Having entered the season as serious World Series contenders, things have not gone to plan so far for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014 Major League Baseball action.
Playing in one of the toughest divisions in the American League East, everything has to go exactly to plan if the Rays want to progress through to the postseason proper. I say proper, because there is always the gimmicky wild-card match which the team can use to qualify for the playoffs, as they did last year.
So what has to happen for the Rays to recover and potentially win their division?
Let’s start with the good news. The Rays are just three games behind the New York Yankees in a division that is suddenly struggling. Additionally, they are half a game ahead of defending champions, the Boston Red Sox, who are struggling just as much with the bat as the Rays are.
Unfortunately, the Rays’ offence has not only been as bad as many have predicted, the cornerstone of their play in the past half-decade has been their pitching. Pitching and strong defence have led the team to the playoffs in four of the past six seasons, and the Rays’ pitchers have suddenly been crippled with injuries.
The season-ending injury to Matt Moore after just his second game in 2014 was a huge blow to the team. After bursting onto the scene in the 2011 ALDS against the Rangers, Moore delivered an outstanding second season in 2012. He managed to improve upon this performance last year, becoming one of the best young pitchers in the Major Leagues.
Moore did struggle for command at times, throwing a league-high 17 wild pitches, but that is to be expected from a young, developing pitcher. Moore was seen as a cornerstone of the Rays starting rotation, and the team were hoping to get 30 solid outings from him this season.
Compounding Moore’s injury is the fact that fellow youngster and starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson started the season on the Disabled List after off-season surgery. The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year likely to remain there for at least another month following a recent setback.
Not only did Hellickson start the season on the Disabled List, but as Moore went down, Alex Cobb followed him. Cobb, another outstanding youngster with a career 3.30 ERA, suffered an oblique strain following his April 6 start in which he tossed seven three-hit, scoreless innings. Amazingly, Cobb then pitched seven more scoreless innings under a week later with the injury.
Cobb will likely remain on the DL until early June in a significant blow to the team. Cobb is another pitcher who has been developed by the Rays’ outstanding farm system, and had a touch of manager Joe Maddon’s magic dust sprinkled onto him.
The Rays will miss Cobb, primarily due to the way he manages to befuddle opposing batters with the use of his off-speed pitches. Cobb has a heavy reliance on his change-up, which he throws 33.3 per cent of the time, and his curve ball (20.8 per cent).
In his start against the Reds he pitched five strike-outs, and the batsmen simply could not pick his off-speed pitches. Batters struggle to pick these pitches because their speed is very similar to that of his fast ball – just 5mph slower on average. Additionally, his curve balls dip late and they dip suddenly, making them incredibly difficult to pick.
The Rays have had to rely on Cesar Ramos, Jake Odorizzi and Erik Bedard to fill the starting rotation, joining superstar David Price and yet another youngster in Chris Archer. As expected, Price has been excellent this season, picking up three wins and just one loss in his five starts. Archer has also been outstanding, in all but one of his starts.
Ramos, Bedard and Odorizzi have not fared so well. The Rays are just 2-11 in matches started by this trio and they have a combined 6.30 ERA. That is not going to win a division.
The Rays have had a knack for developing young players, or plucking others from obscurity, allowing manager Joe Maddon to work his magic and turning them into fully fledged starters. However it seems that they’ve been stretched one bridge too far in this situation.
Tampa’s bullpen has also struggled so far this season, and if they hope to move up the AL East standings during the next six weeks they must provide significant support to Ramos, Odorizzi and Bedard.
The Rays do remain one of the best defensive teams in the league, recording just seven errors thus far in season 2014. The Rays’ pitchers need all the help they can get, and hopefully they will continue to get help from those playing in the field.
Most teams are able to overcome pitching issues through superior batting, but not the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have historically been a poor batting side, relying on stingy pitching and superior defence to hold teams to fewer than four runs a match. Tampa Bay is currently just 19th in runs scored in the Major Leagues, 21st in terms of hits and batting just .244 as a team.
The Rays need their anaemic offense to finally start firing, and much of the pressure lies on 2013 AL Rookie of the Year Will Myers and 2008 AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria. Longoria is definitely pulling his weight, having hit .316 and two home runs through 21 games played, but Myers has struggled in the opening stages of his second season in the majors.
Myers has hit just 0.230, a decline from his 2013 batting average of .293. What’s worse is that all of his vital numbers are down – his on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wins above replacement and OPS. The Rays really need Myers to start firing if they are to solve their offensive woes this season.
What makes this Rays’ season all the more frustrating is that the team has shown that they can hit and that they can score runs, they just can’t do it on a consistent basis. The Rays have had periodic offensive explosions throughout the season, scoring 8 runs and 11 runs and 16 runs in matches. They’ve scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Think about that.
I could bore you to death with stats highlighting how bad the Rays offence has truly been, but I think there is just one stat that truly rams home this point. The Rays are leaving 7.71 runners on base per game, which ranks 27th in the MLB. I didn’t want to give you a second stat but this one is just too good not to mention – the Rays have left stranded 4.24 runners in scoring position per game, the worst in the MLB.
These stats prove that the Rays can hit, they just can’t hit consistently and they can’t take advantage of their opportunities to score.
Tampa Bay has one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB. Joe Maddon has managed to turn rocks into diamonds for the past six years, but he faces a unique situation this season. Three of his five starting pitchers are on the Disabled List and two will be there for at least another month. The other will not be back.
Maddon has one of his biggest challenges on his hands if he hopes to keep this team afloat and thriving for the next month. But Maddon is a maestro. He knows how to turn molehills into mountains and hopefully he is able to do the same this season.
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