Friday night’s match up between Richmond and Collingwood is looming as a must win for both sides if they want to play finals in 2014.
Richmond is sitting in twelfth, whilst Collingwood is thirteenth, both with one win each.
It might sound ridiculous to some that a game in April has so much riding on it but the importance of this match cannot be underestimated. The winner could very easily find themselves back in the top eight at the end of Round 4.
The difference between being 2-2 and being 1-3 is huge. Coming back from a 1-3 start to make the Finals is difficult at the best of times and even harder this year with the amount of teams that will be fighting for the bottom three spots in the eight.
Richmond face a team they haven’t beaten since Round 19, 2007. Since that win, Collingwood haven’t been just been beating Richmond, they’ve been dominating them.
Collingwood’s wins over that time have been by an average of almost ten goals.
If Richmond want to get over the line, they need their second tier players to stand up. This simply hasn’t happened enough so far this year.
The likes of Reece Conca, Orren Stephenson, Ty Vickery and Nathan Foley all need to stand up if selected.
Richmond could have two very welcome inclusions this week. Brett Deledio and Shaun Hampson both missed the weekend’s game against the Bulldogs through injury and could be available this week.
Collingwood has had a very interesting season thus far. After a dismal showing in Round 1 many were writing them off as Finals contenders.
They quickly bounced back in Round 2 with a stirring win over the Swans in Sydney. In Saturday night’s match against Geelong they certainly didn’t lose any supporters, and proved they can still take it right up to the Cats.
Jamie Elliott was terrific against Geelong and almost won Collingwood the match off his own boot. Richmond will need to find an answer for him and Travis Cloke if they are any chance of winning.
Travis Cloke has given Richmond’s backline nightmares in recent times and with key back Alex Rance ruled out, Troy Chaplin, Ben Griffiths and David Astbury will need to be at the top of their game to quell his influence.
The battle of the midfields is a mouth-watering match up. Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Dayne Beams vs Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Dustin Martin.
Whilst the midfield battle is important, I believe the forward line of each team will be the deciding factor in the outcome of this match.
Richmond’s forward line is far from settled. Jack Riewoldt showed us in the second half of the Bulldogs game he should still be the go to guy in the Richmond forward line.
Jack Riewoldt needs to play at full forward. There is no question in my mind that when Riewoldt is at full forward, the Tigers forward line is much more functional and will produce more goals.
Ty Vickery and Jake King have question marks against their names and need to find something if they want to stay in the team.
Collingwood’s forward structure also contains players who need some big games if they want to solidify their spot in the team.
Jesse White is new to the club and I believe he will be a very important player for Collingwood this year. But he still needs to prove himself – a big game against Richmond on Friday night football would be just the time for him to do so.
Sam Dwyer and Jarryd Blair are two small forward/midfielders who need to lift for Collingwood to go places this year. If these two can kick at least three goals a game between them, it releases the pressure from the top midfielders to kick goals consistently.
There is no doubt that this game is big. The winner will be entrenched in the Finals logjam. The loser, well they will be sitting alongside the likes of Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide and Brisbane. And that is exactly where you do not want to be, even if it is only April.
What team do you think will stand up on Friday night and get their 2014 campaign back on track?
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