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Offical AFL player ratings are rubbish

Expert
7th June, 2014
42
1986 Reads

Apparently West Coast’s laboring ruckman Nic Naitanui is more influential than Fremantle genius Nat Fyfe. Meanwhile, inconsistent Hawthorn forward Cyril Rioli is rated higher than Geelong kingpin Steve Johnson.

The AFL website last year launched its official player ratings, “the result of the most sophisticated, detailed and wide-ranging statistical system ever devised for AFL footy”.

These ratings, it said, don’t just measure a player’s statistical output but also take into account the circumstances in which each stat was earned, their effectiveness and a player’s impact over his previous 40 games.

They were devised, in part, to take some of the debate out of who were the most effective players in the competition by disregarding reputations and using numbers as the measuring stick.

To be fair, I cannot argue with the makeup of the current top five players in the rankings.

Gold Coast phenomenon Gary Ablett reigns supreme, followed by Collingwood playmaker Scott Pendlebury, Geelong hard nut Joel Selwood, Adelaide match winner Patrick Dangerfield and Essendon’s ever-reliable leader Jobe Watson.

But from there the rankings get a bit dodgy.

North Melbourne’s Brent Harvey is a champion of the game and enjoying a rewarding vein of form, but is the 36-year-old the sixth-best player in the AFL right now? Not in my book. In fact, he would be hard pushed to feature in my top 15.

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Western Bulldogs midfielder Ryan Griffin is similarly fortunate to be at seven in the AFL rankings. Griffin had an outstanding 2013 season, claiming the Bulldogs’ best and fairest and nabbing an All-Australian guernsey. However, he has failed to back that up and has turned in a rare disappointing run of form this year.

Arguably his side’s most important player, Griffin has averaged just 20 touches a game and kicked only four goals from his nine appearances, as the Bulldogs have struggled.

He definitely does not deserve a higher rating than Sydney warrior Josh Kennedy, who is two spots below him at nine.

Kennedy is one of the most consistent players in the competition and has been outstanding for Sydney this season, averaging 32 possessions (18 contested), seven clearances, six tackles and four inside 50s per game.

The player in the top 10 who most surprises me is Rioli. I have to admit to having long considered the Hawthorn forward to be over-rated. He is a brilliant, mercurial player who has an extraordinary ability to read the play, sublime skills and tremendous defensive assets. But he doesn’t have a consistent enough impact over the course of games to be rated as a truly elite player alongside the likes of Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Kennedy and Johnson.

If I could choose between he or Johnson, who is rated three spots behind him at 13th on the website’s rankings, I would not even consider Rioli.

Johnson used to play a similar role to Rioli and also used to flash in and out of matches. But his value has increased markedly since moving from the forward line into the middle, where his canny vision, sharp decision-making and clinical foot skills make him a devastating player.

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Johnson would not look out of place in the top five of the rankings, and undoubtedly deserves to be above Rioli and Griffen.

But the most curious ranking among the top 25 players has to be Naitanui. He is ranked 22nd, yet it has been debatable at times this season whether he was even in his own team’s best 22. The much-hyped ruckman is also coming off a mediocre 2013 in which he failed to replicate his scintillating touch from the previous year, when he was an All Australian.

The idea that Naitanui is currently ranked as a better or more influential player than his crosstown rival Fyfe is utterly comical.

The Dockers’ midfielder deserves to be placed in the absolute elite bracket of players in the AFL. He won Fremantle’s best-and-fairest last year in a season in which they made their first grand final.

Fyfe was probably the Dockers’ best player in that grand final loss to Hawthorn and has been similarly dominant this season.

The fact he is ranked at 26th, four places behind Naitanui, says a lot about the flaws of the AFL player rankings.

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