Earlier in the week we had a look at which clubs faced the toughest draw for the first half of the season. To determine this I used the ‘strength of draw’ statistic, which is simply the average wins each team’s opposition has had.
For example, Hawthorn’s opponents so far this year have an average of 5.5 wins – which is the league average after 11 games this season.
We found out Fremantle, Brisbane, North Melbourne and Geelong had the hardest start to the year, while the Bulldogs, the Suns and the Power had the easiest.
We can apply this same formula for the remaining 11 games to gauge the strength of each teams draw, remembering that up to this point 5.5 wins is the league average.
Below (in order of hardest to easiest) is each team’s strength of draw for the remainder of the season.
Teams and rating (second half season)
Carlton – 6.7 average wins by opponent
Western Bulldogs – 6.4
Hawthorn – 6.2
Melbourne – 5.9
Essendon – 5.7
Adelaide – 5.6
Port Adelaide – 5.6
Gold Coast – 5.5
Brisbane – 5.5
West Coast – 5.5
Collingwood – 5.4
Greater Western Sydney – 5.3
St.Kilda – 5.3
Richmond – 5.3
Sydney – 5.1
Geelong – 4.8
Fremantle – 4.6
North Melbourne – 4.3
On the basis of this list, Kangaroos supporters can start booking their tickets for September. They are a certainty to finish in the eight and should be pushing for a spot in the top four with this draw.
Fremantle look poised to mount a serious challenge for the minor premiership, while Hawthorn will have done a terrific job if they can squeeze themselves into one of the top four spots by year’s end.
The race for the eighth spot on the ladder is probably down to four clubs, in Gold Coast, Essendon, Adelaide and West Coast. With neither of those clubs having a particularly easy draw, you’d expect Gold Coast to hold on to that final spot.
We’ve covered both the first and second halves of the season so let’s add them together and see which clubs have the toughest draw for the full season.
Team and rating (full season)
Carlton – 11.8
Hawthorn – 11.7
Brisbane – 11.6
Fremantle – 11.3
Adelaide – 11.3
West Coast – 11.2
Melbourne – 11.1
Western Bulldogs – 11
Geelong – 10.9
Sydney – 10.9
Essendon – 10.8
St.Kilda – 10.8
Greater Western Sydney – 10.8
Richmond – 10.7
Collingwood – 10.7
Port Adelaide – 10.6
North Melbourne – 10.4
Gold Coast – 10.3
It should be noted that these win totals are based on the first 11 games of the season and they will no doubt be slightly different later on,
However it is still an effective tool in analysing each teams draw for the remainder of the season.
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