunities handed to them.
Indeed in terms of size and position, Wright should be modelling his game on the likes of Chris Mayne at Fremantle. The gulf however in terms of their off ball work ethic and ability to effect chances for their teammates, is enormous.
Drew Petrie (North Melbourne) – True Footy Value 0.21
Ok so I’m not just trying to pick on North Melbourne here but from a purely statistical perspective they were not good and a major reason for that unfortunately was Drew Petrie.
Certainly his role in the ruck increased thanks to Goldstein’s injury but even Goldstein playing with one arm managed to add more value than Petrie.
In addition to only having three touches, Petrie did not manage to have a solitary clearance or tackle, prerequisites for the modern, mobile ruckman.
Frankly it is games like this one that stop Petrie from being considered among the truly elite players in the league.
Thanks for having a read. Please feel free to contact regarding my metric analysis and ask questions (i.e. tell me I’m wrong) in relation to player rankings and how they are evaluated.
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