Having yesterday looked at the teams all but certain to miss this year’s finals, which teams are on the outer but still in with a shot?
The past few weeks of Super Rugby have thrown up some major upsets and surprise results.
The defending champ Chiefs have been beaten twice in the past two weeks. The Sharks remain at the top but aren’t convincing leaders. The Waratahs are becoming the team that they have always promised to be.
The Crusaders blow hot and cold but still remain in the playoff picture. The Brumbies drop down the table and then climb back up.
There are so many unpredictable factors in this year’s competition that it’s difficult to get a perfect pick weekend.
The Bulls have slim to no chance of making the play offs and some tight losses will ultimately define their season. All their losses were by seven points or less besides the first round loss to the Sharks. The final nail in the coffin was the Round 16 loss to the Lions.
They had a disastrous tour with zero wins from four. Even though they picked up four losing bonus points, it wasn’t enough to get them into wild card contention. They were beaten by better teams on the day and couldn’t close out a game. They came close but not close enough. They scored the same amount of tries as the Sharks but lost the tight games, which is the difference in this competition.
The defending champions have been a little out of form of late and the fans are feeling it. They still have a chance to make the play-offs as a wildcard but they’ll lose home field advantage. They have one more home game in the season but find it difficult to win away. They have to work hard and turn things around to make a run at the finals.
The Chiefs are two points out of the top six and need to beat their New Zealand counterparts to make sure they secure a place. The three derby matches involve two teams that sit above them, but not by much. As long as the Chiefs win from now on they have a chance of making it.
The Force have surprised many this season and have always been up there. They were second in the Australian conference until the loss in Round 16 to the Crusaders, but this is just a speed bump in their desires to make their first play offs since their introduction in 2006.
Michael Foley has done wonders with the team and made cult heroes out of some of them. Nick Cummins has stolen headlines but has also backed it up, scoring tries, or “bagging some meat”.
The Force players have made an impact with Ewen McKenzie, with five players called into the Wallaby training squad. Their chances for making the cut-off are good as long as they win their home games and put in a good effort against the Brumbies in Canberra.
They sit one point out of the wild card positions but their negative points difference may play against them if things get really tight.
The top six positions are not guaranteed, especially for the teams from New Zealand. They are so closely packed that any slip up will drop them out of contention.
The Hurricanes and Highlanders are separated by one point and have all to play for in their final matches. The Hurricanes don’t have an easy task in the local derby matches, taking on the Crusaders and Chiefs in their last two games, both away. They didn’t help their cause at the beginning of the season by losing three matches, but have managed to put together some good wins to be in the position they are in.
The Hurricanes have a had a 50/50 season, which is just good enough to keep them in the top six, but they need to step it up. It seems that if Beauden Barrett is on song, the Hurricanes can win any game. But he has been too inconsistent to warrant a winning season. The men outside him are world class, but they need to get the ball to make the big plays. Conrad Smith captains the side well, but sometimes needs Barrett in the game to create the link.
The Highlanders have steadily improved over the season but have lost the tight games. They need to put together a winning streak to challenge for the championship. The team as a whole struggles to close out the big games and have only won by more than eight once, against the Sharks in a brilliant four-try bonus point display.
They have the big name players in the team, with arguably the best young scrum half in the world, backed up by the feisty Fumiaki Tanaka. The Highlanders can beat the tacklers in open play but can’t seem to find the final play to get over the line. A little frustrating but the potential to be New Zealand champions is there, only three points behind leaders Crusaders.
The Brumbies make up the final wild card place and deserve to do so, having been unlucky in some parts of the season. They use a playbook that has Jake White’s fingerprints all over it, but you would have to expect that as he created a finals team almost out of nothing.
The Brumbies aren’t strangers to winning the title and were the premier team of Australia in the early 2000s, before falling from the top for White to pick them up again and give them a sniff at glory. The Brumbies have been involved in some tight games and were capable of winning them until they hit some form slump after beating the Sharks. They snapped this slump against the Rebels but look a little unstable as the pressure builds.
They were leading the Australian conference until the Waratahs decided to make a final run into the play offs and charged to the top.
The Brumbies are far from out of it but need to keep their heads on, win their home games and give a good showing against the Waratahs in Sydney.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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