When it comes to North Melbourne’s 2014 season, talk has centred around phrases such as “which team will turn up?”
Approaching the halfway mark of the season, it seems team’s only consistency is in their inconsistency.
On closer inspection though, 2014 hasn’t been as poor as some suggest.
Of the top eight teams, only Geelong and Fremantle have played as many matches against fellow top eight teams, and both have similar records to North. Fremantle have played seven games for three wins, while Geelong and North Melbourne have both played six for three wins.
Not only do the Roos have a 50 per cent strike rate, two of those wins were interstate and the third was the only win any side has enjoyed over Port Adelaide this year. Throw in last week’s win on the road over West Coast and North’s season thus far could well be described as a success.
The win over West Coast could even be the most important of that quartet. Had the result been reversed, the Roos would’ve given up their spot in the eight to the Eagles. As it is, they approach the turn at 6-4 and West Coast’s season is effectively over.
The club may have looked at three interstate games in the first half of the season as a potential stumbling block. Having negotiated them with success, the remainder of the season is relative downhill skiing, facing only two top-eight teams, Hawthorn and Geelong. Furthermore, their last three away games to be played interstate are against Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide, although they also have home games against St Kilda and Adelaide in Hobart.
With their current success rate they will probably pinch a win against one of Hawthorn and Geelong – I would say the Hawthorn game is the best bet.
North play Hawthorn in Round 16 and, given the state of the Hawks’ injury list, they still may not be at full strength. As well as that, North will likely be coming off their fifth-straight win and with a full head of steam. Looking that far into the future is fraught with danger but that game could be 60/40 in favour of the Roos.
Their record against the bottom 10 teams is, of course, better than against the top eight. They have a 75 per cent winning rate in those matches, with their only loss coming against Essendon in Round 1. With a likely win against Richmond this week that percentage increases to 80.
Without getting bogged down in mathematics, if those rates were to continue for the rest of the season, North will win 10 of its last 12 games, taking it to 16-6 for the season.
Seasons past tell us 16 wins puts clubs in the top four, sometimes even the top two. With form teams like Port, Sydney, Freo and Collingwood ahead of them, the top two would be a hard ask, but the four should be a realistic goal.
So, North Melbourne supporters, stay strong. Your team’s season may be up and down like a honeymooner’s proverbial, but like life itself, it’s never as bad as you think.
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