With the second-lowest points scored so far this season and Nick Riewoldt kicking 31 out of the total of 105 goals, Saturday’s result highlights the obvious – after Riewoldt, where do the goals come from at St Kilda?
If he was 26 and signed up for a further five years it may not be such an issue, but with the inspirational captain and leading forward nudging 32 by season’s end, how much longer can he carry a non-existent forward line on his own?
In years gone by Riewoldt could rely on some relief from Stephen Milne, who would always bob up and kick a few goals to provide the Saints with another avenue. Since his retirement the Saints have been far too one dimensional and once Riewoldt gets shut down, the scoring really dries up.
So where does all this leave the Saints over the coming years?
Reiwoldt’s biggest asset is his phenomenal work rate and ability to provide both an outlet when coming out of defence and also gut run forward to present a target, often in the same passage of play. In the short term, the Saints need to find other avenues to goal to complement Riewoldt’s roaming role as a half forward.
Beau Maister was tried early in the season, and although he gives a decent contest, he never looked likely to kick more than a single goal.
Tom Lee has shown promise, and his strength and likely place in the Saints forward line in the future is suited closer to the goal square. At 23 and with only 11 games to his credit, he needs to be given every opportunity to find out if he can provide a serviceable target at AFL level. Better to do that now while Riewoldt still commands the best defender each week rather than throwing him to the wolves once Riewoldt is finished.
The key to most successful forward lines seems to be their variety of talls, mid-sized and small forwards, offering their teams versatility and flexibility, making it difficult to shut down all avenues to goal. Here the Saints have the potential tools to develop such a forward line.
Arryn Siposs, Sam Dunnell and Daniel Markworth are not big enough to be key forwards but could provide that mobile option to add variety to a predictable forward line. Each has their own strengths but are still all very raw – Siposs, with 28 games, is the most experienced.
Since Milne’s retirement, the Saints have searched for a small forward to replace him. Adam Schneider, when fit, is a smart goal sneak but is pushing further into the midfield to help improve disposal efficiency and is at the wrong end of the age bracket to be a long-term option.
Terry Milera has shown patches of form and promise in his return to the side in recent weeks, and has at least found the score sheet, while Trent Dennis-Lane is currently the Saints leading goal scorer in the VFL. I’m not sure either are going to be long-term reliable goal kickers, so the continued development of Jack Steven and Jack Billings as forward/midfielders is important.
One glaring deficiency in the Saints forward half this season has been an ability to lock the ball inside forward 50. Too often opposition running defenders have had free reign to repel and set up attacks with only token defensive pressure coming from the Saints forwards. This is surely a massive opportunity for one of the young players to create a position for themselves.
Guys like Brodie Murdoch, Seb Ross and Tom Curren could make a permanent spot for themselves if they can replicate the type of pressure and influence guys like Paul Puopolo and Tyson Goldsack provide to their respective sides.
Even Milera and Dennis-Lane could add an extra dimension to their game by adding this. Imagine if someone lit a fire under Siposs and he started to replicate the type of pressure his forward line coach, Aaron Hamill, used to create.
What of life once Riewoldt retires? That roaming half forward role should be suited to a player with the athletic attributes that Rhys Stanley offers. He is quick and agile for his height and is surely spending every training session and pre-season following Riewoldt around to learn how he goes about his game. If only his football smarts and work rate could more closely resemble that of his skipper. At best, Stanley’s value comes as a second ruckman/forward with the versatility to be a useful piece of the team, rather than an essential cog in the forward line or key forward target.
So for the remainder of 2014 the Saints could add more options to their current attack, with Tom Lee occupying the goal square and Milera at his feet, and one of Stanley or Siposs providing roaming support for Riewoldt across half forward.
A mid-sized target such as Markworth or Dunnell to provide a second leading option inside 50 and a massive focus to increase the pressure inside the forward half would help provide additional avenues. Even a guy like Tom Simpkin, who after the weekend showed he can exert some physical pressure, might be worth a try as a defensive forward.
But is this a successful formula moving forward? Once Riewoldt goes, or his knees give way, who will stand up and contribute when the side needs a lift? The other forwards mentioned above can play a role, and an effective one given the right development, but the Saints need to be aggressive in their recruitment.
Depending on results and draft order they could be in line to snare Peter Wright, Sam Durdin or Patrick McCartin – all look likely forward prospects, although they would take some time to develop. In addition to recruiting one of these talls with their first pick, the Saints really need to pursue another forward target who has a couple of years in the AFL system.
The two most obvious, or realistic, options would be Tim Membrey or Kristian Jaksch. Both have spent a couple of years in the AFL and have a number of key forwards in front of them in the pecking order. Membrey could provide that alternative mid-sized lead-up player, with Jaksch a more traditional option for replacing Riewoldt long term across centre half forward.
The list is a young one and obviously needs time to develop, but the Saints need to be investigating significant resources and efforts into building a successful and productive forward line after their great skipper retires.
Now is the time to be developing a forward line without a sole focus on Riewoldt before it’s too late.
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