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The Waratahs are yet to live up to pre-season expectations – unsurprisingly, some might say.
They are currently sitting in sixth position on the Super Rugby ladder – third in the Australian conference, six points away from the Brumbies and three points behind the Force – and they are struggling to put sides away with their attacking rugby style.
They have done the hard yards and could really push for a conference win by the end of the season, assuming their attack begins to fire. I don’t think they’re far off from starting to reap the rewards for all their ball-in-hand play.
Additionally, both the Brumbies and the Force are yet to travel to South Africa and they both have to play the Crusaders in New Zealand. It is hard to win in South Africa no matter who the opposition, and the Crusaders always play the second half of the season with wind in their sails.
The Brumbies in particular have a horror draw over the next four weeks, playing the Crusaders away next week, then the table-topping Sharks in what should be a cracking game at home before a two-week tour of South Africa.
The Waratahs, on the other hand, have already travelled to South Africa and they only have one game left to play across the Tasman.
The Sydney-based team really should have won at least two of their recent losses. Still, the fact remains they are in a playoff position and are poised to make up the difference with a string of home games, two games away to the two worst Australian teams, and only one more weekend away against the Chiefs.
Beating the Chiefs away is going to be a tall task, but otherwise they really do have a favourable finish to the season.
The Waratahs will play six of their remaining seven games in Australia, whereas both the Brumbies and the Force will only play four more games on our soil. If this season has shown anything, home advantage is everything.
Both the Force and the Brumbies really have a much tougher draw to end their respective seasons, culminating in a match against each other. That match could decide which of these three franchises will actually come out on top in this extremely close conference.
The only realistic way to win the competition is to first win the conference, and I am still confident the Waratahs and not the Brumbies or the Force will take that honour in 2014 – but it’s going to be close!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.