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NBA conference finals - the questions that matter

Kevin Durant's arrival in Golden State has the Warriors looking downright scary. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Roar Guru
16th May, 2014
11

Here are some of the burning questions leading into the next games of the NBA conference finals.

Indiana versus Miami

1. Which Roy Hibbert will show up?
No player polarises opinions more than Hibbert. The way he started the playoffs was historically bad for an All-Star. And then in the second round he remembered he was 7’2″ and could dominate the defensive end. Hibbert must play well for Indiana to have a chance, if he plays at his best Indiana are favourites in this series.

2. Can Paul George do three quarters of what LeBron James does?
George has had an up and down season, threatening as an MVP candidate but slumping with his team later in the season. He is a super talented young player on the verge of superstardom, defensively impressive and sometimes offensively potent. We all know what James does, and he will do it in this series and more than likely win at least one game on his own. But can PG24 at least approach LeBron’s level?

3. Does Shane Battier remain in the starting line-up?
Battier was a huge part of Miami’s title run in 2012. The Heat were able to play him as part of a small starting line-up, enabling the team to surround their stars with outside shooting and solid defensive play. In last year’s Eastern Conference finals he was not a factor, as match ups limited him to 16 minutes a game. The Pacers frontline doesn’t necessarily afford the Heat the luxury of playing small ball, so Battier’s role looks to be a crucial subplot within a fascinating series.

4. Can David West continue his stellar play?
West was inconsistent in the first round as Indiana escaped in seven games, but raised his play in the second round and dominated as Indiana won the series in Game 6 with 29 points. Chris Bosh looks to pose a huge challenge in this series, but there is no doubt that an aggressive and well-performing West can place Indiana in a favourable position.

5. Will LeBron get enough help?
LeBron James is the best player in the league, arguably the best since Michael Jordan and a top 10 all-time player already. He generally does what he wants, when he wants to do it and it would be a brave man to bet against him. The fact is that as good as he has been in the playoffs so far, his teammates have been inconsistent. The last two seasons tell you Messrs Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Allen and crew usually rise to the occasion, and they would want to because this series shapes as being an extremely tough challenge.

6. Is home court an advantage?
Of the 13 games Indiana played in the first two rounds, the away team won nine of them. The Pacers have won five of six on the road during these playoffs, and the Heat three of four. Getting home court advantage meant far more to Indiana than it did Miami, who have proven time and time again they can win on the road deep in the playoffs. If this thing goes to seven games, Indiana will be thankful they will play at home but there is much work to be done before they get that far.

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7. Can Dwayne Wade’s body hold up?
No one doubts Wade’s quality, but his body has seen its fair share of bumps and at 32, he is facing a much younger, spryer backcourt in this series. Wade had plenty of rest throughout the regular season and the playoff schedule will give him at least one day off between all games, but the question remains whether he will be operating at close to 100 per cent. If he is, Miami become extremely difficult to beat.

8. Can Indiana regain some semblance of consistency?
Journalists worldwide are thankful for the 2013/14 Pacers. They went from looking to be a 65 win team to a team that was ready to implode. They publicly questioned each other, looked disinterested, played putrid basketball and from all reports pushed Frank Vogel to within one game of being unemployed in the first round when they fell behind 3-2 against Atlanta. At their best they are defensively dominant and one of the best teams in basketball, but if they are even slightly off then this might well be a short series.

9. Will Chris Andersen impact the series?
The Birdman provides something the Heat don’t have – an interior presence, elite defensive big man and someone who can at least nullify an engaged Roy Hibbert. Miami coach Eric Spoelstra chose to leave Anderson on the bench in the second round as Brooklyn didn’t present a favourable matchup, but he might not have a choice but to release the Birdman to fly against the Indiana frontline.

10. Who wins and advances to the finals?
Indiana have home court, Miami have LeBron. The scores figure to permanently live in the 1980s and 1990s in this series, as elite defensive play dominates and both teams dare the other to do something out of the ordinary to win. Paul George is a star and might well be the next big thing, but he will need to wait at least another year before strutting his stuff on the biggest stage. There is not one shred of reliable evidence to make you bet against James and Miami, and when a series is this close and the teams are so evenly matched you generally go for the team with the best player. James is not only the best player today, but the best of the last two decades and will add to his legacy by winning Game 7 on Indiana’s home court.

Prediction: Miami in seven

San Antonio versus Oklahoma City

1. How is Tony Parker’s hamstring?
Last year’s NBA finals turned when Parker tweaked his hamstring in Game 3. Parker is the best point guard in the NBA – his big game record is outstanding and he elevates his game in the post-season. Russell Westbrook is a freak athlete and while Paddy Mills has improved considerably, it is not exaggerating to suggest Gregg Popovich may volunteer to ice Parker’s leg ahead of this series as he must be playing at close to his peak for the Spurs to be confident of progressing.

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2. Will Scott Brooks insist on playing Derek Fisher?
Brooks is a much maligned coach, and OKC’s tendency to self-implode and often look to playing without guidance at crucial stages do nothing but provide ammunition to Brooks’ detractors. His tendency to continue to give minutes to the least effective rotation player in the NBA today remains one of the more consistently puzzling coaching trends in the league today. Put simply, Derek Fisher will be woefully out of his depth on court in this series and Brooks is playing a dangerous game with every minute he gives the veteran.

3. Can Manu Ginobili play consistent basketball?
Manu is widely regarded as the best sixth man of the modern era and one of the best international basketballers in history. His propensity to raise his game in the big moments has seen him regarded as one of the modern day greats but with age comes inconsistency. Last year’s NBA finals series showed the cavern between his best and worst basketball and the Spurs will be hoping he can recapture the play that has made him a Texan legend.

4. Are Steven Adams and Nick Collison ready to step up?
Serge Ibaka has a calf injury and they can tend to linger. Ibaka is a supreme athlete but if it is anything but a slight niggle then the Thunder will turn to Steven Adams and Nick Collison to support Kendrick Perkins in the front court. They will want to avoid playing Kevin Durant at power forward, and will need the bruiser from New Zealand and journeyman from Kansas to play at a level they never have before. Against lesser opposition they could cover average performances from these two but against the Spurs they won’t get that luxury.

5. Is this Kawhi Leonard’s time?
Leonard was a standout in last year’s final series. For a large majority of the series he played LeBron James to a virtual standstill and would have been a serious candidate for the series MVP award had San Antonio held on in Game 6 or snatched Game 7. The Spurs system doesn’t encourage regular season individual dominance, so to look at statistics is misleading. The California native might have averaged career highs in most categories but those numbers don’t stand out, however his value and quality go beyond statistics and a big series from Leonard is to be expected.

6. Will OKC have a reliable third option?
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a dynamic duo. The basketball world may have never seen a point guard quite like Westbrook, or a seven-foot specimen like the league MVP Durant. These two guys should average 60 points between them in this series and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they exceeded that, but it might not be enough unless they get some assistance. Even a fully fit Serge Ibaka would find the going tough against Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw, who are coming off back-to-back shutdowns of Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge in the first two rounds. Reggie Jackson may be the guy the Thunder turn to, and could expose Parker or Ginobili defensively if given the chance.

7. Is Tim Duncan ever going to start declining?
Watch a Spurs game from 2000 and watch one from today and the guy wearing #21 will be as amazingly efficient in either game. The individual brilliance of the near quadruple-double to close out the 2003 NBA finals series was almost incomprehensible, and 11 years later he could probably still impact a game in a similar way but doesn’t need to. All that being said there are three things you can be sure of – the sun will come up in the morning, the government will take taxes and Timmy Duncan is a nightly threat to double-double.

8. Has Kevin Durant ever played better?
For the first five games of the Memphis series, Kevin Durant looked lost. Tony Allen played arguably the best man-on-man swingman defence the league has seen in a decade despite giving up six inches, and the Thunder were within one game of a disastrous first round exit. Then in Game 6 something clicked, the Slim Reaper remembered no one in the world can stop him, and after toying with the LA Clippers in the second round he finds himself one round from possible retribution. The thought of Durant versus James is quite frankly thrilling for all basketball fans, and if Durant can continue playing at a historically, brilliantly efficient level we may well get that matchup.

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9. How one-sided is the coaching matchup?
Gregg Popovich is a legendary coach. History will remember him as a gruff, single-minded and tactically brilliant coach whose expectations of excellence and relationships with his players have fostered the best post-season stretch in North American professional sport. Popovich has developed a system around his three Hall of Famers, but turns role players like Danny Green, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw into critical cogs in a well-oiled machine. Scott Brooks has a great regular season record, but quite frankly is out of his depth in this coaching matchup. If Brooks can keep up with Popovich and create a system where he places three viable options around his two superstars, he will gain the respect of the basketball world. Maybe that world is harsh on Brooks and he coaches to his strengths. Time will tell.

10. Who wins and advances to the finals?
These are clearly the best two teams in the Western Conference, and while it would be preferable that they were both injury free, Parker and Ibaka are not far from cancelling each other out. Home court advantage isn’t significant as both teams have shown they can win on the road. The Spurs have been the best team in basketball all season and play the game as it should be played.

That being said, the Thunder relies on two guys who are unstoppable and could well take control of this series if they start well. While this will be a long series, the best team will beat the more talented players more often than not and while it goes the distance the Spurs will get their shot at revenge and return to the finals.

Prediction: San Antonio in seven

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