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An interesting contest looms on Saturday afternoon as the Carlton Blues look to continue their recent resurgence, while the Brisbane Lions will be hoping the bye can quell some of their recent health and injury issues and allow them to put in a strong performance.
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Carlton have had the wood over Brisbane in recent years, winning the last five contests against them. However an injection of over 480 games of experience into the Lions side (with not a heap going out) coupled with the rest from the bye should allow us to see a more competitive Brisbane outfit this afternoon.
Typically this season the ‘big’ midfielders have run rampant against the Lions, mostly running against young players like Nick Robertson and Mitch Golby or being without a tag at all. The exception was in Round 1 when Tom Rockliff effectively stifled Sam Mitchell while gaining a fair bit of the pill himself. Marc Murphy typically loves playing the Lions, so expect to see some sort of extra pressure put on him by Leppitsch.
We can also expect a scrappy contest with both sides sitting very low in the average disposals per game metric (18th for Brisbane, 16th for Carlton). Whichever side can make the best use of their possession will go a long way towards winning.
As usual, the problems for both sides come at either end of the ground, with a lack of quality talls an issue for both. Expect the Lions to play Brown and Merrett up forward, leading Joel Patfull and Matt Maguire down back to marshall a young defensive group.
The Blues are likely to require Henderson in defence, so expect Waite (who has a good record against Brisbane) and Casboult to be their big men up forward.
The ruck battle looms as intriguing, with Warnock looking the superior tap ruckman but West proving to be more than capable of making a contest and taking the mantle of first ruck for Brisbane.
The Blues should look to take full advantage of the periods Merrett is put into the ruck and get first use of the ball; West’s contested marking ability is something few Lions have so he’ll definitely get his chance down the ground.
Brisbane also typically struggle against zippy forwards and the Blues have named Yarran, Menzel and Garlett on the ground in their forward line. It looks imposing for a defence that often allows multiple goals to be scored quickly against them due to a lack of speed and relative inexperience.
If Carlton are to take home the chocolates they’ll have to do a lot of the damage in ‘red time’, where Brisbane have tired and faltered all season. The Lions are the worst in the competition for goals per game and therefore a couple of quick goals at any point can leave them on the back foot and playing catch up.
Despite all these factors against Brisbane, one would have to give them a sneaky chance. They’re at the Gabba, they got close to Carlton last year and this is Carlton’s third game in thirteen days while Brisbane are coming off the bye. For a team like Brisbane coming off an awful fitness base, this is exactly the kind of situation they’d hope for.
But expect Carlton to be too strong and want this win too much for Brisbane to take home the points. The dream is somehow still alive for Malthouse and co. but today they need a win to make sure of it.
Brisbane have made a raft of changes with six players feeling the axe at the selection table (Lester, Cutler, Raines, Close, Lisle and Robertson), bringing in Maguire, Patfull and Rockliff (both missing the North game with gastro), Harwood, Mayes and upgraded mature-aged rookie Zac O’Brien, former member of the Essendon VFL team.
Carlton on the other hand have stuck to forced changes, with Andrew ‘Carrots’ Carrazzo and Mitch Robinson coming in for Andrew Walker (knee) and Dennis Armfield (calf).
Join The Roar for all the action from the Gabba at 4:40pm (AEST).
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