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At the beginning of the season I tried to predict which club faced the toughest schedule in 2014. After 11 games we have a much clearer picture.
The strength of each team’s draw is determined by how many wins their opposition has had for the season.
For example, Hawthorn’s opponents have an average of 5.5 wins for the year – the league average after 11 games this season.
Obviously a higher average means a tougher draw. So if 5.5 wins is the league average at this stage of the season, anything above 6 would be considered difficult and anything under 5 would be quite soft.
Below, in order of hardest to easiest, is each team’s strength of draw so far this season.
Fremantle – 6.7 average wins by opponent.
Brisbane – 6.1 average wins by opponent.
North Melbourne – 6.1 average wins by opponent.
Geelong – 6.1 average wins by opponent.
Sydney – 5.8 average wins by opponent.
West Coast – 5.7 average wins by opponent.
Adelaide – 5.7 average wins by opponent.
St Kilda – 5.5 average wins by opponent.
Greater Western Sydney – 5.5 average wins by opponent.
Hawthorn – 5.5 average wins by opponent.
Richmond – 5.4 average wins by opponent.
Collingwood – 5.3 average wins by opponent.
Melbourne – 5.2 average wins by opponent.
Carlton – 5.1 average wins by opponent.
Essendon – 5.1 average wins by opponent.
Port Adelaide – 4.9 average wins by opponent.
Gold Coast – 4.7 average wins by opponent.
Western Bulldogs – 4.6 average wins by opponent.
Fremantle’s record this year is very impressive. To put it into context, after 11 games this season each of their opponents have averaged almost two more wins than Port Adelaide’s.
If this were to continue, Fremantle’s average opponent would finish the season with 13 to 14 wins while Port Adelaide are effectively playing against a 10-win team each week. That’s a huge difference.
North Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney also had to negotiate an especially tough start to the year and are now primed to cash in on an easier fixture.
At the other end of the scale, Bulldogs fans would be disheartened to see their side couldn’t take full advantage of a soft start to the year.
Unfortunately for the Dogs, the draw gets a lot harder from here. In fact, most sides will be facing a role reversal for the remaining 11 games.
I could go into quite a lot of detail on the strength of draw for the rest of the year, but it’s probably best left for a later date. For now, at the midway point of the season, we get a pretty good idea on how each team is travelling by using this simple formula.
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